管理期权及其在投资决策中的应用

本文从传统投资决策折现现金流方法(DCF)的固有缺陷入手,对管理期权的概念、价值、类型进行了分析,探讨了管理期权在项目决策中的具体应用,并指出管理期权与传统的DCF法在项目投资决策中可能得出不同的结论,从而拓展了企业项目投资决策的方法。     

Foresight on biopharmaceuticals: Designing foresight methods for Spanish biopharmaceuticals

This paper has as its starting point the analysis of the systemic failures in the Spanish Biopharmaceutical Innovation System grounded in the study carried out by the same authors for the OECD between 2002 and 2004. Based on the evidence that one of the main failures is the lack of sufficient linkages between the different actors involved in the dynamic of the system, this paper proposes third-generation foresight as an instrument of science and innovation policy for resolving the problem of systemic failures. Foresight exercises could become an important instrument for reorienting policy, building new networks and linkages among the different actors, bringing new stakeholders into the strategic debate, exploring future opportunities for investment in science and innovation activities, etc. The objective of this paper is the design of a foresight exercise on biopharmaceuticals with the aim of solving, or at least reducing, the failures of this Spanish sectoral system of innovation and in consequence making it stronger.     

硒与健康的关系及对运动的影响

硒是人体必需的微量元素之一，在人体内含量过低或过高都会对肌体健康产生不利影响。有关硒对运动能力的影响近年来引起人们尤其是运动医学界的广泛关注，文章在简要介绍硒元素生物学作用的基础上，重点阐述了其与几类相关疾病和运动的关系。     

投票信托与股东投票协议

为保护中小投资者的利益 ,建议在我国建立投票信托制度和股东投票协议制度。投票信托制度是指应当允许一个或多个股东设立一个投票信托组织 ,把股票转让给受托人 ,并授予受托人在一定期限内行使投票权或其它活动的权力。股东投票协议制度是指允许部分股东就特定的股东大会决议事项按照约定的方式行使表决权     

我国推出人民币外汇期权产品的相关问题探讨

全球化趋势下,我国人民币衍生品市场的运作势在必行,我国在具备经济及金融各方面的基础之上,可以在适当的时机推出场内人民币外汇期权。外汇衍生品在宏观经济、风险管理和价格发现等方面发挥着巨大功能作用的同时,也容易引发重大的风险事件。所以,推出人民币外汇期权,必须重视相关的风险管理,正确引导各方市场参与者。     

科学膳食助力运动提高国民身体素质

适度的、规律的运动与强大的免疫系统之间存在密切的关系,而运动作为一种特殊的体力活动又与日常膳食存在千丝万缕的关系。本文结合营养与运动的相关知识,对运动与免疫力的关系、运动中科学膳食的意义及如何实施运动中的科学膳食3个方面进行探究,切实助力国民身体素质、免疫力的提高。     

Optimal farm size in an uncertain land market: the case of Kyrgyz Republic

This article applies a real options model to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998–2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results suggest three main conclusions: (i) the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is an important factor in land development decisions, (ii) farmer behavior is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model, and (iii) farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size, once uncertainty is properly accounted for.     

Service customization: To upgrade or to downgrade? An investigation of how option framing affects tourists’ choice of package-tour services

Package-tour operators often tailor trips to fit travelers’ personal requirements to create higher customer value. In practice, there are various options available for presenting an identical package tour to potential customers. This research investigates how option framing influences travelers’ decision making in a package-tour customization task. Based on a behavioral study and a logistic regression analysis, our results show that: (1) when both upgrading (i.e., starting from an economic package and customizing upwards) and downgrading (i.e., beginning with a luxury package and customizing downwards) methods are available, more consumers prefer upgrading to downgrading; (2) consumers customize their tour packages to a higher total price in the downgrading condition; (3) after separating peripheral service from core service attributes, our results further reveal that option framing affects peripheral services more than core services; and (4) consumers who are quality conscious and promotion-focused are more likely to choose a downgrading method for package-tour customization. Combined, these findings offer important managerial implications for travel companies.     

Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises

The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for structural credit risk models developed by Duan [Duan, J.-C., 1994. Maximum likelihood estimation using price data of the derivative contract. Mathematical Finance 4, 155–167] is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470]. We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm’s asset volatility. The estimated magnitude of trading noise is in line with the direction that a firm’s liquidity will predict based on three common liquidity proxies. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.     

Differentiating use and nonuse values for coastal pond water quality improvements

This paper measures the benefits of water quality improvements in three coastal ponds on the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, U.S.A. Use, option, and existence values were elicited from Martha's Vineyard property owners by the contingent valuation method. On average, more than half of the total benefits are attributed to existence value. Results from the Heckman selection model show that the exclusion of protest, as well as missing bids, does not cause significant bias in estimating respondents' willingness-to-pay. Socioeconomic characteristics are found to have distinctively different influences on use, option, and existence values. Different model parameters are likely to be estimated depending on which value categories are measured by a selected valuation technique. These findings emphasize the importance of nonuse values from water quality improvements and of socioeconomic characteristics for measuring different categories of values.Associate Scientist, the Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Support for this research was provided by the Pew Charitable Trust, and the Marine Policy Center. Thanks are due Elliot Backerman for making the data available to the author, and Peter Britz and Sarah Repetto for research assistance. Comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper from Steven Edwards, A. Myrick Freeman, Porter Hoagland, Raymond Kopp, V. Kerry Smith and two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged. This article is WHOI Contribution No. 7752.