Are bygones not bygones? Modeling price-level targeting with an escape clause and lessons from the gold standard

Like the gold standard, price-level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I and resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity) is reviewed. It suggests that, in practice, PT might operate with an escape clause that would allow rebasing of the price target in the face of large shocks. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we show that such an escape clause can produce multiple equilibria. For some parameterizations, there is a low credibility equilibrium (with high expectation of a reset) associated with high output volatility and frequent resets. These problems reduce, or reverse, the expectational advantage PT has over inflation targeting.     

浅析美联储“量化宽松”的货币政策

从2008年3月27日至2010年3月18日,美联储面对汹涌而来的金融危机打开印钞机,资产总额大幅上升,基于美联储所采取的种种举动,总结出美联储量化宽松的货币政策的特点,并且分析它所产生的影响。     

中哈原油管道两国计量输差数学模型分析

用流体的连续性方程并结合质量守恒定律对中哈管道阿塔苏站-阿拉山口站的参数进行分析后建立了计量输差的数学模型关系,通过数据验证了该模型。结果说明两国之间毛重计量输差的主要影响因子是输送过程中两站间管道中油品密度变化率,从而为解决两国间流量计计量数据争议提供了重要参考。     

Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a naïve alternative. We find that the FOMC output forecasts were better than the naïve model and at least as good as those of the private sector and the Fed staff. The FOMC inflation forecasts were more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the naïve model; for the period ending in 1996, however, they were not as accurate as Fed staff inflation forecasts.     

中国农业劳动生产率增长的特点与路径分析

在考察农业生产效率的众多指标中,农业劳动生产率是重要而实用的指标。农业劳动生产率的提高是中国传统农业向现代农业转变的重要标志。本文采取回归分析的方法,运用1952～2003年的有关数据,探讨了中国农业劳动生产率增长的阶段与特点,描述了中国农业劳动生产率增长的资本投入机制、劳动力投入机制、生产率积累机制,将农业劳动生产率的增长方式划分为六种类型,揭示了中国农业劳动生产率增长路径。     

Monetary equilibria over an infinite horizon

Summary. Money provides liquidity services through a cash-in-advance constraint. The exchange of commodities and assets extends over an infinite horizon under uncertainty and a sequentially complete asset market. Monetary policy sets the path of rates of interest and accommodates the demand for balances through open market operations or loans. A public authority, which, most pertinently, inherits a strictly positive public debt, raises revenue from taxes and seignorage, and it distributes possible budget surpluses to individuals through transfers. Competitive equilibria exist, under mild solvency conditions. But, for a fixed path of rates of interest, there is a non-trivial multiplicity of equilibrium paths of prices of commodities. Determinacy requires that, subject to no-arbitrage and in addition to rates of interest, the prices of state-contingent revenues be somehow determined.Received: 16 April 2003, Revised: 16 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D50, E40, E50.We are grateful to Pietro Reichlin, Rabah Amir, Tomoyuki Nakajima, Armando Dominioni and Leo Ferraris for helpful discussions and their reading of preliminary drafts. The usual disclaimer applies. An earlier version was circulated as [4].     

后金融危机的货币供给过剩及其效应

本文针对我国货币政策的操作特征,使用阈值协整方法扩展现有的货币需求模型,度量后金融危机时期的货币供给过剩及其对通胀与经济增长的非线性调节效应,并进而设定广义脉冲响应函数揭示货币供给过剩对通胀与经济增长的冲击效应。主要结论为:2009年第三季度以后,我国货币供给过剩且过剩幅度快速增加,其中名义M1过剩12.56%,名义M2过剩11.31%。2009Q3—2010Q3我国处于货币供给过剩机制下,在该机制下,央行谨慎地实施从紧货币政策,从紧货币政策对通胀和经济增长的调节效应相对较强。货币供给过剩对通胀和经济增长的冲击在前2年为正值,在随后近3年为负值。这说明我国现阶段适度宽松货币政策的退出必须谨慎,退出速度不宜过快。     

芪柏塌渍治疗小儿静脉炎的疗效及对TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路的影响

目的观察芪柏塌渍对静脉炎的疗效,同时探讨其对TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路上标志蛋白表达的影响。方法选取2018年1月至2019年6月大连市中心医院收治的40例静脉炎患儿作为研究对象,按随机数字表法分为常规组和试验组,各20例,另取20例健康儿童为对照组。对照组患儿取50%硫酸镁溶液浸湿的无菌纱布敷于发生静脉炎处,面积以超过静脉炎范围1~2 cm为宜,并用保鲜膜包裹于纱布外,每2小时换药1次,3 d为一个治疗周期。试验组用无菌棉签蘸取适量芪柏塌渍膏涂于发生静脉炎处,面积以大于静脉炎范围1~2 cm为宜,厚度0.2~0.5 cm,予以无菌纱布覆盖,最后用胶布固定,每4~6小时换药1次,3 d为一个治疗周期。于治疗前及治疗2个周期时,采用蛋白免疫印迹法检测外周血中TLR-4和核因子-κB水平变化,酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)检测患儿血清肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)、白细胞介素-11(IL-11)、白细胞介素-4(IL-4)、白细胞介素-33(IL-33)蛋白表达。结果治疗后两组患儿数字评分法(NRS)评分、红肿面积有所改善,且试验组改善程度优于常规组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);静脉炎患儿血清TLR-4、核因子-κB、TNF-α、IL-11、IL-4、IL-33水平明显高于健康对照组(P<0.05);治疗后,常规组和试验组患儿TLR-4、核因子-κB、TNF-α、IL-11、IL-4、IL-33水平明显下降(P<0.05),且试验组上述指标明显低于常规组(P<0.05)。结论静脉炎患儿存在TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路表达紊乱,芪柏塌渍可明显调节TLR-4/核因子-κB信号通路上标志性蛋白的表达,该效应可能是芪柏塌渍从机体炎症方面改善静脉炎患儿的作用机制之一。     

汇率变动、可耗竭资源和经济增长

本文基于贸易的视角,从理论和实证两方面分析了汇率变动、可耗竭资源与经济发展之间的关系.得出贸易传导机制下的"资源诅咒"在我国虽然存在不明显,这种局面到底能持续多久,在一定程度上依赖于我国资源的承受力和可持续性的结论.最后给出了从长远来看,人民币适度升值,可以化解"资源诅咒"的陷阱的建议.     

Determinacy with nominal assets and outside money

Summary. We build a finite horizon model with inside and outside money, in which interest rates, price levels and commodity allocations are determinate, even though asset markets are incomplete and asset deliveries are purely nominal.Received: 2 July 2003, Revised: 1 December 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D50, E40, E50, E58.Correspondence to: J. Geanakoplos