房地产税改革对公租房制度的政策支持分析

2007年以来,我国住房保障体系建设取得了突破性进展,公租房则是近期住房保障制度的重要创新。随着房地产税改革步伐的加快,新的房地产税制必将对公租房的建设和运营形成制度约束。本文在厘清公租房属性和制度要点的基础上,分析现行房地产税制对公租房建设和运营的制度约束,对最近上海和重庆的房产税试点改革进行评述,讨论房地产税改革取向并提出支持公租房制度的建议。     

Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?

This paper explores the role of trade integration—or openness—for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale new Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation: a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods; this, in turn, induces domestic producers to lower their prices too. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the US relative to the euro area. Our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities. Counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly. While the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness, we find that monetary policy's control over inflation increases, as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies.     

具有网络效应的产品的价格竞争分析

具有网络效应的产品是指消费者在消费这种产品时所获得的效用会随着购买这种产品的其他消费者数量的增加而不断增加的产品。本文通过建立一个有两个厂商的离散动态决策模型,研究在分散决策的市场经济中生产具有网络效应的产品的厂商的价格决策对产品市场占有率的影响,价格决策影响产品市场占有率的动态演化的过程,以及市场均衡的务件和特征,包括产品不占有市场、占有部分市场以及上有今都市场的价格条件。     

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

State dependence in youth labor market experiences, and the evaluation of policy interventions

We investigate the extent and type of state dependence in labor market outcomes for young low-skilled Australians. Our model allows for three labor force states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, and for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find evidence of occurrence dependence, but no lagged duration dependence. A past employment spell increases the probability of employment in the future, but the length of the spell does not matter. A past spell of unemployment undoes the positive benefits from a spell in employment. Interpretations of these effects and implications for labor market policies are discussed.     

绍兴、吴江农村城市化的情况调研

通过对江苏吴江市和浙江绍兴县两地部分建制镇和部分原农村居民点的实地调研 ,作者认为 ,目前两地农村工业化、城市化处于发展的上升期 :中心镇经济和城市化发展相当快 ;中心镇以下的部分行政村异地或就地实现城市化。在城市化进程中 ,以下问题有待探讨解决 :迁村并点、撤乡并镇的速度与规模 ;城镇建设用地指标及相关政策 ;社区建设改造过程中 ,农民征地拆迁补偿标准和社会保障等。     

Monetary policy and risk taking

We assess the effects of monetary policy on bank risk to verify the existence of a risk-taking channel – monetary expansions inducing banks to assume more risk. We first present VAR evidence confirming that this channel exists and is particularly significant on the bank funding side. Then, to rationalize this evidence we build a macroeconomic model where banks subject to runs endogenously choose their funding structure (deposits vs. capital) and risk level. A monetary expansion increases bank leverage and risk. In turn, higher bank risk in steady state increases asset price volatility and reduces equilibrium output.     

高职院校形势与政策教育课教学若干问题之探索

“形势与政策”课是高职院校思想政治教育理论课的重要组成部分,也是对学生进行形势与政策教育的主渠道、主阵地。其教学效果直接关系到党的舆论宣传工作在高职院校的贯彻落实。文章在对高职院校“形势与政策”课程现状分析的基础上,从管理机构、教学要求、课程建设等三方面对改进和提高高职院校形势与政策教育教学效果进行了尝试和探索。     

省际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献研究

研究目标：考察省际贸易对经济增长的贡献。研究方法：区分结构影响与部门影响的因素分解模型。研究发现：第一,消费对中国经济增长的贡献比重在下降;省际调出因素和出口因素的贡献比重在上升。第二,1987年,省际调出仅在3个省份是经济增长的第一贡献因素;2007年,省际调出则在11个省份成为经济增长的第一贡献因素。第三,从省份视角看,尽管出口对经济增长的贡献比重在上升,但在2007年,省际调出贡献比重仍然是出口贡献比重的3.5倍;从部门视角看,省际调出的贡献比重也依然大于出口的贡献比重。第四,在将因素贡献比重变化的来源区分为结构影响与部门影响之后,不管是消费贡献比重的下降,还是省际调出和出口贡献比重的上升,部门影响均发挥着主导作用。研究创新：将省际贸易引入关于经济增长的因素分解模型。研究价值：对于目前步入“新常态”的中国经济,省际贸易可以成为未来中国经济新的增长点。     

A LITERATURE SURVEY ON PROPOSED AFRICAN MONETARY UNIONS

This study provides a survey of recent advances in the literature on proposed African monetary unions. The survey comprises about 70 empirical papers published during the past 15 years. Four main strands are discussed individually and collectively. They comprise the proposed: (i) West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), (ii) East African Monetary Union (EAMU), (iii) Southern African Monetary Union (SAMU) and (iv) African Monetary Union (AMU). We observe a number of issues with establishing the feasibility and/or desirability of potential monetary unions, inter alia, they are variations in: choice of variables, empirical strategies, sampled countries and considered periodicities. We address this ambiguity by reviewing studies with scenarios that are consistent with Hegelian dialectics and establish selective expansion as the predominant mode of monetary integration. Some proponents make cases for strong pegs and institutions as viable alternatives to currency unions. Using cluster analysis, disaggregating panels into sub-samples and distinguishing shocks from responses in the examination of business cycle synchronisation provide more subtle policy implications. We caution that for inquiries using the same theoretical underpinnings, variables and methods just by modifying the scope/context and periodicity may only contribute to increasing the number of conflicting findings. Authors should place more emphasis on new perspectives and approaches based on caveats of, and lessons from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and CFA zones.