A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.     

Political competition,tax salience and accountability. Theory and evidence from Italy

This paper argues that electoral competition may hinder rather than foster political accountability, especially when elected officers can choose among a number of tax instruments. We develop a political agency model showing that politicians in more competitive jurisdictions use less salient tax instruments more intensely. Defining salience as visibility or, analogously, as voters' awareness of the costs associated with specific government revenue sources, we argue that voters are less likely to hold politicians to account for the associated tax burden of a less salient instrument. This in turn implies that strategic politicians will more heavily rely on less salient revenue sources when electoral competition is stronger. Using data on Italian municipal elections and taxes over a 10-year period, we determine the degree of salience of various tax instruments, including property taxes (high salience) and government fees for official documents (low salience). We then show that mayors facing stronger competition for re-election use less salient tax instruments more intensely.     

Railways and the Exploitation of Victoria's Forests, 1880s–1920s

Railways made a large contribution to the expansion of Victoria's economy, and in the process enabled and drove environmental change. This article focuses on one industry, forestry. It first examines railway demand for timber in construction and maintenance, particularly for sleepers. This demand caused tensions – a bitter dispute in the 1890s between the Railways Department and the Conservator of Forests, George Perrin, over timber cut on state land led to uneasy co-existence after the turn of the century. Railways not only required timber but also carried commercial quantities in bulk, providing forest industries with access to profitable markets – in particular firewood, the significance of which has been underappreciated previously. Forest products contributed substantially to railway revenue, representing a more stable source of income than other major categories of freight such as wheat, wool, and coal.     

Efectividad del proyecto de convergencia contable mexicano emprendido a partir de 2005: evidencia empírica (1997-2010)

The purpose of our study is to know whether the efforts carried out by the Mexican Council for Financial Information managed to reduce the differences in the calculation of the Mexican accounting reports and those calculated under American principles (US GAAP) in the period 1997-2010. To achieve the objectives set out, we analyzed 230 20-F reports that correspond to 27 Mexican companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange. The results obtained in the implementation of the linear regression models show the existence of certain factors that explain the degree of comparability of fundamental accounting variables obtained under Mexican GAAP and US GAAP.     

An excellent approximation for the m out of n day provision

The m out of n day provision (MooN) of convertible bonds is difficult to handle. To approximating the MooN better, this paper proposes an approach named the conditional range probability (CRP). CRP is the simulated probability of the MooN being reached within a price range at a future time, conditional on today’s price of the underlying, and can be incorporated into any conventional derivatives pricing method. For a purposely designed exotic call option with a 20 out of 30 day provision, CRP under finite difference is found to outperform significantly several existing approaches and produce a mean pricing error of 1% over a wide range of initial underlying prices for the exotic call. The result implies that finite difference utilizing CRP will yield excellent approximating prices for convertible bonds.     

The effects of mega-events on perceived corruption

In recent decades, the media have covered many cases of corruption related to the celebration of mega-events around the globe. In most of these cases, politicians and other high officials are involved. This paper analyses the effect of hosting mega-events on the level of perceived corruption in 34 OECD countries, during 1996–2017. Summer and Winter Olympic Games, FIFA World Cups, and Universal Expositions are considered. Results show that, when we take the year of the celebration of the event as the turning point, there is no robust evidence in favour of a positive impact on perceived corruption. However, when we take the election date of the host country as the threshold, the magnitude of the effect is lasting, reaching its maximum value 1–2 years before the celebration itself, and increasing the perceived level of corruption by about 4%.     

Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the county-level supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was large and particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. Without it McCain would have received half the votes needed in nine crucial swing states to reverse the outcome of the election. We extend our analysis to the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2012 and find that voters only react to contractions, not expansions, of credit, and reactions are similar for Democratic and Republican incumbent parties.     

Early labor market outcomes of university graduates: Does time to degree matter?

Using university administrative and survey data drawn from the AlmaLaurea Consortium, we analyze the effect of time to degree on the early labor market performance of Italian graduates. The empirical strategy allows identifying separately the impact of elapsed time to degree on the transition from university to work and on earnings from other determinants specific to the academic path completed. Findings suggest that delayed graduation reduces the employment probability (0.8% points for each year of delay), and this effect is still persistent five years after graduation. Once employed, graduates not completing their degree within the minimum period are also penalized in their net monthly earnings, even five years after graduation. The most penalized groups are women and graduates in non-scientific fields.     

Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience*

This paper examines contrasting experiences of the United Kingdom in addressing high public debt to GDP ratios following major wars. A clear message is that interest rate / growth rate differentials were more important than primary budget surpluses for the different outcomes. The debt to GDP ratio fell very rapidly under financial repression following the Second World War but remained stubbornly high despite large budget surpluses with price deflation after the First World War. Implications for policymakers today are that averting price deflation is a high priority and that supply‐side policies that raise growth could play an important part in debt reduction.     

流行病应急响应的国际合作——联合国领导下的禽流感防疫机制透析

随着跨国公共卫生安全在全球治理中分量日益加重,流行病应急响应（Epidemic preparedness and response）的国际合作逐步被提上了全球日程。2005年,人感染高致病性禽流感在全球范围内的大规模传播,国际社会尤其是联合国领导下的相关组织如何构建防疫机制来应对这一形势成为焦点。经过多年的努力,联合国领导下的禽流感防疫机制日臻完善,该机制主要包括核心领导机构、法理基础、重要应急措施以及相关国际行为体参与4个方面。同时,该机制的有效性与局限性并存,值得引起人们的注意。