2011-2012年中国宏观经济分析与预测——复苏放缓、风险上扬与结构刚性冲击下的中国宏观经济

本文通过全面总结2011年中国宏观经济的3大表现,利用中国人民大学宏观经济预测模型,指出2012年中国将面临外部经济放缓、内部房地产市场深度调整、泡沫经济逆转以及金融风险加剧的冲击,但在结构刚性的约束下,政府将全面转变政策定位,从而保证中国经济在加速回落中实现反弹,全年经济增长呈现“前低后缓”的模式.     

How broad-based is broad-based black economic empowerment?

Common perceptions about broad-based black economic empowerment (BBBEE) have been that it is nothing more than a tool for the already affluent to access further wealth and has limited potential to address the economic exclusion of the most marginalised. An analysis was conducted of data on black economic empowerment (BEE) deals between 2004 and 2009. The findings demonstrate that although the elite continue to benefit from deals, broad-based beneficiaries, particularly employees and women, are also beginning to benefit to some extent. This suggests that empowerment policies have some potential to promote private sector involvement in addressing the state's social transformation agenda. However, a closer analysis of the BEE transactions shows that the BEE landscape is far more complex and nuanced than commonly thought. Further research is necessary to understand the real impacts of BEE on the ground.     

Perfectly competitive bilateral exchange without discounting

In a random-matching economy of traders who maximize cumulative consumption (overtaking criterion), the stationary, Markov, Bayesian-perfect equilibrium is studied. At such equilibrium, two results hold: (1) perfect substitutability between current and future consumption implies a no-surplus condition; and (2) by the no-surplus condition, there is a nominal price at which all trades must occur. These results strengthen the seminal results of Ostroy (1973) regarding monetary bilateral exchange in two ways: the incentive compatibility of the equilibrium trading pattern is established and a less roundabout trading pattern enhances welfare by enabling consumption to occur more frequently.     

加快广西经济增长的税收对策探讨

在概括广西经济发展和税收发展的基础上,从宏观税负、税收优惠政策、税收协调政策以及区别对待企业等方面剖析当前税收政策在促进广西经济增长中存在的不足,进而从宏观税负、重点支持对象、关税、税收优惠政策、税收协调措施和企业待遇等角度提出解决问题的对策。     

Preventing drowning through design – the contribution of human factors

A number of routes can be followed towards the prevention of drowning, such as educating on water safety, installing barriers between non-intended users and water, mitigating the consequences of submersion incidents, and design. The human factor approach to safety is that design should always be the primary route. Human factors can be applied to the design of personal protective equipment such as buoyancy aids, barriers such as pool fencing, ancillary equipment such as swimming pool covers through to information and organisational factors such as safety signs and swimming campaigns. Design should consider all potential drowning scenarios and accommodate the characteristics of those at risk. A framework is presented with examples on how human factor principles can be applied to the design of potential drowning sites and products, with suggestions for methods and techniques that can be used in the key stages of predicting potential hazards and assessing risk.     

Towards an integrated framework for analysing sustainable innovation policy

An integrated framework for the analysis of sustainable innovation policy was developed, based on a combination of the transition management (TM) framework, the strategic niche management approach, and policy recommendations, resulting from technological innovation system (TIS) studies. In the framework, the multi-level view from TM has been integrated with the functions approach from the TIS literature. The integrated policy framework shows that specific policy goals and measures can be found at the specific points of intervention related to (the interfaces between) landscape, regime, TIS and niches. The integrated framework suggests that stimulation of a TIS only makes sense when this action is well aligned with landscape and regime developments. The framework should be used in empirical studies for further testing and refinement.     

Will urban farming survive the growth of African cities: A case-study in Kampala (Uganda)?

Despite the fact that urban farming is widespread in many African cities there is not yet a clearly defined view on how to deal with these activities in urban planning and management. On the basis of field interviews in the rapidly expanding metropolitan area of Kampala (Uganda) three different urban farming types were identified: subsistence farming, garden farming and commercial farming. These three urban farming types have their own spatial organisation logic and each interact in a specific way with urban expansion. In this paper the possible outcome of three alternative urban management strategies for Kampala (urban sprawl, urban infilling and a combination of both) were translated into spatially explicit land use scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030. This allowed to evaluate the spatial impact of each scenario on the future viability of the different urban farming practices. Urban sprawl fragments large open spaces thereby reducing the space for subsistence farming with 80% by 2030. Urban infilling, on the other hand, decreases the opportunities for small to medium scale garden and commercial farming by a possible reduction of 62% of the available farming land by 2030. The results of the analysis are useful for urban planners as they give insight in the potential future effects of proposed planning strategies on urban farming.     

Seasonal Trading and Lifestyle Motivation

ABSTRACT

This article explores relationships between tourism sea-sonality and the lifestyle motivations of small tourism businesses, fundamentally a supply-side perspective of seasonality. Seasonal trading decisions are subject to a number of influences, not all of which are in the operator's control. Drawing from exploratory research undertaken in Scotland, the article argues that for some operators, especially located in rural and peripheral destination areas, lifestyle enterprise can confer a range of benefits, some of which are afforded by operating the business on a seasonal basis. Moreover, seasonal trading was seen to assume a number of distinct roles, reflecting various characteristics of lifestyle operators. Accordingly, public policies that seek to promote seasonal extension based on the premise of local economic development or destination objectives are not necessarily destined to work. This is particularly pertinent if such policies do not recognise the wider supply-side dynamics of seasonal trading and fail to engage with the lifestyle aspirations of the operators themselves.     

中国改革开放三十年的四点反思

纪念改革开放三十年,我们最需要做的是反思。值得反思的地方很多,本文试从改革的过程与成就、改革的形势与问题、改革的任务与重点及深化改革的动力与阻力来自何方等方面进行初步的反思。     

Customer Satisfaction in Retail Banking

Professional services firms (PSFs) engaged in international operations present a unique challenge for governments. They directly and indirectly affect governmental policies and the agencies that enforce these policies through policy development, problem solving, and implementation. Yet, governments that seek to advance rational, forward thinking public policy have little, if any, regulatory control over the input and influence of these professional experts. International professional service firms face an increasingly competitive marketplace and complex challenges that demand skill sets that are markedly different from those characteristically required of consumer service companies. This study identifies the qualities of the best performing PSFs that engage clients worldwide. Implications are discussed for governments to ensure the greater public good.