开发区与企业动态成长机制*--基于企业进入、退出和增长的研究

开发区的高速增长到底是源自寻求“政策租”所导致的短期“虚假繁荣”,还是通过集聚效应推动企业迅速成长而形成的长期表现？回答好这一问题,对于开发区政策的效果评价和进一步完善至关重要。然而,现有研究对此却语焉不详。文章在识别开发区企业的基础上,实证检验了开发区对企业进入、退出和成长的作用,以及开发区增长效应的可持续性,揭示了开发区影响地区经济增长的微观机制。研究发现：(1)开发区会吸引高效率企业进入,并降低开发区内企业的退出风险,从而使得开发区内净进入企业数目显著增加,这意味着开发区政策是吸引企业入驻并加强集聚经济的重要因素;(2)开发区显著提高了企业的就业增长、生产率增长和销售增长,这表明开发区政策和集聚经济的增长效应十分明显;(3)企业“入驻”开发区初期,“政策租”带来了短期的快速增长,而开发区内自我加强的集聚经济对企业成长具有长期的促进作用,这说明开发区的增长效应具有可持续性。文章肯定了开发区实践对企业动态成长的长期积极影响,这不仅为开发区政策绩效的评估提供了更为全面的认识,而且也为开发区的进一步发展和完善提供了重要启示。     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2000-2001年

2000年中国GDP增长速度将超过1999年而预计增长7.95%,从而1999年将构成中国增长型经济周期拐点,中国经济循环从2000年起进入本次经济周期的扩张阶段。     

税收、政府支出与消费变动的关系——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

基于霍尔不确定条件下的消费理论,建立了一个分析消费决策的模型,并利用我国1992-2008年的省际面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示,减税与扩大政府支出都对消费有正向影响;投资收益的增加则会减少消费。在经济衰退时,减税和增加财政支出是提高消费、扩大内需的有效手段。在当前经济脆弱时期,采取积极的财政政策,扩大在民生领域的财政支出,是带动当前经济增长和奠定未来发展基础的最佳政策选择。     

The effectiveness of quantitative easing: new evidence on private investment

This paper examines the effect of Federal Reserve’s large-scale purchases of securities on private investment. We find tentative evidence that quantitative easing (QE) stimulated the level of aggregate investment through the interest rate channel by narrowing corporate bond spread. In particular, the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities were found to have a statistically significant effect on aggregate private investment. Moreover, using a GARCH model, we find that QE has led to a reduction in the volatility of private investment. This finding remains robust with a QE dummy variable as an alternative measure of the unconventional monetary policy. The study also indicates how different aspects of QE influence private investment and its volatility.     

Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries

We compute average markups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions, the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries, show that the markup (i) depicts a pro-cyclical behaviour with productivity shocks and (ii) a counter-cyclical behaviour with fiscal spending shocks. We also use a PVAR, increasing the efficiency in the estimations, which confirms the country-specific results.     

阿根廷贸易政策与汇率制度的错配及启示

上世纪，阿根廷贸易政策与货币政策的错配导致了其宏观经济的不稳定。长期以来，阿根廷深受庇隆主义封闭政策的影响，实行进口替代战略，使其优者变劣，劣者不优。不仅使产业结构失衡，对外贸易长期处于逆差。同时，长期实行僵硬的固定汇率制度但允许资本自由流动，引发了恶性通货膨胀。长期的高消费、低储蓄与进口替代导致了低的资本积累率，政治家权利欲望只能以巨额的财政赤字与高筑外债来维持，当政权无以为继时又靠通货膨胀来掠夺财富，从而引发经济和政治危机的循环。另外，阿根廷在贸易自由化之前允许资本项目的自由化显然是一个严重的错误。     

我国保单质押贷款业务的法律评析

保单质押贷款业务在近年快速发展,而我国现行法律对该业务的调整存在诸多空白。本文认为从质押业务法理分析,具有储金或现金价值的一切寿险或非寿险保单均可作为保单质押对象,但设质的财产权利应限于退保金或现金价值,不应包括保险金请求权。保单质押后,投保人、贷款人和保险人按照质押协议承担相应的权利和义务,同时,投保人在保险合同中享有的部分权利,当有可能减少或流失质物时,该项权利应被限制或冻结。     

From mutual recognition to mutual scientific opinion? Constitutional framework for risk analysis in EU food safety law

Regulation 178/2002 (the so-called General Food Law – GFL) codifies risk analysis as the core principle of the modern food safety policy. This article places the GFL in EU multi-level food safety governance and analyses the impact of risk analysis, the precautionary principle and mechanisms of scientific governance introduced by the GFL on both national and Community legislation. It discusses the case law of the European Courts dealing with scientific evidence and the precautionary principle applied to both European and national food safety measures. The article concludes with some observations on the role of the risk analysis methodology in the Community internal market.     

我国公共政策执行失灵的原因及其矫正探讨

公共政策执行在政策过程中处于十分重要的地位,它直接影响着政策目标的实现。由于许多因素的影响,在政策执行过程中往往会产生失灵的现象,引起经济、政治、社会生活的无序和混乱。文章分析了公共政策执行失灵的原因．并提出了相应的解决对策,以提高公共政策执行的有效一陛。