Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation

This paper investigates whether volatility futures prices per se can be forecasted by studying the fast-growing VIX futures market. To this end, alternative model specifications are employed. Point and interval out-of-sample forecasts are constructed and evaluated under various statistical metrics. Next, the economic significance of the forecasts obtained is also assessed by performing trading strategies. Only weak evidence of statistically predictable patterns in the evolution of volatility futures prices is found. No trading strategy yields economically significant profits. Hence, the hypothesis that the VIX volatility futures market is informationally efficient cannot be rejected.     

Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical VAR model based on the in-sample fit over the majority of New Zealand’s inflation-targeting period. We evaluate the real-time out-of-sample forecasting performance of the DSGE-VAR model, and show that the forecasts from the DSGE-VAR are competitive with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published, judgmentally-adjusted forecasts. The Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior also provides a competitive forecasting performance, and generally, with a few exceptions, out-performs both the DSGE-VAR and the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts.     

旁地产市场宏观调控治“标”更应治“本”

房地产价格的过快上涨直接影响着居民住房问题的解决,房地产市场的异常火爆,也使我国经济的长期稳定发展潜藏着一定的风险隐患。本文透过近年来我国房价飞涨的表象,从更深的层面剖析了导致我国房地产业畸形发展的根源性因素,进而提出加强房地产宏观调控的政策建议：一是地方政府应进一步增强服务功能,落实好民生问题;二是国家应以培育创新创业体系作为经济增长的切入点,不断提高自主创新能力;三是进一步规范与完善资本市场,合理引导资金流向,拓宽投融资渠道;四是加大对住宅的政策性金融扶持力度,改善住房的供给结构,切实解决中低收入居民购房的资金需求。     

房地产市场宏观调控治“标”更应治“本”

房地产价格的过快上涨直接影响着居民住房问题的解决,房地产市场的异常火爆,也使我国经济的长期稳定发展潜藏着一定的风险隐患。本文透过近年来我国房价飞涨的表象,从更深的层面剖析了导致我国房地产业畸形发展的根源性因素,进而提出加强房地产宏观调控的政策建议:一是地方政府应进一步增强服务功能,落实好民生问题;二是国家应以培育创新创业体系作为经济增长的切入点,不断提高自主创新能力;三是进一步规范与完善资本市场,合理引导资金流向,拓宽投融资渠道;四是加大对住宅的政策性金融扶持力度,改善住房的供给结构,切实解决中低收入居民购房的资金需求。     

Macroeconomic policies in a supergame oligopolistic economy

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policies in a general equilibrium system where the product market is modelled as an oligopolistic supergame. It is shown that policies which affect the interest rate, influence the degree of competition and hence the level of output in the economy. The analysis reveals that some macroeconomic policies may have perverse and counter intuitive effects in the system.     

Takeover activity in Australia: endogenous and exogenous influences

The present paper analyses the population of takeover bids for listed Australian companies using quarterly data over a 25-year period to re-examine the predictability of takeover activity and to determine if there is a flow on impact on macroeconomic variables. We examine whether takeover activity: (i) is endogenous; that is, determined by own activity; (ii) is jointly determined by macroeconomic and capital market variables; and (iii) has an exogenous spillover impact across the economy. We find that stock prices and takeover activity share a long-term common trend, the relative success of takeover bids is independent of sharemarket activity, and conclude that aggregate takeover activity is driven by fundamental economic factors rather than by speculative activity.     

生产性过剩条件下中国宏观经济政策取向探讨

目前我国之所以出现生产性过剩，商品过剩为其直接原因，生产和消费关系失调为其根本原因。为此，国家宏观经济政策应由主要调控投资转向主要调控消费，以消费带动投资。     

Tax evasion and financial repression

Using a simple overlapping generations framework, calibrated to four Southern European countries, we analyze the relationship between tax evasion, determined endogenously, and financial repression. We show that higher degree of tax evasion within a country, resulting from a higher level of corruption and a lower penalty rate, yields higher degrees of financial repression as a social optimum. However, a higher degree of tax evasion, due to a lower tax rate, reduces the severity of the financial restriction.     

A theory of racial diversity, segregation, and productivity

Empirical evidence illustrates that diversity generates both economic costs and benefits. This paper develops a theoretical model that accounts for the positive and deleterious effects of heterogeneity. First, an expanded Solow Growth Model demonstrates that the direct effects of diversity can be positive or negative, and depend upon the size of fixed parameter values. Second, diversity also influences individuals' location decisions. Segregation (variation of diversity across regions) always reduces national output per worker, so if diversity induces integration, it indirectly augments productivity as well. Finally, political policies aimed at reducing interaction costs across groups may actually reduce aggregate output per worker by encouraging segregation.     

宏观经济理论中的金融因素:若干认识误区

本文以主流宏观经济学的若干认识误区为切入点,对宏观经济理论中的金融因素及相关问题进行了初步的理论反思。这一反思主要围绕以下六个基本命题展开:一是金融因素在宏观经济中的影响被严重低估,二是主流货币政策框架的致命缺陷源于其政策视野的短期性,三是货币与信用的创造机制存在着本质差别,四是财政机制与信用机制并非独立,五是金融创新指向信用创造并改变了经济金融环境,六是泡沫问题金融化的本质在于杠杆扩大化。这些命题的共同启示是:宏观经济理论必须在纳入内生性金融因素的基础上予以系统重建。