Information flow between prediction markets,polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries

Are the forecast errors of election-eve polls themselves forecastable? We present evidence from the 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showing that the answer is yes. Both cross-sectional and time series evidence suggests that market prices contain information about election outcomes that polls taken shortly before the contests do not. Conversely, election surprises relative to polls too Granger cause subsequent price movements. We then investigate whether the additional information in prices could come from the media coverage of these campaigns, and uncover a set of complex relationships between pollster’s surprise, price movements, and various aspects of media coverage. Prices anticipate the balance and content of media coverage, but not the volume. On the other hand, it is the volume of media coverage, not the balance or content, that anticipates the surprise element in election outcomes. Moreover, Granger causality between prices and election surprises barely changes after controlling for media coverage, and causality from media volume to surprises persists too after controlling for price movements. Taken together, the results suggest that both prices and the volume of media coverage contain independent election-relevant information that is not captured in polls.     

如何解决传媒人才短缺难题

当前,传媒业的激烈竞争实质上是人才的竞争。人才是传媒成败的“牛耳”。解决人才短缺问题是着眼向外,还是着手向内？不排除向外,但主要应下力激活内部人力资源。这样做,可以防止造成新的人才浪费,可以避免爆发恶性人才大战,从而有利于传媒业的和谐发展。那种过份“引进”、忽视“挖潜”的做法是不可取的。     

媒体监督能够起到外部治理的作用吗？——来自中国上市公司违规的证据

本文从中国上市公司违规频率的角度,直接研究媒体监督能否对公司治理产生影响,并挖掘其影响机制,同时详尽分析媒体监督对违规频率不同的公司的治理效果之差异,发掘出媒体监督治理作用的异质性。实证结果表明,媒体监督能够显著降低公司违规的频率,说明媒体监督确实可以起到外部治理的作用。进一步运用分位数回归模型研究发现,对于越是频繁违规的公司,媒体监督的治理效果越明显。另外还发现,媒体监督的治理效果逐年上升,说明我国媒体对上市公司的外部治理作用日益增强。最后本文还发现,媒体监督对公司治理产生作用的机制以行政介入机制为主而非声誉机制。     

教师—新闻从业人员—学生三位一体教学模式探讨

在新闻专业传统的课堂教学中,存在教师实践能力不足的现象,影响了课堂教学效果。实行三位一体的教学模式是解决这一问题的根本措施。这一模式的意义体现在：一是创新理论与实践相结合的教学模式,提高课堂教学效果;二是创新实践教学模式,将实践贯穿于学生学习的始终;三是创新案例教学模式,将最鲜活的案例带到课堂教学中;四是创新课堂作业评价模式,提高学生学习的积极性;五是创新与业界的互动模式,拓展学校的媒介资源。在实施这一教学模式的过程中,要注意注重加强教学管理、灵活安排教务工作、注重对新闻从业人员遴选、转变唯学历主义观念、加大对新闻从业者及媒体兼职教师的激励。     

弧菌显色培养基（ChromID Vibrio）对霍乱弧菌检测效果的探讨

[目的]探讨梅里埃弧菌显色培养基（简称ChromID Vibrio）对霍乱弧菌的检测效果。[方法]通过ChromID Vibrio弧菌显色培养基同硫代硫酸盐-柠檬酸盐-胆盐-蔗糖（简称TCBS）琼脂培养基进行比对,采用阳性菌株直接平板计数、人工污染样品和实际样品检测的方法,对ChromID Vibrio的灵敏性、特异性和检测效果进行了评价。[结果]ChromID Vibrio弧菌显色培养基上霍乱弧菌典型菌落是蓝绿色。阳性菌株直接平板计数及人工污染试验均表明ChromID Vibrio平板的敏感性均比TCBS平板高。对采集的300份实际样品进行检测,都未检出霍乱弧菌。[结论]ChromID Vibrio具有较好的灵敏性、特异性,能提高霍乱弧菌检测效率。     

“微时代”高职院校党建结合点作用的发挥——基于自媒体的对策性分析

通过分析与评估”微时代”到来对高职院校舆情及基层党建工作的重大影响．探索适应“微时代”特征的,以微博、微信、微访谈、微公益等为典型的自媒体在高职院校党建结合点作用发挥中的价值和功能．探索借力自媒体发挥党建结合点作用的对策,提升高职院校基层党建工作实效性,把思想政治工作做到广大党员心里去。     

