Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.     

基础设施、拥挤性与城市生产率差异——来自中国267个城市市辖区数据的实证研究

针对我国城市空间结构和劳动生产率差异明显的现状,对我国267个地级城市的基础设施情况进行指标评价,并根据评价结果实证分析了基础设施水平、城市拥挤性对城市生产率的影响。研究结果表明,基础设施和就业密度对我国城市生产率的积极作用,同时两者的合力对城市生产率具有较强的驱动作用。     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

Institutional environment and firms' sources of financial capital in Central and Eastern Europe

The external business environment is a major determinant of which sources firms select to obtain financial capital. We examine how the regulatory, political, and financial dimensions of the institutional environment influence the extent to which firms rely on informal sources of financial capital. The analyses of data from 2869 firms in twenty-six transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) indicate that ineffective regulatory system, underdeveloped financial system, and government corruption are strong determinants of firms' reliance on informal channels for financial capital. We also find that smaller firms are more vulnerable when the local financial system is underdeveloped and the regulatory institutions are less effective in these transition economies. A subgroup analysis of firms' forms of establishment shows that private firms are sensitive to the level of development of the local financial system and state-owned enterprises are particularly sensitive to the degree of corruption.     

央行和商业银行视角下存款准备金率的实证分析

本文分别从央行货币政策调控目标和商业银行对存款准备金率容忍度的视角出发,利用参数法和神经网络模型对存款准备金率进行实证分析。研究发现,央行近年来多次上调存款准备金率主要是为了对抗通货膨胀以及回收货币流动性。在不考虑银行容忍度下,参数模型给出的目标存款准备金率为23%,而在考虑了存款准备金率对银行的负面影响后,根据神经网络模型得出2011年上半年合理的存款准备金率应为21.34%,与当前21.5%的实际存款准备金率相符。说明央行在货币调控时考虑到了银行的容忍度,是符合宏观审慎性原则的。而模型的敏感性分析表明,未来存款准备金率仍旧存在上调的区间与上调的可能性。     

引致需求、路网密度与中国道路运输业营运绩效评价——基于DEA模型与面板Tobit的两阶段分析

本文基于产出导向的BCC-DEA模型对中国道路运输业在2000-2009年期间的营运效率进行了测算,并采用受限随机效应面板Tobit模型检验了各种外部环境因素对于道路运输业营运效率的影响;此外,还结合基于非参数DEA的Malmquist生产率指数,对中国道路运输业全要素生产率进行了动态评价。实证结果显示,纯技术效率较低是中国道路运输业营运效率较低的主要原因,而且突发性外部环境冲击是道路运输业营运效率出现较大幅度波动的重要因素;样本期间内道路运输业全要素生产率呈现出较为平稳的增长态势,这主要得益于道路运输业较为明显的技术进步;单位面积生产总值等引致需求因素以及公铁基础设施等路网密度因素,均是影响道路运输业营运效率的重要因素。     

浅析“网络谈心”的利与弊

":网络谈心"是南通大学"谈心屋"衍生出的一种子模式,是一种为了适应时代的快速发展和信息的高速进步而产生的思想政治教育新途径、新方法。"网络谈心"使谈话双方跳出了谈话时间、地点等诸多方面的限制,使谈心者可以畅所欲言。本文试图通过对"网络谈心"的利与弊分析,从而对"网络谈心"在高校"谈心屋"中的发展起到一定推动作用。     

浅谈网络时代的大学生思想政治教育

本文论述了网络时代大学生思想政治教育面临的挑战和机遇,并且简单介绍了在网络时代,大学生思想政治教育的创新。     

网络时代大学生思想政治教育工作初探

随着科学技术的不断发展,互联网已经走进了人们的生活、工作和学习中,但网络是把"双刃剑",极大地丰富了大学生的业余生活,同时又严重地危害了大学生的身心健康。因此,如何在网络时代加强大学生思想政治教育工作已成为一个无法回避且亟待解决的重大课题。本文主要讨论网络给当代大学生带来的负面影响,并结合造成的危害,提出了在网络环境下思想政治教育工作的对策。     

网络系统并行数据库中数据均衡分配方案的探讨

介绍了网络并行机群的特点以及目前并行机系统新的发展趋势,分析了网络并行机群环境下,并行数据库数据分布中数据倾斜问题的特点,提出了一种具有适应环境能力的动态数据均衡分配方案。