国际金融中心演进对国家福利效应的实证检验

本文利用伦敦、纽约、东京三个国际金融中心及其相应国家的大量数据,通过固定效应模型检验方法对国际金融中心演进水平与东道国福利水平之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果显示,国际金融中心银行业的发展会对东道固的居民收入水平、消赍水平和国家财政收入水平有显著为正的效应,而证券业的发展对东道固福利水平的效应不明显,国际金融中心的演进对降低东道国失业率也没有作用.     

我国投资政策的省际差异效应:基于SVAR模型的估计

以各地的人均实际GDP、实际投资、消费者价格指数等为变量,本文建立了一个结构向量自回归SVAR模型。脉冲响应模拟结果显示,我国的投资政策存在明显的省际差异效应,投资对东部省份经济增长的推动作用最大,其次是中部,对西部的影响甚微。各地人力资本水平的差别是造成投资政策省际差异效应的主要原因。为了加快中西部落后省份的发展,充分发挥投资政策对区域协调发展的促进作用,在加大对中西部物质资本投资力度的同时,要着力提高其教育,特别是中学教育的水平。     

个人信用风险评价系统的统计量表法

本文围绕信用风险统计量表构建的评价测算系统,概要阐述其构造方法与系统运行机理,对其中基本数据结构与算法体系作出明确描述,并对系统开发设计要点给予解析说明。     

权限系统在电子商务系统中的应用

通过介绍权限系统的定义、目标以及访问控制模型(包括自主访问控制模型、强制访问控制模型＆基于角色的访问控制模型),提出了与一种时间相关的基于角色的访问控制模型,并讨论它在电子商务系统中的应用.     

货币“迷失”与我国货币、汇率政策选择

考察1985～2003年我国货币资金的“迷失”现象,可发现这种货币的迷失本身是由货币供给的内生性导致的,尤其是由于很大一部分迷失的货币没有进入实体经济部门、没有形成有效的货币供给导致的。我国大量存在的货币资金迷失现象动摇了蒙代尔—弗莱明模型和我国货币政策关于货币供给外生性的假设前提,这一方面使得蒙代尔不可能三角不再绝对成立,另一方面也削弱了我国货币政策实施的效果,货币政策当局在制定货币政策时有必要对此有所关注。     

金融行业监管费征收对比分析与思考

截至2007年上半年,金融行业资产规模增长迅速,在我国分业监管的框架下,各行业对应的监管部门普遍采用征收监管费的模式。本文就保险、证券、期货和银行等不同行业的监管收费模式进行了对比分析,比较了不同监管部门的监管策略和不同行业的监管模式,从而为我国金融行业的监管创新提供参考。     

Taizhou Model： Institutional Innovation and the Development of Private Economy

Based on the case of Taizhou City in Zhejiang Province, the present paper investigates the mechanism of the interaction between the local government and private enterprise in the process of regional economic development. We identify the ＂Taizhou Model＂ as a model of institutional innovation and the development of private economy, which is private sectorinduced and local government-promoted. Indeed, the impact of such mechanisms has had a significant influence on the reforms and development of China＇s economic system.     

电网建设项目融资租赁基准收益率的确定

在电网建设项目融资租赁中,出租人进行投资决策时首先面临的问题就是确定项目融资租赁的基准收益率。采用资本资产定价模型(CAPM)与加权平均资本成本法相结合的方法,计算出了电网建设项目融资租赁的基准收益率。该方法不但适用于电网建设项目融资租赁,同样适用于其他行业的融资租赁项目。     

Exponentially weighted information criteria for selecting among forecasting models

Information criteria (IC) are often used to decide between forecasting models. Commonly used criteria include Akaike's IC and Schwarz's Bayesian IC. They involve the sum of two terms: the model's log likelihood and a penalty for the number of model parameters. The likelihood is calculated with equal weight being given to all observations. We propose that greater weight should be put on more recent observations in order to reflect more recent accuracy. This seems particularly pertinent when selecting among exponential smoothing methods, as they are based on an exponential weighting principle. In this paper, we use exponential weighting within the calculation of the log likelihood for the IC. Our empirical analysis uses supermarket sales and call centre arrivals data. The results show that basing model selection on the new exponentially weighted IC can outperform individual models and selection based on the standard IC.     

The effects of quantification on persuasion in unfamiliar contexts: The case of information systems controls

The purpose of this study is to more fully understand when quantitative analyses are more persuasive than qualitative analyses. Forty-seven executives responded to an experiment where they evaluated a business proposal recommending an increase in the information systems controls budget, where potential benefits were presented via either a quantitative or qualitative analysis. When the executives were familiar with the context, the quantitative analyses were more persuasive. However, when the executives were less familiar with the context, qualitative analyses that were framed negatively were more persuasive than quantitative analyses. These findings are important theoretically and pragmatically. From a theoretical standpoint, I demonstrate that familiarity with the context predicates how quantification affects decision-makers. In addition, I offer evidence that qualitative analyses that emphasize what has been, or could be, avoided may be a viable persuasive tactic when the decision-maker is unfamiliar with the context.