基于媒体习惯研究的高校音乐美育管理平台探索

本研究基于媒体习惯的概念,通过对现今高校学生音乐媒体习惯的现状及相关影响因素进行实证研究,以探索符合大学生媒体习惯的高校音乐美育平台的构建。研究结果显示,基于网络的音乐传播方式是大学生最为习惯的,同时其他音乐传播媒体和传播方式并没有完全退出大学生的生活;第二,低年龄的大学生表现出更为活跃的、多样化的音乐媒体习惯;第三,器乐的学习会减少大学生与音乐电视媒体的接触行为,增加其通过音乐会、乐谱、人际传播的音乐接受途径;第四,性别方面,女大学生相对于男生会选择更多样化媒体习惯来聆听音乐;第五,音乐类型方面,西方音乐的爱好者具有明显的网络媒体选择习惯。     

Riding the US wave: spectrum auctions in the digital age

Given its significant technological advantages compared to analog broadcasting, digital television (DTV) will be the television system of the future. However, it requires a full replacement of analog television sets by digital receivers, as DTV can only be watched with special equipment. In order to make this transition happen smoothly without losing the analog television audience, both signals have to be simulcasted until a substantial coverage with DTV broadcasting has been achieved. Australia and the US meanwhile have established a regulatory framework to lead this transition towards the end of analog broadcasting, the so-called analog switch-off. Part of the US regime is the FCC's obligation to reassign analog frequencies after the switch-off has taken place by means of auction. Spectrum auctions, however, originate not from the US but from New Zealand, where they have been used since the end of 1989 and ever since been subject to legal and political criticism. The article outlines the principles of both the DTV and spectrum auctions regulation and shows the links between both areas of telecommunications regulation. It concludes by suggesting that the analog switch-off is a unique opportunity to reconsider current spectrum policies, as it frees large amounts of the radio spectrum that are today occupied by analog broadcasting and will soon be subject to one of the biggest frequency reassignment processes in the history of telecommunications regulation.     

Targeted advertising as a signal

This study presents a signaling model of advertising for horizontally differentiated products. The central ingredients of the model are two important characteristics of advertising—targeting, and noisy information content. The theory yields interesting results about the informational role of targeted advertising, and its consequences. First, targeting can itself serve as a signal on product attributes. Second, the effectiveness of targeting depends not only on firms knowing consumer preferences, but on consumers knowing that firms know this. This creates a distinction between strategies of targeting and personalization. Third, the effectiveness of targeting in equilibrium may (far) exceed the information contained directly in the targeted message. Fourth, information content is not, however, superfluous. Specifically, when ads contain no information, a targeting equilibrium does not exist. Together, these results reveal how advertising conveys information both through the content of the message and the firm’s choice of advertising medium. Furthermore, the model is robust to the various critiques of prior work on ads-as-signals: namely, that ad content is irrelevant, ad exposure is unnecessary, and the choice of ads as signals is inherently arbitrary.

Supplier integration in new product development: Computer mediated communication,knowledge exchange and buyer performance

In new product development (NPD), the buyer–supplier relationship is changing. Suppliers are becoming an integral part of the design team. This study investigates the effectiveness of computer-mediated and face-to-face communication channels on knowledge exchange between buyer and supplier firms, and ultimately buyer NPD and market performance. Open innovation literature and media richness theory are used to develop hypotheses which are then empirically tested using data collected from 157 R&D project managers from U.S. manufacturing firms. To date, empirical studies on the link between supplier integration and buyer performance show conflicting results. Structural equation modeling found a significant positive link between knowledge exchange and NPD performance, measured both in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, and a significant positive link between effective and efficient NPD and market performance. A surprising finding is that contrary to media richness theory, email can perform like face-to-face communication transmitting rich information and having a positive relationship to knowledge exchange between buyer and supplier. It was also found that with face-to-face communication, knowledge exchange fully mediates the relationship with effective NPD while with email communication knowledge exchange fully mediates the relationship with efficient NPD. Video conferencing was found to have no significant effect on knowledge exchange and the effect of web-based tools was significant and negative. The implications of these findings in theory and practice are discussed.