中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

采用协整与方差分解的方法时中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现,通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反,但都具有回归自然水平趋势,货币供应时通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应,长期内货币非中性。而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面。应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率：另一方面,偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率,因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策,以避免金融风险。     

我国物价上涨过快的比较分析及对策研究

2010年以来，我国物价水平不断攀升，国家为应对物价过快上涨，采取了一系列措施，但从效果来看并不理想。我国在1993年～1995年期间也发生了比较严重的通货膨胀，比较分析这两次通货膨胀的特点，为我国经济运行做出正确的判断和分析，从而采取有效的应对措施。     

Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?

This article empirically analyzes the domestic and external inflation determinants for eight non-eurozone new EU member states (NMS), using a structural vector autoregression model. Results indicate that foreign shocks are a major factor in explaining inflation dynamics in the medium run, while the short-run inflation dynamics are mainly influenced by domestic shocks. Moreover, the importance of the foreign inflation component has had a rising trend in the precrisis period in all NMS and mostly coincided with their accession to the EU. This trend ended with the onset of the global financial crisis. The study implicates the need to augment the classical Taylor rule with foreign factors in the case of small open economies.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

充分发挥商贸流通业稳定物价的功能作用

目前,我国正处于防止通货膨胀上升为主要目标的经济环境中,在治理通胀的过程中,一定要慎用直接干预.商贸流通服务业在众多供求矛盾的结构性问题上,对扼制、稳定物价,特别是稳定居民消费价格具有强大功能；电子商务、网上购物已经成为化解通胀的生力军,可以低成本为民生提供便利和节约时间,充分展示天然化解时空矛盾的功能；同时,积极引导商贸流通业增强经营决策的预见性,对大宗商品、农产品价格波动,要深入细致具体分析,做到两个分清；而体制性、制度性成本是最大祸害,“十二五”规划应该将降低流通领域的体制性成本作为主攻方向.另外,必须剔除轻商蔑商的封建意识,构造公平公正的舆论氛围,澄清商人的是非功过,搞清商人存在的缘由和真相,还商人以正面的社会形象.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

通货膨胀与金融行业的非理性繁荣:基于1978年～2009年数据的实证研究

通货膨胀的盛行推动了金融行业的非理性发展与繁荣.文章基于统计数据从通货膨胀的微现影响与宏观表现两个层次展开了实证研究,分析了金融业过度膨胀的深层次原因,并提出了相关的政策建议.     

Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India

In the policy debate on growth–inflation trade-off and the role of monetary policy in managing the trade-off in the short-run, theoretical and empirical research suggests the presence of a country specific threshold level of inflation. Empirical findings of this paper suggest that for India the threshold level of inflation could be around 6%. The inflation target for monetary policy may have to be somewhat lower than the growth maximizing threshold, since any positive inflation could be a risk to inclusive and sustainable growth objective.     

浅析我国当前通货膨胀的成因及治理对策建议

稳定物价已成为政府宏观调控的重中之重。为避免由于种种原因形成的通货膨胀给我国经济发展带来较大的负面影响,我们必须采取相关措施,要持续的将总量政策和结构政策相很好的组合起来,进行短期应急计划和措施与建立能长期保证制度正常运行并发挥预期功能的制度体系相结合,综合的采取各种各样的政策组合,比较有指向性地使用各种各样的措施在一定程度上减少对造成物价上涨的各种不利因素,抑制通货膨胀蔓延,使我国经济稳定的发展。