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91.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2020,36(2):713-722
In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances. 相似文献
92.
李宗玲 《中小企业管理与科技》2020,(4):89-90
乡镇政府是我国的基层单位,其开展的工作与我国广大群众的生活息息相关,与人民的利益也是紧密相连的。因此,乡镇政府财务管理工作极其重要,甚至影响着集体的进步与发展。但现实生活中,乡镇政府财务管理存在着很多问题,这些都需要引起我们的重视。论文详细列举乡镇政府财务管理存在的问题,并且就这些问题提出一些相应的、科学的解决方法与措施。 相似文献
93.
Using daily data from August 9, 2015, to July 7, 2020, this study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the returns of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. To this end, two new measures of EPU (Twitter-based economic uncertainty and Twitter-based market uncertainty) are considered. A Granger causality test using the recursive evolving window approach shows a significant causality between the Twitter-based EPU measures and the BTC/USD exchange rate from October 2016 to July 2017. Moreover, a significant causality was noted from the EPU measures to the ETH/USD exchange rate from June 2019 to February 2020 and from the EPU measures to the XRP/USD exchange rate from January 2020 to February 2020. The Twitter-based EPU measures primarily positively affect the returns of the related cryptocurrencies during these periods. These results are robust to different measures of Twitter-based EPU and different econometric techniques. Potential implications, including the COVID-19 era, are also discussed. 相似文献
94.
Among Asian economies, Hong Kong has experienced the highest real growth in house prices since the 2010s. Two macroprudential measures, namely credit tightening (loan-to-value ratio cap) and transaction taxes (stamp duty), were introduced to cool down the overheated housing market. This study examines and compares their effectiveness based on a set of constant-quality house price indices. Through an error correction model, we find that credit tightening was able to curb house price growth in the high-price segment, while transaction taxes could not. An explanation is that the exemptions from transaction taxes for those with genuine housing needs could be abused by other market participants. It is easier for buyers to exploit the exemptions to get around the stamp duty than to manipulate the property valuation for mortgage lending. The implication is that the effectiveness of macroprudential measures hinges on whether compliance or exemption can be easily monitored and enforced. 相似文献
95.
本文针对一起立式燃煤蒸汽锅炉炉胆鼓包变形事故,通过现场检验及材料金相,分析产生的原因,提出相应的预防措施。 相似文献
96.
本文在系统研究10kV变电所实际运行情况的基础上,阐述了一种有效的安全管理机制,即安全管理两票三制制度体系。 相似文献
97.
石油企业库存精细管理模式的建立与实施是石油行业发展的必然趋势。随着油田勘探、开发产能规模的不断扩大,物资保障和物流成本二者之间的矛盾日益突出。本文对石油企业库存精细管理模式的主要管理措施进行了分析论证。 相似文献
98.
99.
地铁项目工程在施工过程易受地形地貌以及水文等自然条件的制约,因此会经常出现工程变更的情况,会直接影响工程造价的变迁。基于这种情况,结合地铁三号线的相关做法和经验,分析地铁项目工程变更管理中存在的问题与相应的完善措施。希望对地铁项目工程的变更管理起到一些借鉴。 相似文献
100.
卢良艳 《中国保险管理干部学院学报》2014,(3):62-65
根据对湖南省农村信贷现状的调查,进而对湖南农村信贷在发展中存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了完善湖南省农村信贷的发展对策. 相似文献