Range-based multivariate volatility model with double smooth transition in conditional correlation

This paper proposes a multivariate model named Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation Conditional Autoregressive Range (DSTCC-CARR for short). Determined by two transition variables, the correlations smoothly transit from one state to another. Together with the DSTCC-GARCH model, the model is employed to investigate the interdependence between Hong Kong's and international stock markets. It is proved by the empirical analysis that the DSTCC-CARR model is more credible and efficient than the DSTCC-GARCH model. Linkages among Hong Kong's and other world's markets captured by these two models are testified to be consistent with history, and have meaningful interpretations.     

Categorization of tourist attractions and the modeling of tourist cities: based on the co-plot method of multivariate analysis

This paper examines the relation between the trip characteristics of tourists and the attractions that they visit. This analysis was made possible by means of a new method of multivariate analysis—co-plot—that enables the simultaneous analysis of observations and variables and the graphic presentation of the interrelations among them. Jerusalem was seen as an “ideal” city for the demonstration of the co-plot method of data analysis due to the heterogeneity of its tourism. The research was conducted between September 1998 and March 1999. The results of the statistical analysis show that Jerusalem's tourist attractions can be categorized into four distinct groups and that there is a tendency of spatial concentration among sights belonging to the same group. Based on these results, a spatial model of tourism consumption in large cities was developed.     

矿物微粉对水泥基混合料抗压强度的影响

为了了解矿物微粉对混凝土性能的影响,利用可压缩堆积模型(CPM)计算了不同体系胶凝材料的堆积密实度,研究了矿物微粉级配及其相对掺量对低水胶比水泥基混合料抗压强度的影响。结果表明,胶凝材料的堆积密实度与水泥基混合料的抗压强度有很强的对应关系;当堆积密实度相差不大而化学效应相差较大时,化学效应越大,抗压强度越大。     

The response of term rates to monetary policy uncertainty

This paper shows that greater uncertainty about monetary policy can lead to a decline in nominal interest rates. In the context of a limited participation model, monetary policy uncertainty is modeled as a mean preserving spread in the distribution for the money growth process. This increase in uncertainty lowers the yield on short-term maturity bonds because the household sector responds by increasing liquidity in the banking sector. Long-term maturity bonds also have lower yields but this decrease is a result of the effect that greater uncertainty has on the nominal intertemporal rate of substitution—which is a convex function of money growth. We examine the nature of these relations empirically by introducing the GARCH-SVAR model—a multivariate generalization of the GARCH-M model. The predictions of the model are broadly supported by the data: higher uncertainty in the federal funds rate can lower the yields of the three- and six-month treasury bill rates.     

Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework

Although the link between trade and growth has long been discussed, systematic empirical investigation of the relationship has been undertaken only relatively recently. A number of time-series studies exist for individual countries in the area of export-led growth, but for Bangladesh there has been little work in this area. This study seeks to bridge an important gap in the literature, and is perhaps the first to use Johansen's multivariate framework taking the terms of trade as an additional variable for Bangladesh. The findings suggest that the direction of both long and short-term causality is from income to exports. This result is hardly surprising as, for most of the period covered, Bangladesh has followed an inward-looking strategy of development that discriminated against exports.     

Firm Density and Industry R & D Intensity: Theory and Evidence

By deriving a formal model of industry R & D that identifies factors influencing industry R & D intensity, this paper first suggests firm density, defined as the inverse of average firm sales or simply the number of firms divided by industry sales, as a measure of market structure that is appropriate in explaining industry R & D intensity. The model shows that the cost structure of R & D, consumer preference over quality and price, the appropriability of R & D, firm density, and the average level of firm R & D intensity jointly determine industry R & D intensity. In particular, firm density has a positive relationship with industry R & D intensity, implying that firms in higher firm-density industries feel fiercer competitive pressure and thus engage more intensively in R & D. An empirical analysis of panel data on industry R & D activities of Korean manufacturing industries during the period 1991–1996 provides supportive evidence for the predictions of the model including the positive relationship between firm density and industry R & D intensity. The theoretical model and the empirical results are also consistent with the recent survey of U.S. corporate R & D activities by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Science Foundation (1999).     

中国低密度住宅设计的工业化方向

针对中国城市低密度住宅现状,作者分析了其郊区化、大规模及平民化特征,提出“有人情味”的工业化将是低密度住宅在中国的发展方向。     

Spatial welfare economics versus ecological footprint: modeling agglomeration,externalities and trade

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy, that is, in line with the ‘new economic geography.’ By generating a number of numerical ‘counter-examples,’ it is shown that the footprint method is inconsistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare. Unless environmental externalities are such a large problem that they overwhelm all other components of economic well-being, a ‘spatial welfare economic’ approach delivers totally different rankings of alternative land use configurations than the ecological footprint.      

Minimax character of the two-sample χ2-test

Abstract  We consider the problem of testing equality of the mean vectors of two multivariate normal populations when covariates are present and the covariance matrix is known. As an application of the H unt -S tein theorem it is shown that the χ²-^-test of level a maximizes, among all level a tests, the minimum power on each of the contours where the χ²-^-test has constant power. A corollary is that the χ²-^-test is most stringent level a .     

Saving under uncertainty: A bivariate non-expected utility approach

We adopt the multivariate non-expected utility approach proposed by Yaari [1986] to provide a characterization of the comparative statics effects of greater risk aversion and of mean-preserving increases in risk on saving and borrowing in the presence of income and interest rate risk.We show that in Yaari's model, it is possible to extend the applicability of the Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom and Mirman [1974] (DSKM) single-crossing property to establish a relationship between greater risk aversion and saving (or borrowing) on the basis of the individual's ordinal preferences as long as the two risks are independent. We also demonstrate that the comparative statics effects of a joint mean-preserving increase in random income and interest rate on saving and borrowing can be determined by an extension of the DSKM single-crossing property.