我国央行公开市场操作策略与流动性效应

本文检验了不同操作策略下中国央行公开市场操作流动性效应。通过构建并计算央行公开市场操作指标值,根据取值区间将公开市场操作定义为五种操作策略。本文采用2006年10月至2012年3月的数据,估算了每月超额准备金,并计算出实际的公开市场操作指标值,利用排序自回归法证实了央行公开市场操作对利率有非线性影响,进一步建立非线性多阈值自回归模型,研究了不同操作策略的公开市场操作对3个月短期市场利率的影响。实证结果表明央行公开市场操作可分为四种策略,主要表现为防御性功能,但不存在周流动性效应。     

从增长与通胀的多重组合看我国的滞胀风险

通过基本菲利普斯曲线及英变换,探讨增长与通胀的多重可能组合,分析了开放条件下菲利普斯曲线的变化以及“滞胀”组合的成因。在此基础上,重点回答中国是否面临“滞胀”风险,以及如何避免出现“滞胀”局面。     

未来十年综合航电系统的发展趋向

我国的合同法对代位权的客体做出了明确的限定,这使得代位权制度在实际运用中碰到了一些困难,本文对代位权的客体和抵押权能否成为代位权的客体进行了分析和探讨。     

How to overcome the implementation gap in ecosystem services? A user-friendly and inclusive tool for improved urban management

One of the main issues with the concept of ecosystem services is its absence on the ground in concrete operational decision-making contexts; that is, an implementation gap. In this study, we investigated if this gap could be overcome through the use of open-source data and free tools, and the adoption of a short-term participatory process. We tested these methods in the context of a project in the urban metropolitan area of Bordeaux (Communauté urbaine de Bordeaux: CUB) in France. The ecosystem services were defined using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders, and then selected scenarios were simulated to test the impact of various development or conservation plans. The study addressed three main questions: (1) Is it possible to adopt a simple methodological approach that overcomes the implementation gap through the development of a user-friendly and inclusive method? (2) What is the added value of a participatory approach? (3) With regards to four scenarios in this territory, what are the ES trends in the selected biophysical and monetary indicators, and will knowledge of these trends help planners to shape a sustainable trajectory for the territory?     

Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical VAR model based on the in-sample fit over the majority of New Zealand’s inflation-targeting period. We evaluate the real-time out-of-sample forecasting performance of the DSGE-VAR model, and show that the forecasts from the DSGE-VAR are competitive with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published, judgmentally-adjusted forecasts. The Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior also provides a competitive forecasting performance, and generally, with a few exceptions, out-performs both the DSGE-VAR and the Reserve Bank’s own forecasts.     

公开市场业务与货币政策有效性——1997后中国货币政策传导梗阻的症结探析

1997年后我国一直实施“积极的”货币政策 ,但货币政策在传导过程中出现了梗阻 ,所起的作用远不尽如人意。公开市场业务是中央银行最重要的一个间接货币政策工具 ,作为公开市场业务主体的国债市场是央行公开市场操作的基本依托。我国国债市场在规模、流动性等方面发展滞后 ,仍是一个不成熟、不发达的市场 ,这使我国货币政策传导产生梗阻 ,严重抑制了货币政策效应的发挥     

创业导向对创新绩效的影响:顾客授权与开放式创新视角

开放经济下企业往往利用开放式创新范式进行技术创新。从开放式理论视角探讨创业导向对创新绩效的作用机制,重点探讨顾客授权的调节作用。以开放式创新为中介变量,以顾客授权为调节变量,构建一个被调节的中介作用模型。采用259家制造业企业的调查问卷数据检验研究假设,结果表明:开放式创新部分中介了创业导向与创新绩效间关系,顾客授权正向调节创业导向与开放式创新间关系以及开放式创新与创新绩效间关系,顾客授权与创新绩效呈正相关关系。最后,提出了管理建议和未来研究方向。     

开放型技术双元、交互吸收能力与企业国际化进入模式选择

选取2008—2019年中国研发活跃度较高的4个行业269家上市企业为样本,采用层次回归模型和Logit模型分析中国企业开放型技术双元能力和不同技术组合交互吸收调节作用对企业绩效的影响,从双元吸收角度对企业国际化进入模式选择进行比较后发现：①中国企业开放型技术双元具有显著开发型和内向型特征,企业跨国双元吸收能力不足造成组织开放型双元压力,并对企业跨国多元化经营和长期绩效产生抑制作用;②相对于技术风险、制度风险和多元化风险,双元吸收风险成为中国企业绩效提升与国际化进入模式选择互动关系的优先考虑,具有较高跨国探索吸收能力的中国新兴行业企业倾向于选择跨国并购模式,而母国双元、跨国双元间交互吸收能力较高的制造业企业倾向于选择绿地投资模式;③中国企业国际化路径选择实践表明,比较竞争优势能够有效弥补后发国家企业跨国双元吸收能力不足的缺陷,并使企业国际化模式选择多元化,反映出开放型双元吸收能力是后发国家企业国际化进入模式选择的充分非必要条件。     

英美中三国远程开放大学教学模式比较研究

本文对英国开放大学多种教学媒体支持的自主学习模式、美国国家技术大学的课堂教学远程传播模式、中国中央广播电视大学的"学导结合"的教学模式进行介绍和比较,并对我国发展现代远程开放教育进行了深入思考。     

A conceptual framework for misfit technology commercialization

The emerging literature on outbound open innovation has highlighted innovation processes, which presuppose active outward technology transfer to increase firm profits. To contribute to this discourse, our paper goes beyond the emphasis on core-related technologies and knowledge that currently dominates the technology management literature and develops the novel concept of misfit technology. This concept captures technologies that are not aligned with a focal firm's current knowledge base and/or business model, but which may still be of great value to the firm if alternative commercialization options are considered. By developing a framework that acknowledges (1) Sources of misfit technology, (2) Environmental uncertainty, (3) Organizational slack, (4) Industry appropriability regime and (5) Technological complexity, we theorize on how different modes of commercialization relate to misfit technology commercialization success. The paper is conceptual and is presented with the purpose to spawn further research on this important topic, but simultaneously touches upon the issues of utmost relevance to R&D management practice.