Chefs and suppliers: An exploratory look at supply chain issues in an upscale restaurant alliance

This paper examines some basic issues associated with supply chains in the context of acquiring local ingredients as part of producing a culinary tourism experience. Based on data collected from Executive Chefs at Relais & Châteaux restaurants through surveys and personal interviews, the authors document producer-to-chef relationships, why and how local ingredients are featured in menu listings, and how chefs communicate their use of local ingredients to their guests. The results also describe chefs’ beliefs about the use of local ingredients, as well as potential issues related to the use of suppliers and their perceptions of their guests’ expectations for their meals.     

纵向财政失衡、FDI竞争与医疗卫生服务供给水平——兼论标尺竞争机制下地区间的策略性行为北大核心CSSCI

关于医疗卫生服务供给不足的原因一直是社会各界高度关注的重点话题,现行的财政分权制度常被认为是最主要的原因。本文尝试将表征现行财政分权制度特征的三个要素,即纵向财政失衡、地区FDI竞争和地区间竞争模仿的策略性行为,与医疗卫生服务供给水平纳入同一分析框架,在对其理论机制分析的基础上,利用2007-2018年277个地级及以上城市面板数据,实证考察它们之间的关系特征及机制路径。研究发现,纵向财政失衡与地区FDI竞争对医疗卫生服务供给水平均存在显著的抑制作用,同时,地区FDI竞争对纵向财政失衡的负向抑制作用具有正向调节效应。进一步分析发现,地方政府间的标尺竞争使其在医疗卫生服务供给行为上表现出明显的策略模仿,医疗卫生服务供给水平呈明显的空间溢出效应。异质性分析发现,发达地区医疗卫生服务供给水平受抑制的主因是FDI竞争所致,欠发达地区则主要缘于纵向财政失衡的显著影响。机制分析发现,纵向财政失衡通过作用于财政支出结构与医疗卫生支出效率两种方式实现对医疗卫生服务供给水平的抑制,而FDI竞争则主要是通过扭曲财政支出结构的方式实现其抑制作用。本文的研究丰富了医疗卫生服务供给不足制度性成因探寻的文献,对于如何全面推进新一轮财税体制改革、深化医疗卫生体制改革、优化政绩考核指标等具有借鉴意义。     

农业供应链金融的数字化转型:理论与中国案例

随着农村电商、物联网和数字金融的快速发展,我国农业供应链金融开始向数字化转型,本文对数字化农业供应链金融模式进行理论和案例分析。研究发现,相比于传统农业供应链金融,数字化农业供应链金融借助于电商平台、物联网、大数据和云计算等数字应用和技术,能够降低金融服务过程中的交易成本,构建农村数字化信用评价体系,优化风险控制策略,最终提高金融供给效率。目前数字化农业供应链金融已形成互联网企业驱动和数字化农业企业驱动两种模式,但是仍面临资金成本高、数字足迹缺乏和信息孤岛等问题,限制其作用的发挥。未来应加快对传统农业的数字化改造,推动农村电商的发展,支持和规范涉农互联网金融机构的发展,最终完善数字化农业供应链金融模式,为发展中国家的农业供应链金融贡献创新模式。     

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

我国资产价格波动与货币政策关系研究

随着金融自由化的逐步推进,资本市场存量日益增大.这既体现了金融深化程度的提高,又意味着货币供应与国民经济主要指标之间稳定性的弱化.资产价格对货币政策的制订和执行会产生深刻的影响.其中股价、房价等资产价格在货币政策传导机制中扮演的角色越来越重要.本文从实证角度出发,通过构建VAR模型检验我国资产价格对货币政策的反应以及资产价格对货币政策目标的影响,发现资产价格、货币政策及货币政策目标间存在长期协整关系,资产价格对产出有正向冲击作用,股市显著影响通货膨胀,但房地产市场对通货膨胀推动作用不明显,资产价格受货币政策的冲击影响显著,其中股市对货币政策冲击的反应明显大于房地产市场.     

财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

单位运输成本变化的供应链模型分析

在需求信息不确定情况下，由一个供应商和一个经销商构成两级供应链系统，考虑谊系统在商品边际运输费用随订货量增加而递减的情况，分析经销商采集需求不确定信息的必要备件，指出供销双方共享需求不确定信息的条件，以厦供应链系统中多个经销商联合订货的优势。     

美国住房租赁市场运行机制探讨及借鉴

美国拥有发达的私人住房租赁市场和公共住房租赁市场,其关于住房租赁市场的法律制度、税收体系、房租补贴政策和完善的政府监管体制等方面均值得我国借鉴。研究表明,支撑美国住房租赁市场的因素主要有供给因素、需求因素和政府对租赁市场的有效管理和规范。尽管在住房消费文化和土地制度环境等方面我国住房市场与美国住房市场差异显著,但美国发展与规范住房租赁市场的经验对培育和发展我国住房租赁市场仍然具有重要的政策借鉴价值。     

Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been approximately 1% point higher on average. Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independent of that set in Australia, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.     

中国货币政策传导有效性之实证分析

文章运用时间序列分析的方法,研究在中国人民银行间接调控货币政策的新时期,在中国资本市场规范成长的新阶段,中国货币政策传导到中国资本市场的渠道的有效性。实证结果表明:中国货币政策能够通过利率渠道、通货膨胀率渠道和货币供应量渠道有效地传导到中国资本市场。