中国当前劳动力技能短缺与企业应对

随着人口红利减弱,中国技能短缺问题愈发突出,如何有效应对技能短缺成为当前经济社会发展面临的紧迫问题。文章就雇主应对技能短缺的方式提出四个假设,并基于中国人民大学劳动人事学院"中国雇主—雇员匹配数据追踪调查",采用Tobit模型考察了雇佣条件在改善技能短缺上发挥的作用。结果表明：工资对技能短缺的影响并不显著,没有证据显示上调工资能改善企业的技能短缺问题,而签订长期劳动合同有利于缓解高技能劳动力短缺,强化在职培训和劳动保护有助于改善低技能劳动力短缺。本研究为破解技能短缺难题提供参考,企业应对技能短缺应因事为制,避免提高工资的惯性思维,注重高技能劳动者在职业发展上的需求,关注低技能劳动力在劳动保护上的诉求,并保证持续有效的在职培训。     

“和而不群”还是“卓尔不群”?——基于基金网络信息使用的视角

如何识别出优秀的基金管理者,理解其信息决策机制,对于优化资源配置、提升市场效率具有重要意义。本文探究了基金经理对自身所处基金网络中的共享信息的使用程度与其管理能力之间的关系。具体而言,本文通过基金的重仓持股构建了基金网络,采用基金自身交易与其所处网络中其他基金平均交易的偏离程度作为该基金对基金网络中信息使用的衡量。研究发现:(1)对基金网络中信息使用程度较低的基金的业绩要显著好于对基金网络中信息使用程度较高的基金。(2)更高的超额收益主要来源于基金经理优异的选股能力,虽由此承担了更多的异质性风险,却并未增大总体风险水平。(3)基金经理更换数据表明基金对网络内信息的使用程度更多地与基金经理特征相关而非与基金特征相关。(4)网络内信息使用程度直接反映了基金私有信息含量,因此更可能与基金经理能力相关。     

The relationship between white-water rafting experience formation and customer reaction: a flow theory perspective

White-water rafting is an exciting form of water adventure that not only satisfies the need of tourists to interact with nature, but also represents an invigorating recreational experience, thereby explaining why it has become a popular adventure tourism activity in Taiwan. Although a few studies have analyzed multiple tourist tourism experiences, there is still a lack of research adopting the flow experience perspective to understand tourist motivations when participating in rafting activities. Therefore, this study adopts the concept of flow experience to examine the relationships among experience antecedents, flow experience and result variables. The statistical results show that tourist rafting skill, level of challenge of rafting activity and playfulness significantly and positively influence tourist flow experience that, in turn, promotes a positive mood and satisfaction. Moreover, tourist satisfaction significantly and positively influences tourist loyalty. Finally, the research findings and theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.     

贸易自由化、有偏的学习效应与发展中国家的工资差异

本文构建了一个模型来研究贸易自由化对熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力工资差异的影响,从而解释发展中国家工资差异之谜。在贸易自由化之后,发展中国家接触和学习到相对多的与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识,因此,和生产与非熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识相比,生产与熟练劳动力匹配的技术知识的生产力水平上升相对较多。也就是说,学习效应是有偏的。因为技术知识的生产是熟练劳动力密集型的,所以学习效应会导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。同时,有偏的学习效应会使技术进步更偏向于技能密集型,从而进一步导致对熟练劳动力需求的增加,扩大工资差异。     

Probabilistic recalibration of forecasts

We present a scheme by which a probabilistic forecasting system whose predictions have a poor probabilistic calibration may be recalibrated through the incorporation of past performance information in order to produce a new forecasting system that is demonstrably superior to the original, inasmuch as one may use it to win wagers consistently against someone who is using the original system. The scheme utilizes Gaussian process (GP) modeling to estimate a probability distribution over the probability integral transform (PIT) of a scalar predictand. The GP density estimate gives closed-form access to information entropy measures that are associated with the estimated distribution, which allows the prediction of winnings in wagers against the base forecasting system. A separate consequence of the procedure is that the recalibrated forecast has a uniform expected PIT distribution. One distinguishing feature of the procedure is that it is appropriate even if the PIT values are not i.i.d. The recalibration scheme is formulated in a framework that exploits the deep connections among information theory, forecasting, and betting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the scheme in two case studies: a laboratory experiment with a nonlinear circuit and seasonal forecasts of the intensity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon.     

