Research on How to Improve the Structure of China＇s Property Tax

本文通过对我国现行财产税收入总量及其结构的分析,揭示了近年来财产税占我国税收总额比重不断提高、动态财产税超常增长现象背后存在的风险和隐忧,并针对导致财产税结构失衡的原因,提出了完善我国财产税结构、优化财产税制度及其功能的基本思路与具体对策。     

城市商业银行股权结构与绩效关系及作用机制研究

中国城市商业银行的股权结构具有明显的地方政府直接或通过一致行动人参股的特点,研究这种股权结构与银行绩效之间的关系及其作用机制具有重要意义。本文以2006—2010年间我国非上市城市商业银行为样本,从样本银行网站和金融时报采集数据,设置虚拟变量,构建多元回归模型,实证分析了地方政府、地方融资平台与地方城市商业银行的股权结构、信贷结构、绩效关系及传导机制。本文认为,从短期看,地方城市商业银行背靠政府这一特殊股东,有利于保证其初始成长。但因为地方政府可能出于地方利益和官位升迁的特殊考虑,存在掏空地方城市商业银行的欲望和能力,因此从长期看,应当改变地方政府对城商行的控制局面。同时,要拓宽地方政府融资渠道,完善融资平台运行机制,保证融资平台的还款来源,控制地方金融风险。     

最大熵原理在证券投资组合中的应用研究

为了解决马科维茨(Markowitz)模型中以证券收益率的方差测度投资风险的局限性,本文提出了利用最大熵原理建立证券投资组合优化模型。并用该模型进行了实例分析,结果表明,比均值-方差模型可获得更高的收益。     

Comparisons of control schemes for monitoring the means of processes subject to drifts

Although statistical process control (SPC) techniques have been focused mostly on detecting step (constant) mean shift, drift which is a time-varying change frequently occurs in industrial applications. In this research, for monitoring drift change, the following five control schemes are compared: the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) charts which are recommended detecting drift change in the literature; the generalized EWMA (GEWMA) chart proposed by Han and Tsung (2004) and two generalized likelihood ratio based schemes, GLR-S and GLR-L charts which are respectively under the assumption of step and linear trend shifts. Both the asymptotic estimation and the numerical simulation of the average run length (ARL) are presented. We show that when the in-control (IC) ARL is large (goes to infinity), the GLR-L chart has the best overall performance among the considered charts in detecting linear trend shift. From the viewpoint of practical IC ARL, based on the simulation results, we show that besides the GLR-L chart, the GEWMA chart offers a good balanced protection against drifts of different size. Some computational issues are also addressed.     

城投债为何持续增长:基于新口径的实证分析

包括城投债在内的地方政府债务规模持续增长,是近年来我国经济社会运行中的一个突出现象。作者利用一套新口径(2006—2015年)的城投债基础数据库,克服Wind整理的城投债数据存在的诸多缺陷,并以此为基础,结合地级市财经变量及主要官员信息等,实证分析地方财政压力、官员晋升压力和城市发展压力对城投债扩张的影响。研究结果显示:(1)财政压力并非导致城投债扩张的主要原因;(2)受晋升压力影响,市委书记处于特定年龄段(55~58岁)的地级市更倾向于发行城投债并扩大城投债规模;(3)在承受较大发展压力(包括经济发展水平、工业化、城镇化和固定资产投资等方面的赶超压力)的地级市,晋升压力对城投债规模的刺激效应更为突出。而且,晋升压力和发展压力对城投债扩张的影响在主动负债和被动负债、债券资金用途、债券期限、政府担保、发行地是否属于城市群等方面呈现明显的异质性。上述研究发现为深刻认识中国地方政府债务问题,合理制定相关政策,以化解地方政府债务风险提供了科学依据。     

Exploring clinical metrics to assess the health impact of traffic injuries

In order to allow a deep knowledge of the nonfatal injuries, recently the European Commission adopted the maximum abbreviated injury scale classification which is based on medical diagnosis. This classification will open the door to a new source of information based on international hospital data such as diagnosis-related group and international classification of diseases. In this study, we seek to explore these clinical metrics, which are used to describe the diagnosis and the medical treatment, and to infer consequences of crashes mainly through the costs and severity. Therefore, statistical analyses were applied using generalized linear models selected depending on the type of response variable, i.e. discrete or continuous. Relationships between these metrics were identified revealing for instance that head is the region of the body associated with high severity as well as to higher health care costs. Additionally, a discussion is presented regarding study results and future developments of clinical metrics are pointed out.     

The (lack of) international harmonization of EU standards: import and export effects in developed versus developing countries

This article studies the effect of the lack of international harmonization in agri-food standards on international trade flows focusing on the European Union (EU). The EU is characterized by high level of protectionism, which makes it an ideal case study. We measure the differences in countries’ level of ‘protectionism’ by applying an index of aggregation of non-tariff measures to data on maximum residue levels on pesticides and veterinary drugs allowed by countries on agri-food products. The restrictiveness of countries standards’ is compared with the one imposed by the Codex Alimentarius, which is considered as non-protectionist. The EU emerges as the most rigorous standards setter. The higher standards imposed by the EU affect in particular imports from developing countries, while it facilitates its exports, irrespective of the level of development and standard restrictiveness set by the importing countries.     

Simultaneous-equation estimation with no instrumental variables

For a single equation in a system of linear equations, estimation by instrumental variables is the standard approach. In practice, however, it is often difficult to find valid instruments. This letter outlines a maximum-likelihood method that does not require instrumental variables; it is applied to the estimation of a demand function and an Engel curve.     

Estimating the impact of incidents on urban controlled-access highways: an empirical analysis

An empirical analysis is developed that quantifies the impact of different types of traffic incidents on the speed and maximum flow averages of vehicles on a controlled-access highway. The incident types considered include damage to highway infrastructure, vehicle rollover, crashes (into stationary objects), collisions (with moving vehicles), rain, fog, vehicle breakdowns, pedestrians on roadway, etc. Using real-world data from Chile’s most heavily used urban motorway/freeway, estimates of incident impacts on speed are generated using a multiple linear regression model incorporating instrumental variables to correct for endogeneity. Flow results are then generated using the fundamental traffic equation relating speed, flow and density. A ranking of the impacts on highway traffic of the different incident types based on incident frequency as well as impact size demonstrates that for the real case studied, the incidents with the greatest cumulative effect are (in order of magnitude) vehicle breakdown, collisions and rain.     

转移支付下地方政府科技投入空间效应研究

基于1997-2014年省级面板数据,对我国地方政府科技投入的影响因素与空间效应进行了研究。结果表明：财政分权对科技投入具有积极作用,政府竞争与人力资本投入对科技投入具有抑制作用;当地政府财政分权对科技投入的影响会引起相邻地区出现积极模仿行为,对相邻地区的科技投入产生空间外溢正效应;政府竞争和人力资本投入对科技投入的影响会引起相邻地区出现消极模仿行为,对相邻地区的科技投入产生空间外溢负效应。地方政府有必要合理分配科技投入在财政支出中的比重,处理好政府竞争、人力资本投入与科技投入的关系。