Analysis of bilateral air passenger flows: A non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline approach

Gravity models have long served as a framework for analyzing bilateral flows, trade and many other activities. To estimate a gravity model, (parametric) linear regression techniques have been commonly employed to develop the relationship between passenger flows and factors that can significantly influence these flows. This study explores the application of an alternative method, the non-parametric multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique, to identify the determinants for air passenger flows between pairs of countries. The data of 2006 and 2007 air passenger flows between pairs of countries in the APEC region were collected to develop the MARS models. Results indicate that distance between the countries, annual import value, national per capita income, unemployment rate and consumer price index of the origin country, as well as GDP, annual import value, and consumer price index of the destination country are significant determinants for bilateral air passenger flows.     

The impact of local food specialities on the decision to (re)visit a tourist destination: Market-expanding or business-stealing?

This paper studies how local food specialities can affect the attractiveness of tourist destinations, distinguishing between market-expanding and business-stealing effects. We surveyed 1100 Italians in their home about their intention to visit or revisit three popular mountain resorts in Northern Italy (Valtellina, Valle d’Aosta, Trentino), and about their experience, knowledge, and appreciation of five well-known local food products of these places (Pizzoccheri pasta, Bresaola dried beef, Fontina cheese, Melinda apples, Speck smoked ham). We find that product experience positively affects the likelihood of (re)visiting both a product's place of origin and the other mountain destinations (market-expanding effect). Conversely, the correct identification of the product's place of origin may reduce the intention to (re)visit the other destinations (business-stealing effect). Finally, strong appreciation for a local food speciality has a positive effect only on the intention to (re)visit the place of origin.     

An integrated model of tourists’ time use and expenditure behaviour with self-selection based on a fully nested Archimedean copula function

This study presents an integrated model of tourists’ time use, expenditure by explicitly incorporating the influence of destination visit behaviour based on the concept of self-selection. Inter-destination interactions (between time-use decisions, between expenditure decisions, and between decisions on both time use and expenditure) are incorporated by using a multilinear utility function. The study uses a Type-II Tobit model with a Frank-type fully nested Archimedean copula to deal with issues caused by correlation between these variables. The Archimedean copula is used to combine marginal distributions to obtain a joint distribution of error terms of utility functions with the help of dependency parameters. The effectiveness of the model is confirmed empirically by using data collected in the Tottori Prefecture of Japan in 2007. Dependence structures across destinations, inter-destination interactions and the relative importance of each destination in decisions are examined.     

基于多元随机波动模型方法的股指期货与现货关系研究——以亚洲五地金融市场为例

本文以多元随机波动模型检视亚洲五个主要金融市场股指期货与现货的报酬关系与波动溢出效应。实证发现,五地金融市场股指期货与现货之间皆存在双向的波动溢出效应。股指现货动态相关系数和波动持续系数均高,显示现货市场具有聚类的现象。此外,本研究进一步探讨股指期货与现货的联动和共同波动因子的关系,实证发现,股指期货与现货的波动关系是同时受到共同信息发布的影响。     

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on major industries in Japan: A dynamic conditional correlation approach

This study assesses the impact of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases on the Japanese stock market. As of October 30, 2020, the cumulative number of cases in Japan has reached over one hundred thousand. COVID-19 has significantly affected both the lifestyle and the economy in Japan. First, this study develops composite stock indices by industry sector and prefecture, taking into consideration the effects of the increase in infections on industries and firms in the core prefectures. Second, this study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations between the composite stock index returns and the increment in COVID-19 cases using dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Finally, it can contribute to financial research in terms of coexistence of regional business economies with COVID-19.     

Systemic Risks Spillovers and Interdependence among Stock Markets: International Evidence with Covar‐Copulas

Empirical studies have provided ample evidence on the potential benefits of international diversification with portfolios that consist of both domestic and foreign assets. This coupled with sudden and periodic crashes in global and developed equity markets have stimulated the interest of investors to diversify across markets that have the potential to provide decorrelation with global markets during turbulent periods. At the same time, international diversification may intensify cross‐border listing of stocks with its antecedent implication of shocks transmission. The above have engendered renewed interest among researchers to explore the dependence levels and spillover effects of shocks among emerging and developed equity markets. This paper examines tail dependence structure and (extreme) systemic risks spillover effects among international equity markets using advanced econometric techniques that underpin the modelling of asset returns. We find evidence of low positive significant dependencies between all African markets and their developed counterparts, except for Egypt. Although no evidence of spillover effects to the markets in Africa was found, both unidirectional and bi‐directional causality between some African and developed equity markets is found, albeit with differences. We are unable to ascribe the dynamics in the causality structure to level of market integration. It is inferred that the degree of individual local markets interdependence with developed counterparts may reflect the relative size, liquidity and degree of foreign investors' participation.     

A multivariate test of the covariance-co-skewness restriction for the three moment CAPM

This paper re-examines the importance of co-skewness in asset pricing using the multivariate testing procedure proposed by Gibbons (1982). This new approach allows for the testing of a share restriction derived from the Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) model which has been ignored in previous empirical studies. The results indicate that co-skewness is statistically significant in pricing risky assets and that the covariance risk is much more important in explaining the risk-return relationship than the co-skewness risk. However, the results also indicate that the Kraus and Litzenberger model does not adequately describe expected returns.     

Multivariate distributions characterized by a relationship between mean residual life and hazard rate

In this paper, we characterize some multivariate distributions based on a relationship between the multivariate hazard rate, as defined by Johnson and Kotz (1975) and Marshall (1975), and the multivariate mean residual life as defined by Arnold and Zahedi (1988). The results are extensions of the results obtained earlier by Roy (1989, 1990) and Ma (1996, 1997). Received July 1997     

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond's maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues.