浅析规范影子银行发展的有效途径

随着经济改革进一步深化,中国整个金融行业格局发生巨大的变化,影子银行体系规模迅速扩大,成为金融体系的重要组成部分,在促进实体经济发展方面发挥了不可替代的作用,同时也蕴含着不可忽视的风险.本文将从中国影子银行发展现状入手,分析其产生原因、对经济的影响,并提出如何规范我国影子银行发展的对策和建议,以促进金融体系持续、快速和健康发展.     

A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CONTAGION RISK IN BANKING

The recent financial crisis has focused the attention of scholars and policymakers on how to improve financial stability through better macro‐prudential regulation and supervision. In this paper, we compare the existing theoretical and empirical literature on contagion through the banking system. It is argued that the structure of the interbank market, the size of banks, the linkages among them, the level of correlation of their investments and the transparency of the regulator are key factors in determining the possibility of contagion. We discuss the different findings and present avenues for future research.     

Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth

We propose a method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the downward impact of recessions on banking activity. This method uses an event-study approach and a multiple-equation identification and estimation technique. In contrast to earlier research, we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises. The extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates. The results, based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises, suggest that it is the size of the crisis that matters for economic growth. Lower credit and money growth during crises cause GDP growth to decline.     

银行效率的决定因素：跨国实证

本文基于1990—2009年间68个主要国家和经济体的面板数据，从管理效率、市场竞争性和盈利能力三个基本方面对影响一国银行业效率的相关因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：从宏观经济政策来看，保持宏观经济的持续稳定增长，稳步推进资本账户开放，将有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率；从银行产业发展来看，银行业效率的提高需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上，防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生；从制度文化发展来看，加强产权保护，促进社会信用文化水平的提升，将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。     

The duration of new firms in banking: an application of Cox regression analysis

This paper studies the duration of two cohorts of entrants in the Italian financial intermediation industry. Using the Cox (1972) Proportional Hazards Model, it analyses the link between duration of each newborn firm and its start-up size, as well as a series of industry-specific characteristics. It emerges that not only did regulatory reform in 1990 result in a process of branch proliferation and industry concentration, but it also set in motion a pre-entry selection mechanism. Conversely, before completion of the regulatory reform, in 1989, entry was possible even for very small firms, and larger new entrants survived longer than their smaller counterparts, and this independently of the features of spatial and structural competition. First version received: Nov. 98/final version received: Oct. 99     

DOES MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION EXIST IN THE MENA REGION? EVIDENCE FROM THE BANKING SECTOR

The goal of this paper is to empirically assess the level of banking competition in selected Middle East and Northern African (MENA) countries. The analysis employs the estimation of a non‐structural indicator (H‐statistic) introduced by Panzar and Rosse and draws upon a panel dataset of eight MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) over the period 1997–2012. The empirical findings are robust towards three different panel data econometric techniques (Ordinary Least Squares, Pooled Generalized Least Squares with Fixed Effects, and Generalized Method of Moments) and consistent with other similar studies, providing sufficient evidence in favour of a banking monopolistic competition regime. Furthermore, the estimation of three other alternative measures of competition (Lerner index, adjusted Lerner index, and conduct parameter) provides similar results, revealing that the banking sector in the MENA region is characterized by a low level of Significant Market Power (SMP). Overall, the analysis shows that, despite similarities in the process of financial regulatory reforms undertaken in the eight MENA countries, the observed competition levels of banks vary substantially, with Algeria and Morocco consistently outperforming the rest of the region.     

Marketing in Russia

ABSTRACT

This paper offers a study of the development of the commercial banking system in two East European countries. Based on surveys conducted in Hungary and Poland, the authors discuss elements of the competitive market structure in the banking sector. Findings indicate that the commercial banks in Hungary and Poland have become more competitive, but there are differences between the two countries, especially in the way that the banks use sources of foreign funds.     

天津滨海新区房地产业发展和住房保障体系研究

住房是人的基本权利，各国政府均十分关注。住房保障是市场经济必不可少的补充，是房地产发展的重要组成部分。滨海新区人口规模的扩大、经济的高速发展对住宅需求持续增加。然而，滨海新区在房地产市场发展过程中也暴露出一些问题。本文研究了滨海新区房地产业和住房保障体系的经济背景和社会背景，剖析了深圳和浦东新区以及英国、日本、新加坡和我国香港地区的住宅经验。通过比较分析，提出完善滨海新区房地产业和住房保障体系的具体措施。     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

新巴塞尔协议与银行审计风险

新巴塞尔协议强化了银行风险管理理念，对银行业建立完善的内部风险制度提出了更高的要求。为适应新巴塞尔协议全面实行后带来的冲击与挑战，银行审计的理论和方法也需要改进。本文主要探讨了新巴塞尔协议对我国银行业的影响，以及银行审计的改进措施。