A risk index to model uncertain portfolio investment with options

This paper models the portfolio investment performance with options by using a risk index, which is defined as the average loss below the risk-free interest rate. Using a risk-free interest rate as the uniform reference rate for all portfolios, the risk index offers an easier-to-compare loss value than the value-at-risk return, where portfolio specific references are used to calculate the average losses. Besides, uncertainty theory is used in the paper to derive the portfolio decision when stock prices are subject to experts' estimations. By analytical computation and empirical analysis, we find that portfolios considering options generate better return than the ones without options. The empirical analysis reveals that the options can effectively hedge the risk, and the call option with a higher exercise price offers higher return per unit of option premium. Furthermore, our proposed model produces higher expected return in most cases than the model where the risk is measured by the chance of the total return failing to reach the threshold level of return.     

THE RISK PREFERENCES OF ENTREPRENEURS IN INDONESIA

Entrepreneurship is known to be important for innovation and economic growth, but relatively little attention has been paid to entrepreneurs in developing countries. We examined an important aspect of entrepreneurship: risk‐taking. We analysed the Indonesian Family Life Survey and compared risk preferences between entrepreneurs and non‐entrepreneurs. We found that risk tolerant workers were more likely to be entrepreneurs than risk averse workers by about 5 percentage points, or about 20 percent of the proportion of entrepreneurs in the labour force. The results imply that not all entrepreneurs in Indonesia are pushed into the sector; some actively take risks and seek innovations.     

A View of the Occupational Structure in Imperial and Republican China (1640–1952)

Despite being considered a prime indicator of economic change, the occupational structure does not figure prominently in the debate regarding the economic development of early modern China. One reason is the virtual absence of occupational data before the start of the twentieth century. In this paper, we make a first attempt to sketch the occupational structure between ca. 1640 and 1952 using a variety of unique and rather fragmented occupational sources. We find that the share of persons working in agriculture remained stable until the mid-nineteenth century, with the share in industry showing some growth thereafter.     

Clash of civilizations demystified

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the clash-of-civilizations view on the nature of interstate conflicts in the post-Cold War era. First, we show that countries belonging to different civilizations have a higher probability of interstate conflict before and after the Cold War period, but not during the Cold War. Second, we explain the differential impact of civilizations on conflict over time by providing evidence that civilizational differences were suppressed during the Cold War by ideology and super-power camps. Third, we provide evidence that the component of civilizations that matters the most for conflict in the post-Cold War period is language, and not religion. Fourth, we analyze the long-term cultural, geographical and historical determinants of civilizational differences, and show that language has the largest explanatory power.     

Sterling's Persistence as a Reserve Currency: Australia and Reserves Pooling, 1950–68

Financial historians have noted sterling's persistence as a reserve currency after the Second World War. Yet they regard Australia, the leading ‘sterling area’ country, as an early diversifier, substituting other assets for sterling, and the sterling area as an irrelevance by the 1960s. This is an archive-based account of Australia's reserve management in 1950–68, emphasising the persistence of reserves pooling. Acquisition of non-sterling assets in 1951–61 was limited to gold production and undermined by Australia's balance-of-payments volatility. Diversification only began in 1962, largely through the International Monetary Fund ‘gold tranche’. Diversification was gradual, hidden, and constrained by sterling area membership.     

Flood Insurance and Risk Reduction: Market Penetration,Coverage, and Mitigation in Coastal North Carolina

This article provides an overview of flood risk management in the United States, focusing on the National Flood Insurance Program and the Community Ratings System (CRS), which is designed to promote flood hazard mitigation. We review the empirical literature that examines market penetration and demand for flood insurance, as well as factors that influence community participation in CRS. Combining data from separate (but similar) surveys conducted in Dare County, North Carolina in 1998 and 2008, we examine trends in flood insurance holdings and explore the extensive (binary participation) and intensive (coverage level) margins using regression analysis. We explore trends in CRS mitigation activities in Dare County and discuss potential difficulties in analyzing these data. Finally, we highlight avenues for future research.     

Are China's Exports Crowding Out or Being Crowded Out? Evidence from Japan's Imports

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowded out those from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9‐digit product‐level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding‐out and crowded‐out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding‐out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China's own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China's export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded‐out effect could achieve win–win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value‐added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.     

Were Nineteenth‐Century Industrial Workers Permanent Income Savers?

Theories of household saving posit that households add to or draw down wealth to equalize the discounted present value of consumption over time. This article examines the extent to which 19th century urban American industrial workers saved and dissaved to smooth consumption in response to unanticipated, plausibly exogenous, shocks to income. Information on the expected and unexpected number of days unemployed is used to construct estimates of transitory income. The data are then used to estimate the marginal propensity to save from transitory income. The results are broadly consistent with Friedman's ( 1957 ) permanent income hypothesis in that the marginal propensity to consume from transitory income is about twice that of nontransitory income.     

Mo对Ti（C，N）基金属陶瓷组织性能的影响

研究了Mo含量对Ti（C,N）基金属陶瓷组织性能的影响。试样用常规粉末冶金方法制备,在材料中加入4～12wt％的Mo,分别于1430℃、1440℃、1450℃及1460℃真空烧结。测试了试样的抗弯强度及硬度,用扫描电镜观察其显微组织并做能谱分析,确定元素的相对含量。结果显示,当Mo含量为8wt％、烧结温度为1450℃时材料的综合性能最好。