Gauging the development of innovative capabilities in Accounting and Finance students: can they drive the national innovation agenda?

As automation catalyses the shift from number-crunching to more complex roles spanning risk management and strategic decision-making, it is important that higher education is developing the capabilities for Accounting and Finance graduates to successfully contribute to innovation. The study gauges the development of innovative capabilities among students and new graduates using national data from 2012 to 2015. It identifies gaps in the development of certain capabilities, discusses the implications of these and presents strategies for improvement. Findings will inform stakeholders how to better prepare these graduates to contribute to innovation and, ultimately, improve economic growth and global competitiveness in Australia.     

“和而不群”还是“卓尔不群”?——基于基金网络信息使用的视角

如何识别出优秀的基金管理者,理解其信息决策机制,对于优化资源配置、提升市场效率具有重要意义。本文探究了基金经理对自身所处基金网络中的共享信息的使用程度与其管理能力之间的关系。具体而言,本文通过基金的重仓持股构建了基金网络,采用基金自身交易与其所处网络中其他基金平均交易的偏离程度作为该基金对基金网络中信息使用的衡量。研究发现:(1)对基金网络中信息使用程度较低的基金的业绩要显著好于对基金网络中信息使用程度较高的基金。(2)更高的超额收益主要来源于基金经理优异的选股能力,虽由此承担了更多的异质性风险,却并未增大总体风险水平。(3)基金经理更换数据表明基金对网络内信息的使用程度更多地与基金经理特征相关而非与基金特征相关。(4)网络内信息使用程度直接反映了基金私有信息含量,因此更可能与基金经理能力相关。     

IDENTITY ECONOMICS: SOCIAL INFLUENCE AND SKILL DEVELOPMENT

Within the economic literature, studies in identity economics, peer effects, and skill development have all suggested that social influences have an important role in determining choices. In this review, I draw on lessons learned from the identity economics literature to examine implications from the peer effects and skill development literature. I focus on the role of social identity in generating social group effects from peers and what role identity may have in shaping the development of skills from broader environments, parents and peers during childhood and adolescence.     

On luck versus skill when performance benchmarks are style-consistent

We firmly believe that style-appropriate, investible benchmarks not only provide a more parsimonious way of describing manager performance, but also better aligns performance evaluation with the real world performance targets of fund managers’. It is against such benchmarks that managers should be judged. With this principle foremost in our approach, we use style-consistent benchmarks to determine whether any observed alpha produced by a sample of U.S. equity funds is due to skill or to luck. We find that different segments of the market, ranging from large-cap growth to small-cap value, exhibit different levels of skill and luck. Our results also show that the use of standard multi-factor models underestimates managerial ability and overstates the proportion of funds whose abnormal performance can be attributed to chance rather than to skill, when compared against the use of style-consistent practitioner benchmarks. We also find that a single factor performance evaluation model that uses Russell Style indices consistent with the style orientation of a fund and market practice provides a parsimonious way of accounting for fund performance. Finally, our findings should be of particular relevance in mutual fund markets where the risk factors commonly used in the academic literature to evaluate manager performance – SMB, B/M, MOM and others – are not readily available.     

Skill classification does matter: estimating the relationship between trade flows and wage inequality

Empirical work must pay careful attention to how it measures the relative skill abundance of countries and the relative skill intensity embodied in trade flows. This paper compiles a new data set, using income levels, average education, manufacturing wages, and an index of these three variables, to classify countries and trade flows as relatively high skill or low skill. Then, in order to show the importance of skill classification, it uses a reduced-form fixed-effects model to estimate the relationship between trade flows and wage inequality. This specification not only controls for any time-invariant omitted variables, but also permits the inclusion of a large number of diverse countries. When more accurate skill rankings are utilized, results suggest that, in high-skill abundant countries, increased trade with lower-skill countries is correlated with an increase in wage inequality. This relationship is significant and highly robust and is driven by the negative relationship between trade and low-skill wages (instead of a positive relationship between trade and high-skill wages.) Results, however, are highly dependent on the skill classification utilized.