民间投资与产业转型——以浙江省为例

本文以浙江省为例,利用浙江改革开放后30多年的数据资料,对民间投资比重和三次产业的比重进行协整建模分析,分析结果表明,民间投资对浙江三次产业结构的变化起到重要的作用。民间投资比重上升是拉动浙江第三产业比重上升的原因,从而也说明了浙江第三产业的发展主要是依靠民间资本的投入;但对第二产业而言,民间投资对其的作用是反向的,这说明浙江第二产业的发展主要不是依靠民间资本的投入,而是依靠政府的投资。     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Foreign Direct Investment in China: Determinants and Effects

This paper attempts to assess the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China and its effects on the whole economy. After presenting the main theoretical contributions and the previous works done about China’s inward-FDI, an empirical study has been implemented extending the previous ones with a different data set (more recent) and with different methodologies. The traditional determinants of FDI seem to be relevant for China: domestic market size, cost advantages and openness to the rest of the world. Concerning the consequences of FDI on the Chinese economy, our empirical evidence supports the view that FDI affects China’s growth through the diffusion of ideas. Through the introduction of new ideas, multinational firms develop technical progress and hence long-run economic growth. The transmission of ideas seems to have had a positive effect on the Chinese growth. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

挤出还是挤入:外商直接投资对国内投资的效应

本文通过将聊引入投资模型,进行FDI对我国国内投资挤入或挤出效应的回归分析,结果表明,从当期效应看,全国FDI对总投资增加具有显著性的影响,但地区差异明显,东部和中部的FDI对总投资有显著性的正影响,而西部FDI的增加,具有减少总投资的效应;从长期效应看,就全国整体而言,FDI对国内投资具有挤入效应,但并不显著,东部以及西部的外商直接投资对国内投资有挤出效应,但并没有拒绝对临界水平1的虚拟假设,因而FDI对国内投资的这种挤出效应并不显著,而对于中部,FDI对国内投资具有很强的挤入效应.最后,基于研究结果,提出了相关建议.     

上市公司债务融资短期化成因与治理方略

短期债务具有流动性好、财务灵活性强、名义利率低等一系列优势,但过量短期债务的使用会给企业带来较大的财务风险。鉴于我国上市公司债务融资存在的严重短期化现象,应针对这种短期化债务融资的弊端与成因,提出改变不良状况的学术见解和解决问题的方略。     

湖北省财政科技投入机制创新研究

在借鉴国内外财政科技投入经验的基础上,对湖北财政科技投入结构、财政科技投入方式、财政科技资金分配方式3个方面进行了研究,提出了加快推进湖北财政科技投入机制创新的对策。     

股东对创新投入的反应：股权激励异质性的信号作用

以我国2017—2019年沪深两市A股实施股权激励的上市企业为样本,基于股东视角分析股东对创新投入信息的反应,探讨这一反应在股权高度集中时的变化,并考察高管团队股权激励异质性因素向股东传递信号的机制。结果表明,创新投入与股东反应正相关;股权集中度正向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系;股权激励异质性负向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系,且该效应在民企中更加显著;经营风险是股权激励异质性负向影响股东对创新投入反应的中介变量。     

Ambidexterity under digitalization: A tale of two decades of new media at a Swedish newspaper

The digitalization of the newspaper industry represents a significant challenge for incumbent companies to engage new technologies. Many companies in the industry have had to seek new markets through digital technologies to survive. This paper explores how one of the largest Swedish newspapers, Aftonbladet, has strategically embraced new media and new markets. We report a decade of engaged scholarship based on interviews and archival analysis that covers 20 years of strategic acts at the company. We consider this effort as a case of organizational ambidexterity under digitalization. The analysis seeks to extend theoretical understanding of the interrelationships between strategic intent and technological choice. The paper contributes to the understanding of ambidexterity under digitalization by theoretically framing it in terms of strategic acts. The research suggests that digitalization implies a more complex ambidexterity interrelationship between old and new markets and technologies. As digitalization enables the loosening of previously tight couplings, the clear theoretical distinction between old and new, and critically, the unproblematic transition, is brought into question. The paper suggests replacing the notion of an orderly shift from the old to the new with ambidexterity under digitalization as a duality of both old and new undergoing continual reconfiguration.     

A truly global crisis? Evidence from contagion dependence across international REIT markets

This study examines the global nature of the recent crisis under bivariate Markov-switching models for pre- and post-crisis periods using the breakpoint of August 9, 2007. It quantifies international synchronization of boom-bust regime switches to investigate contagion-type dynamic comovements of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Global REIT markets display persistent bust regimes from September 2008 to May 2009, whereas the regime-switching patterns are not significant in the pre-crisis period. The results provide new evidence for global REIT contagion phenomena and suggest greater difficulties in diversifying risks across global REIT markets during the post-crisis period.     

Racing in two dimensions

In this paper we study an industry in which there is an ongoing sequence of R&D races between two firms. Firms are engaged in product innovation. Products are horizontally and vertically differentiated. There are two key characteristics/dimensions to products, and the level at which these are embodied in products can be increased by R&D. At each time firms can spend R&D on improving their product in one or both dimensions. We allow the possibility of economies scope — so R&D undertaken in one dimension can spillover to the other. The question we are interested in is whether a firm that is ahead in a single dimension but behind in another will focus all its R&D effort in the area in which it is ahead (product specialisation), or whether it will try to do R&D in both dimensions in the hope that it might get ahead in both and end up with a superproduct that dominates in both characteristics. The outcome of this R&D competition determines a Markov transition probability matrix determining the evolution of the industry. We show that when the R&D technology is characterized by constant returns then the only steady-state outcome is one in which the economy stays forever in a position in which one firm produces a super-product and the other gives up doing R&D altogether. This outcome is unaffected by the degree of economies of scope. When the R&D technology is characterised by decreasing returns, then the industry will visit all states and so will exhibit both product specialisation and superproduct dominance at various times. Now the extent of economies of scope matters and we show that the greater the extent of economies of scope, the less likely is the industry to exhibit product dominance, and the more likely it is to exhibit product specialisation.