Public information arrival and volatility persistence in financial markets

This paper explores the relationship between daily market volatility and the arrival of public information in four different financial markets. Public information is measured as the daily number of economic news headlines, divided in six categories of news. Statistical analysis of the news data suggests the presence of particular seasonality effects, as well as a strong degree of autocorrelation. Over the period 1994–1998, significant effects of specific news categories on the volatility of US stocks, treasury bills, bonds and dollar were detected. However, the effects – in size and duration – vary by news category and by financial market. It is demonstrated that most of the volatility persistence, as observed by GARCH models, tends to disappear when news is included in the conditional variance equation.     

Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework

This paper analyzes the dynamic interactions between real estate markets, in the US and the UK and their macroeconomic environments. We apply a new approach based on a dynamic coherence function (DCF) to study these interactions bringing together different real estate markets (the securitized market, the commercial market and the residential market). The results suggest that there is a common trend that drives the different real estate markets in the UK and the US, particularly in the long run, since they have a similar shape of the DCF. We also find that, in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, in the UK, only the wealth effect is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. In addition, real estate markets in the UK and the US react differently to institutional shocks. This brings some insights on the conduct of monetary policy in order to avoid disturbances in real estate markets.     

新闻用语语法失范例析

新闻传媒作为语言文字的窗口；对推动社会语言文字的规范具有重要作用。但是令人遗憾的是，一些报刊各类语病充斥其间．造成新闻用语的应用混乱。因此，提高新闻从业人员的业务素质，树立语言文字的规范意识，应当引起有关方面的足够重视。     

新闻价值观的思维方式

新闻价值是新闻传播学中最基本的理论问题。多年来,在新闻业界和理论界,对这个问题展开热烈的论争,但仍是众说纷纭,莫衷一是。其实,新闻价值是新近变动事实信息及时传播以适应于社会需要的潜在素质,是新闻传播者在传播新闻时的一种行动思维,而不是将它当成一把尺子去衡量事物那么简单、容易。据此,我们认为,新闻价值就是一种思维方式。     

舆论监督乏力的成因分析

舆论监督在我国政治和社会生活中扮演着愈来愈重要的角色，但舆论监督近年来却呈现出疲软状态。新闻媒体的批评性报道数量少，监督层次偏低，对突发事件缺乏快速的反应机制等问题是舆论监督乏力的具体表现。造成舆论监督乏力的主要原因是：舆论监督的主体错位，把公众监督变成了新闻媒体的监督；舆论监督立法滞后，新闻管理体制不完善；地方保护主义等反舆论监督的力量削弱了舆论监督的力度等。建立“五位一体”的舆论监督互动机制，将舆论监督的“软监督”变成具有一定强制力的监督，这是在“舆论监督法”未出台的背景下，加大舆论监督力度的理性选择。     

谈现场短新闻的三要素

在信息如潮的时代，人们的生活节奏在加快，新、短、快的新闻更能赢得受众的喜爱。所以提倡新闻记者采写现场短新闻。     

记者思维：营造新闻作品境界的关键

新闻作品是记者以新闻眼观察社会事实并对事实予以反映的精神产品。采写新闻,记者必须将正义直言的历史性思维、辩证深刻的哲学性思维和激情四溢的文学性思维融会贯通,形成复合型的新闻思维。记者的思维是营造新闻作品境界的关键。其中,历史性思维是营造真实厚重的新闻境界的关键;哲学性思维是营造辩证深刻的新闻作品境界的关键;文学性思维是营造浓情多彩的新闻境界的关键。     

“陌生化”理论视角下的新闻同质化探析

目前各大媒体的新闻同质化现象十分严重，新闻的品味和质量日益下降，其内容愈加庸俗、无聊。新闻同质化导致了资源的浪费，并使受众对媒体的忠诚度和信任度下降，也使一部分人对媒体报道的相关内容产生了逆反心理。因此，应从传播者对新闻报道的手段和策略方面，用“陌生化”理论来破解新闻同质化的困境。     

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not previously been analyzed in the literature. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7-countries and for four different macroeconomic variables. Our results show a high degree of dispersion of forecast accuracy across forecasters. We also find that there are large differences in the performances of forecasters, not only across countries but also across different macroeconomic variables. In general, the forecasts tend to be biased in situations where the forecasters have to learn about large structural shocks or gradual changes in the trend of a variable. Furthermore, while a sizable fraction of forecasters seem to smooth their GDP forecasts significantly, this does not apply to forecasts made for other macroeconomic variables.     

Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical VAR model based on the in-sample fit over the majority of New Zealand’s inflation-targeting period. We evaluate the real-time out-of-sample forecasting performance of the DSGE-VAR model, and show that the forecasts from the DSGE-VAR are competitive with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published, judgmentally-adjusted forecasts. The Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior also provides a competitive forecasting performance, and generally, with a few exceptions, out-performs both the DSGE-VAR and the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts.