Privatisation and aggregate output: testing for macroeconomic transmission channels

In this paper we examine empirically the impact of privatisation on output in the UK, through macroeconomic transmission channels. While most privatisation studies focus on microeconomic shocks, namely at the firm level, we are interested to see whether a large scale privatisation policy, as the one pursued in the UK in the 1980 and 1990s, had a measurable impact on output. This may contribute to the ex post evaluation of this policy and complement the microeconomic evidence. We use quarterly data from 1979 to 1998 of privatisation proceeds, as our impulse policy variable, and of private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, net government expenditures, as transmission channels, and aggregate output as our final response variable. The econometric methodology is based on Structural Vector Auto-regressive models and Impulse Response Functions. Non-stationarity and cointegration properties of the time series have also been considered. We find that privatisation shocks do not have an impact in the consumption-output model, but have a moderate and transitory impact in the investment and the public expenditures models. Such positive demand effects, however, have not been completely matched by supply side effects, and, consequently, privatisation in the UK did not contribute to a sustained economic growth.

当前中国宏观经济总需求及货币政策调控

从我国三大需求对经济增长的贡献看,内需是中国经济增长的主要动力源,外需为中国经济发展做出了重要贡献。货币政策对总需求的调控主要通过信贷渠道和利率渠道进行传导,但由于我国市场微观主体对利率信号不敏感,利率传导途径受到限制。货币政策利率传导途径有效的前提是微观主体根据货币政策做出决策后须有条件实现自己的选择,并因自己的行为获取利益或承担损失,这样才能建立起传递及时、反应敏感的传导机制,更好实现货币政策的调控目标。因此,要提高货币政策效应,应更多从夯实市场微观基础、健全市场竞争机制等方面来考虑。     

Potential impacts of the devaluation of Nepalese currency: A general equilibrium approach

This paper measures the potential impacts of the devaluation of domestic currency of the small, developing, landlocked and transition South Asian economy of Nepal, which is lagging behind in policy studies. The impacts on growth, distribution, price changes in factor and product markets, and on selected macroeconomic features are measured. Using a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix data, we conclude that devaluation is expansionary but mostly benefits the rich, thus leading to a more uneven income distribution. In general, the expansion of economic activities occurs in agricultural and industrial sectors, whereas services activities contract. However, when the rate of devaluation is high, the agricultural sector also starts contracting. To this typical developing economy, devaluation causes an improvement in saving investment and export/import ratios, whereas the budget deficit widens.     

THE EFFECTS OF DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY ON MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES: A REAPPRAISAL

Abstract Fiscal stimuli to recover? A cascade of academic and layman articles debate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating the economy backed up by different economic models and empirical support. This paper surveys the theoretical predictions and recent empirical vector autoregression evidence on the short‐run effects of discretionary fiscal policy on macroeconomic aggregates.     

To tell the truth or the perceived truth: Structural estimation of peer effects in China’s macroeconomic forecast

This study investigates the strategic interactions among China’s professional macroeconomic forecasters in the context of a static game with incomplete information. Professional forecasters attempt to be more precise than their peers when they are uncertain about others’ ability to forecast, given their own ability to forecast macroeconomy. We then empirically estimate the peer effects using the two-step method proposed by Bajari et al. (2010). The results identify a pronounced peer effect among professional forecasters and specify the asymmetric peer effect exerted by prominent professional forecasters. The results remain valid through several robustness checks. The forecast customers must thus address the peer effects due to competition among professional forecasters when they use forecasting reports.