新贸易保护主义的特征演变及其理论依据

新贸易保护主义是特指二战以来西方发达国家的各种贸易保护理论及其政策措施。20世纪90年代以来,新贸易保护主义原有的特征产生了一些变化,表现为更多地寻求多边贸易体系下的合法性保护;对进口保护的重新重视;从非关税措施的明显性保护转向隐蔽性保护;从单纯贸易政策转向经济、竞争政策,这些演变背后存在众多的理论支持,研究这些演变及其理论依据具有重要的理论与现实意义。     

Transport development and the evolution of economic geography

In this paper, based on the recent advances in the new economic geography (e.g., Fujita et al. [12]), we analyze impacts of transport costs on the spatial patterns of economic agglomeration. We first identify prototypes from the existing models, and explain the mechanism of how transport costs influence the balance between economic forces of agglomeration and dispersion. We then investigate the transformation of the agglomeration/dispersion patterns given gradually decreasing transport costs for different goods.Received: Received: July 2004 / Accepted: January 2005, Accepted: Received: July 2004 / Accepted: January 2005, JEL Classification: R12Tomoya Mori: Correspondence toThe authors are grateful to David Bernstein, Tatsuo Hatta, Komei Sasaki, Tony E. Smith, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. This research is partly supported by The Grant in Aid for Research 08403001 of Ministry of Education, Science and Culture in Japan, the Murata Science Foundation, and WESCO Civil Engineering Technology Foundation.     

Dynamic technological learning trends in Turkish manufacturing industries

Efficient development of industries requires a broad range of technological capabilities which can be acquired only by a long process of learning. Continuous measuring and monitoring of the ever-changing technological learning would be useful for building technological capability and managing technological policies. Nevertheless, research on how to measure the technological learning over time at macro levels remains largely untouched. In this paper, by adding the experience curve into the multifactor productivity part of Neoclassical production function, we will develop a model which will allow one to estimate the technological learning levels over long periods. This model would allow a user to both estimate the past learning experiences and forecast its future path on a time varying basis. The model has been used and tested in the estimation of the annual technological learning values for 28 Turkish manufacturing industries from 1981 to 2000.     

Testing the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the Euro Area

This paper tests the significance and the non-linearity of the Phillips trade-off in the aggregate Euro Area, in an unobserved components model of stochastic NAIRU and trend output featuring the Phillips equation and the Okun law as main identifying equations, with quarterly data for 1970:I-2002:III. The Phillips curve turns out to be linear and its trade-off statistically significant, while non-linearity shows up in the Okun relation. The results prove to be robust to alternative lag length structures of the model, and to alternative non-linear functional forms. The trend-cycle decompositions estimated with the model capture the main features of the Euro Area’s recent macroeconomic record.First version received: 1 September 2003 / Final version received: June 2004CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.We thank comments on earlier versions by Fabio Canova, Miguel St Aubyn, Alvaro Almeida, Pete Richardson, Kevin Ross, and two anonymous referees. We acknowledge James D. Hamilton’s help with the confidence bands. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: September 2003     

企业所得税税率调整的经济影响探析

从税率的调整角度,对新旧企业所得税税率的规定进行比较,分析新企业所得税税率的经济学内涵:统一税率为内外资企业发展创造公平竞争的市场环境;拉弗曲线最优税率的经济学诠释;新税法确立了中等偏低的具有国际竞争力的税率,提出了新税法将对企业及经济运行的影响。     

中国商业银行操作风险控制战略结构模型研究

根据新巴塞尔资本协议的精神,操作风险管理正成为商业银行风险管理的核心内容。操作风险控制战略结构模型的设计是有效地实施风险控制战略行为的前提,而模型设计过程必须借鉴国内外商业银行操作风险管理的实践经验,认为因子分析可以对模型的有效性和可靠性提供检验。     

我国商业银行利率风险管理技术探究

随着利率市场化的不断深化,我国商业银行日益面临重大的利率风险。本文简要分析了利率风险的基本态势,同时考察并探究了利率风险管理技术如何适应这类变化。     

米塞斯与奥地利学派经济学

米塞斯与哈耶克是新奥地利学派的代表人物,哈耶克的国际学术声望和地位要高于米塞斯,但米塞斯却是当然的精神领袖。米塞斯培养出了第三代、第四代遵循和发展奥地利学派传统的经济学家,而且新奥地利经济学的几乎所有贡献或者始于米塞斯的著述,或者源于进一步发展其观点的努力。这些贡献对自由市场制度作出了不同于新古典主义经济学的解读。如果要想对市场之所以有效率的广泛基础和某些重要细节获得更好的理解,自然不能忽视米塞斯的贡献。     

新农村建设视野下消除农民贫困的战略思考

建设社会主义新农村是中国现代化进程中的重大历史任务,该文论述了农民贫困是建设新农村的重大障碍,提出了消除农民贫困,建设新农村的途径：一是进行制度创新,实施反贫困战略;二是大力发展经济,扩大农村就业;三是以市场为导向,加快调整,提高效益;四是立足自身优势,发展特色农业;五是搞好农产品精细加工,促进农业产业化发展;六是强化服务,转变职能,提高农业的社会化服务水平;七是坚持科技兴农,拓展增收渠道;八是搞好农村市场建设,畅通销售渠道;九是加快农村城镇化进程;十是加强教育培训,增强农民素质。