Herding,momentum and investor over-reaction

In this paper we study the impact of noise or quality of prices on returns. The noise arises from herding by market participants beyond what is justified by information. We construct a firm-quarter-specific measure of speculative intensity (SPEC) based on autocorrelation in daily trading volume adjusted for the amount of information available, and find that speculative intensity has a significant positive impact on returns. Both cross-sectional and time series variation in SPEC are consistent with conventional wisdom, and with implications of theories of herding as in DeLong et al. (1990, J Political Econ 98(4):703–738). We find that high-SPEC firms drive the returns to momentum trading strategies and that investor over-reaction is significant only in the case of high-SPEC firms.

Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa

South Africa is one of the emerging market countries that have received a relatively large amount of foreign capital since the mid‐2000s. In South Africa's case, these inflows were partly used to build the country's foreign exchange reserves, but more particularly to finance continued large current account deficits. During the course of the past two years, however, adverse domestic political developments, combined with the potential negative impacts of the unwinding of quantitative easing policies and the normalising of monetary policy in the United States on emerging markets in general, has raised the spectre of a sharp slowdown in foreign capital flows to South Africa and an associated reversal of the current deficit. This paper explores the potential impact of such a development on macroeconomic conditions in South Africa. The analysis consists of macroeconometric model‐based alternative scenarios backed up by both the international evidence on the impact of such events and South Africa's own history.     

Competitive price-cutting momentum and pricing reactions

In light of the increasing interest in understanding the behavioral side of competitive decision making, this paper examines how the price-cutting momentum (PCM) created by other competiors' reactions to an initiator's price cut influences pricing decisions. We explore the PCM construct and present the results of a study examining the effect of PCM on the price recommendations of retail grocery pricing executives. We find that PCM influences pricing reactions inboth low-search and high-search markets. Competing explanations of the results are considered.The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Department of Sponsored Programs and Research at the University of South Carolina and the Crane Professorship at the Ohio State University.     

Export Currency Pricing and Fiscal Multipliers

This paper develops a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the implications of the use of foreign currency in export pricing for fiscal policy in East Asian economies. The result shows that external currency pricing amplifies the effect of an exogenous government spending shock on output. The impact and cumulative multipliers are larger under external currency pricing. However, the result depends on the government policy regime. When the government allows for a systematic response of government spending to public debt, the multipliers in the medium-term are smaller under external currency pricing.     

动量货币与传统货币指标的理论与经验分析

简单加总的货币指标早已受到理论和实践的挑战,而主流国家的各种改革方案均没有取得成功.其原因是西方学者偏重货币的资产功能,忽视到货币的交易功能,对货币的基本认识存在偏差.宇宙中不存在绝对静止的事物,货币的本性是运动.物理学的动量定理与经济学的交易方程式可以进行类比.笔者尝试建立了动量货币的指标,初步的经验分析结果富有启发意义.货币的重要性依赖于它的数量和速度.西方学者排斥货币的真实速度,宏观经济学的基本结构存在重大缺陷.     

Implications from Biased Probability Judgments for International Disparities in Momentum Returns

Momentum is a consistent phenomenon in financial data from the majority of markets around the globe. One prominent exception is the Japanese market, where returns from a momentum-investment strategy are nonexistent. The authors investigated international differences in the representativeness heuristic, which is one potential driver of momentum. After observing sequences of a random walk, subjects give probability estimates for the direction of the respective next change. The experiment was conducted in Japan and in Germany. For a subgroup of participants with lower cognitive abilities our results are perfectly in line with international momentum evidence.     

中国A股市场动量效应和反转效应：实证研究及其理论解释

本文模拟上证180指数交易,通过考察动量和反转策略的收益情况验证中短期动量效应和反转效应的存在性,并分析不同市场形势下的效应差异,之后根据流通市值将A股市场划分为大盘股和小盘股,探讨交易量冲击和收益率冲击下的股价反应不足或过度反应与动量或反转效应之间的关系。论文在BSV模型和HS模型的基础上,对动量和反转效应的形成机制提供一个可能的解释。     

Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000–2001, Revisited

Turkey’s exchange rate based stabilization programme had collapsed within just 11 months of its implementation in the midst of a liquidity crunch in November 2000 caused by a reversal in the capital inflow. The onset of the stabilization programme created ample opportunities for speculative investors to make relatively safe one‐sided bets, and the initial success of the programme in bringing down interest rates implied substantial capital gains over securities obtained in 1999 and early stages of the programme. It was only natural that speculative investors would take the opportunity to realize these gains while the firm exchange rate commitment was still in place. The programme failed to deal with this contingency effectively, assuming that as long as it was implemented faithfully, long‐term investors would be forthcoming to takeover positions speculators would want to unload. That assumption proved disastrously wrong.     

Industry Herding and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies During Market Crises

The degree of industry herding is significantly related to the subsequent performance of winner and loser industries. While the herding effect on losers is not inconsistent with investors’ tendency to herd on negative information, the herding effect on winners reflects institutional demand for overpriced securities. An alternative momentum strategy based on the degree of herding within an industry significantly outperforms the conventional industry momentum strategy over the subsequent 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. The findings suggest that behavioral patterns could be utilized to generate enhanced momentum profits, even during market stress periods when the conventional momentum strategy performs poorly.     

克隆明星基金投资策略构建及其有效性研究

投资者对简单易行的投资策略梦寐以求。本文在股票价格具有惯性和明星基金具有股票选择能力的现实情况下,设计了一种简单易行的克隆明星基金投资策略,并以实际的金融数据对该种投资策略的有效性进行了实证分析。结果表明：该策略能够产生较好的投资收益,投资者利用该策略进行投资是有效的。