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排序方式: 共有825条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
32.
The main goal of both Bayesian model selection and classical hypotheses testing is to make inferences with respect to the
state of affairs in a population of interest. The main differences between both approaches are the explicit use of prior information
by Bayesians, and the explicit use of null distributions by the classicists. Formalization of prior information in prior distributions
is often difficult. In this paper two practical approaches (encompassing priors and training data) to specify prior distributions
will be presented. The computation of null distributions is relatively easy. However, as will be illustrated, a straightforward
interpretation of the resulting p-values is not always easy. Bayesian model selection can be used to compute posterior probabilities for each of a number of
competing models. This provides an alternative for the currently prevalent testing of hypotheses using p-values. Both approaches will be compared and illustrated using case studies. Each case study fits in the framework of the
normal linear model, that is, analysis of variance and multiple regression. 相似文献
33.
34.
Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics. 相似文献
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics. 相似文献
35.
在用户对系统带宽以及传输速率要求越来越严格的当下,小蜂窝技术成为解决室内和热点场景覆盖和容量问题的有效途径。为了缓解小蜂窝中切换失败率和乒乓切换率之间的矛盾,首先建立了小蜂窝网络场景下的切换模型,通过采用参考信号接收功率方案对用户终端(UE)的移动轨迹进行跟踪而达到速度估计的目的;之后,推导分析了该模型中切换失败概率、乒乓切换概率与切换触发时间、UE速度的关系;最后,采用遍历算法对切换触发时间进行优化选择。仿真结果表明,所提方案能够将切换失败概率降低到接近于零,同时将乒乓切换率降低了10%,很好地缓解了两者之间的矛盾,更适合于对乒乓切换敏感的高速移动UE。 相似文献
36.
Youri Pavlovich Lukashin 《Economics of Planning》2000,33(1-2):85-101
The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models. 相似文献
37.
Computational suite of models with heterogeneous agents II: Multi-country real business cycle models
Wouter J. Den Haan 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2011,35(2):175-177
This paper describes the second model considered in the computational suite project that compares the performance of different numerical algorithms. It is a multi-country model in which countries face different productivity shocks. Solving such models is a challenging numerical problem unless the number of countries is small. The solutions are functions of a large set of arguments and the functional forms are unknown. Moreover, the solution procedures have to deal with high-dimensional integration problems. 相似文献
38.
In the analysis of clustered and longitudinal data, which includes a covariate that varies both between and within clusters, a Hausman pretest is commonly used to decide whether subsequent inference is made using the linear random intercept model or the fixed effects model. We assess the effect of this pretest on the coverage probability and expected length of a confidence interval for the slope, conditional on the observed values of the covariate. This assessment has the advantages that it (i) relates to the values of this covariate at hand, (ii) is valid irrespective of how this covariate is generated, (iii) uses exact finite sample results, and (iv) results in an assessment that is determined by the values of this covariate and only two unknown parameters. For two real data sets, our conditional analysis shows that the confidence interval constructed after a Hausman pretest should not be used. 相似文献
39.
理论文献已经证明了细分数据模型的内生性和加总过程产生的内生性是加总偏误的根本原因。但是由于内生性涉及误差项与回归量之间的相关性问题,试图通过实证方法审视这两类内生性对加总偏误的影响变得比较困难,而数值模拟却是一个较为理想的方法。在数值模拟中,我们通过控制随机变量的分布形式以及随机变量之间的相关程度,进而对两类内生性因素产生的加总偏误进行全面细致的考察。本文的研究将为加总偏误的内生性解释提供有力证据。 相似文献
40.
Andrés Navarro-Galera Salvador Rayo-Cantón Dionisio Buendía-Carrillo 《Applied economics》2013,45(58):6257-6276
Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments. 相似文献