失业风险预警系统研究

基于我国29年的历史数据,采用BP神经网络模型对我国的失业风险预警问题进行研究。结果表明,神经网络方法在失业风险系统中具有优良的预警效果,其对失业风险综合警情值的预测误差小于3％。相对于景气分析预测法、时间序列分析、灰色预测模型以及回归预测模型等技术,神经网络方法不仅具有良好的预测精度,同时还具备较强的容错能力和泛化能力。因此,在构建我国的失业风险预警系统中,神经网络模型应该是一种被优先考虑的方法。     

网络购物行为影响因素实证研究--基于双渠道视角

线上、线下双渠道运作已经成为互联网时代传统企业渠道变革的一大趋势,越来越多的现代消费者变成了双渠道消费者,越来越多的商家在利用传统销售渠道销售产品的同时也通过网络直销模式进行产品销售。本文基于现有网络购物影响因素文献,整合多渠道选择理论和顾客价值理论,构建了双渠道下消费者网络购物行为影响因素模型并提出相应假设。同时以桂林电子科技大学学生消费者为研究对象,以双渠道为研究视角,对消费者网络购物行为的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究得出了五个驱动消费者进行网络购物的影响因素并实证证明了其分别对消费者网络购物选择行为具有显著的正向影响。最后,针对实证分析结论,探讨了相应的实践意义与研究不足,以期为企业营销决策提供参考。     

A tourist kit ‘made in Italy’: An ‘intelligent’ system for implementing new generation destination cards

This study investigates the advantages and the potentiality of the ‘tourist kit’, an Italian solution based on the concept of a prepaid card that is issued by a large postal operator. The destination card can be reloaded by tourists according to their needs and its validity is not restricted to short periods. Thus, the kit provides tourists with an integrated, practical, and flexible tool capable of making their stay more enjoyable as it allows cardholders to choose and buy many products and services at discounted prices. The kit creates customer loyalty by utilising smart technology aimed at collecting accurate tourist information. This model deserves attention because it is probably the world's first case of a large postal operator entering the tourism sector with the proposal of an integrated and advanced destination card scheme. This research also discusses interesting opportunities and challenges related to the implementation of new generation tourist cards.     

IP城域网网络安全防护

随着网络应用的日益普及,电子商务等一些敏感应用逐步走进我们的生活中,网络安全成为日益迫切的需要,这对我们的网络维护工作提出了更高的要求。针对IP城域网网络安全问题找出其解决方法,具有普遍实施的意义。     

创业网络结构属性如何影响创业学习方式的选择——基于印记理论的单案例研究

创业网络对具有新进入缺陷的新创企业以及创业者而言有着至关重要的作用,不仅表现为"知识源"作用,也表现为"印记源"作用。印记理论指出个体或组织在其容易受到影响的时期,外部环境的显著特征将对其产生重大影响,个体和组织将打上环境特征的烙印,并且这种烙印将持续影响个体和组织的行为。基于此,本研究基于印记理论,利用对一家创业企业的归纳式纵向单案例分析探讨创业网络不同的结构属性经由何种印记过程,继而影响创业者学习方式的选择。结果表明：当创业网络表现为封闭、半开放以及开放的不同网络结构时,经由不同结构属性导致的结构印记和认知印记过程差异,影响着创业者实验式学习、观察式学习以及协同式学习的不同选择。     

企业创新柔性组态路径研究——一个模糊集定性比较分析

创新柔性对企业在不确定性环境下保持健康稳定发展至关重要,如何提升企业创新柔性受到学界关注。现有文献侧重研究单个因素对创新柔性的净效应,鲜有分析多因素对创新柔性的协同效应。基于组态视角,运用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA),探讨网络能力和知识共创两个层面的5个变量对企业创新柔性的联动效应及其作用路径。结果表明,网络愿景、网络构建、网络管理、联合型知识共创和嵌入型知识共创均不是构成企业高、非高创新柔性的必要条件,且单个前因条件对创新柔性的解释力较弱,说明影响企业创新柔性的因素是多方面的;存在3条提升企业创新柔性的路径,即资源获取型、发展—管理型和单一型;导致企业非高创新柔性的路径有两条,且与高创新柔性路径影响因素存在非对称性关系。研究不仅能丰富创新柔性相关理论,还可为企业提升创新柔性提供思路借鉴。     

The power of market mood — Evidence from an emerging market

This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.     

理实一体化在网络互联教学中的应用

本文阐述了理实一体化教学，并对其在网络互联教学中（包括课程标准、教学内容、教学实施、教学方法）的应用进行了深入的探索，最后对其在教学实践中收到的良好效果给予了肯定。     

构建多语言环境的计算机基础课程自主学习平台

为开展计算机基础课程的双语教学和提学生自主学习能力。作者结合教学实践，提出构建智能化网络学习平台，并对平台的设计思想、教育理念和技术难点进行了论述，供人们进一步开展网络教学研究作参考。     

Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.