延迟退休对城镇职工养老保险收支影响的净效应估计——基于2025年起渐进式延迟退休年龄的假设

鉴于延迟退休对养老金收支有多重影响,本文假定2025年起以"每4年延迟1年"节奏,逐步将男(女)养老金正常领取年龄(NRA)从60(55)岁提高至2049年的65(60)岁,利用中国未来分年龄人口数的完整估计数据,估算了延迟退休对城镇职工基本养老保险收支影响的净效应。估算结果显示,延迟退休为2050年争取到了近25%的制度赡养比下降空间,养老压力高峰期大大推迟。无论延迟与否,未来养老金收支缺口规模都很大,但延迟退休对抑制缺口扩大仍有显著效果,特别是在短中期,每年的收支缺口会因此减少40%~70%,但2050年后的远期效果明显减弱。建议尽早实施渐次延迟退休,减少工作退休的强制性,尊重国情允许男女差龄退休;加强养老金财政补贴长期规划,减轻远期财政兜底压力;加强养老金缴费与受益的精算联系,大力提高基金投资效率等。     

Barriers to the development of medical tourism in East Azerbaijan province,Iran: A qualitative study

The purpose of the present study was to determine factors impeding the development of medical tourism in East Azerbaijan province, Iran. The data were derived from interviews with 16 key informants. Data analysis of the study was conducted through employing the software MAXQDA-12. The results show that marketing, international issues, culture, transfer, brokerage, management, and policy problems are the main barriers to the development of medical tourism. It seems that East Azerbaijan province should provide necessary context for the participation and investment of private sector in the field of medical tourism. Further, it should design and implement long and short-term strategies in proportion to the problems raised.     

基于BP神经网络的“三公”经费支出研究

以国家税务总局系统2011—2018年的"三公"经费数据为研究样本,对其近几年"三公"经费的实际支出和预决算差距进行分析.针对"三公"经费预决算差距情况,利用BP神经网络,将历年"三公"经费支出数据作为神经网络的输入,将下一年的实际支出作为神经网络的输出,通过神经网络的学习和训练,建立一个"三公"经费支出预测模型,提高"三公"经费预算准确度,为下一年"三公"经费的预算提供一定参考.     

Health spending and public pension: evidence from panel data

This article empirically investigates the determinants of aggregate health expenditure in a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005. We differ from most existing studies by testing some new determinants motivated by recent theoretical advances in the literature. We find that a one percentage increase in public pension payments per elderly person leads to approximately a one third percentage increase in aggregate health spending, and this effect is significant and robust across a variety of model specifications. A back of the envelope calculation based on this estimate suggests that the expansion of the public pension programme on average accounts for approximately over one fifth of the rise in aggregate health expenditure as a share of GDP in the set of OECD countries during 1980–2005. In addition, we find that the estimated effect of GDP per capita in our model ranges from 0.66 to 0.80, which is consistent with the results from some recent studies, and thus further reinforces the finding in the literature that health care is not a luxury good.     

Competitiveness attributes of a medical tourism destination: The case of South Korea with importance-performance analysis

This study aims to explore the importance and performance of medical tourism destination competitiveness (TDC). The aims were achieved by collecting empirical data on the perceptions of stakeholders in the medical tourism industry in South Korea. Results from the importance–performance analysis (IPA) revealed that medical TDC is primarily influenced by medical treatments and services, destination attributes, and tourism-specific factors. This study not only enhances tourism literature, but also contributes significantly to the existing literature on competitiveness. The study provides useful marketing insights for medical tourism suppliers in South Korea and countries in similar situations with the relevant industry.     

Barriers to business relations between medical tourism facilitators and medical professionals

This paper examines facets of the developing business relations between two important actors in the supply-chain of transnational healthcare: medical tourism facilitators and medical doctors (MDs) practicing privately and internationalising their services. The empirical focus is Greece, an emerging destination for medical care. Drawing on the sociology of the professions as an analytical framework, rich qualitative data reveals a conflictual aspect in the relation between the two actors, and informs the literature on transnational healthcare of barriers to market development. Particularly, MDs practicing privately often resist what is perceived to be medical tourism facilitators' pressures to control the 'rules of the game' in the submarket which inhibits their collaboration. The paper contributes, thus, to the sociology of the professions by bringing to light a new challenge for MDs engaged in the transnational business arena, represented here by the facilitators; and encourages tourism practitioners to consider MDs' self-understanding, attitudes, and expectations.     

Dental tourism: Examining tourist profiles,motivation and satisfaction

Despite the overwhelming interest in medical tourism research, knowledge in dental tourism, which is its subspecialty, remains limited. This study is the first to measure tourist profiles, travel motivation and satisfaction among inbound dental tourists in Malaysia. We purposely sampled twelve selected private dental clinics in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Melaka and Penang; and distributed the questionnaires to their inbound dental tourists. A total of 196 inbound tourists responded to the questionnaire, mainly from Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Europe. In order of importance, the main motivation factors were dental care quality, dental care information access, and cost-savings. Tourists were extremely satisfied with dental care services received in the country. While dental care quality, dental care information access and supporting services positively influenced tourist satisfaction; cost-savings and cultural similarities had negative influences. Based on the research findings, we propose some managerial and marketing recommendations.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

Filling a dietary data gap? Validation of the adult male equivalent method of estimating individual nutrient intakes from household-level data in Ethiopia and Bangladesh

Many researchers use data from Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (HCES) to estimate individual food and nutrient intake when individual dietary data are not available. They assume that food is allocated within households according to members’ proportional energy requirements relative to an adult male (called an adult male equivalent, or AME). This study sought to validate AME-based estimates of individual consumption of calories, protein, iron, and animal source protein (ASP) across 10 age-sex categories, using data from Bangladesh and Ethiopia containing both household and individual-level consumption data. The study also assessed the accuracy of adjusting for meal partakers and physical activity levels (PAL), and compared energy-weighted AMEs to nutrient-specific AME predictions.Energy AME-based predictions of nutrient intake were generally accurate within ten percentage points of individually reported intakes, but were less accurate for infants 6–23 months and children in Bangladesh than for other demographic groups. AME predictions were more accurate: (1) in Ethiopia than in Bangladesh, (2) for predicting intake of the three nutrients rather than ASP, (3) for estimating nutrient intake rather than adequacy, (4) using energy-weighted AMEs rather than nutrient specific weights, and (5) using moderate PAL for youth and adults rather than high PAL. Adjusting for meal partakers did not consistently improve the AME-based predictions. Energy based AME estimates from household data can produce a useful proxy of average intake for certain population subgroups, however individually measured dietary assessment remains the best approach to identify groups at risk of nutrient inadequacy.