Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment, and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.     

Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment,investment, and employment: A numerical analysis

Eastern Germany and the Conflict between Wage Adjustment, Investment, and Employment: A Numerical Analysis. — In this paper, some light is shed on the dynamics of the adjustment process in eastern Germany by studying the linkages between the dynamics of wage adjustment, investment, and employment. An extended dynamic investment model, which includes adjustment costs for capital and revision costs for investment, is presented. This model is specified according to the east German economy and analyzed numerically by an optimization method based on direct collocation. Results are obtained for the time horizon of adjustment and for the implications of different wage strategies on the path of investment and employment.     

Money,interest rate spreads,and economic activity

Money, Interest Rate Spreads, and Economic Activity. —Numerous empirical studies for industrial countries have shown that the term structure of interest rates is a good indicator for future output growth. This paper analyzes whether the interest rate spread contains any additional predictive power if the model includes the money stock. A multivariate error-correction framework is applied to three European economies — France, Germany, and Italy. Granger causality tests are performed for various monetary aggregates and the term structure. The evidence concerning the marginal information content is mixed: For France and Italy, the term structure does not improve the results of the basic model whereas it is significant for Germany.     

Reforming Hungarian agricultural trade policy: A quantitative evaluation

Reforming Hungarian Agricultural Trade Policy: A Quantitative Evaluation. — In this paper, the authors quantitatively assess the consequences for Hungary of: (i) removing its quantitative import restraints in agriculture, (ii) removing the export subsidy program in agriculture, and (iii) adopting an EU-type “CAP” system in Hungary. The consequences are estimated through the use of a small open economy computable general equilibrium model for Hungary, calibrated to the year 1990. The tariff equivalent of the import licenses was estimated through a detailed price comparisons study, the first of its kind for Hungary. Import protection, export subsidies and a potential CAP system would contribute significantly to the Government's fiscal problems.     

Tourist accommodation,consumption and platforms

The expansion of mediated accommodation on peer to peer (P2P) platforms, such as Airbnb, has generated extensive economic impact and structural changes in all the destinations involved. This study proposes an innovative analysis which estimates the economic impact associated with the expenditure of tourists staying in traditional hotel establishments in comparison to the impact of those staying in tourist housing mediated through P2P platforms. This research analyses fieldwork based on 1343 surveys carried out in the city of Granada, one of the main tourist destinations in Spain. Through the application of the input–output methodology we found that tourists staying in tourist housing mediated through P2P platforms generate a greater impact as a consequence of longer average stays and more heterogeneously distributed consumption. Their average expenditure is similar to that of tourists in hotels, but the indirect impact generated is greater. Consequently, we can better comprehend the economic impact associated with these platforms and their real effect. Public planners have to consider this information as part of the regulation and restriction of this activity.     

Asymptotic subadditivity/superadditivity of Value-at-Risk under tail dependence

This paper presents a new method for discussing the asymptotic subadditivity/superadditivity of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for multiple risks. We consider the asymptotic subadditivity and superadditivity properties of VaR for multiple risks whose copula admits a stable tail dependence function (STDF). For the purpose, a marginal region is defined by the marginal distributions of the multiple risks, and a stochastic order named tail concave order is presented for comparing individual tail risks. We prove that asymptotic subadditivity of VaR holds when individual risks are smaller than regularly varying (RV) random variables with index −1 under the tail concave order. We also provide sufficient conditions for VaR being asymptotically superadditive. For two multiple risks sharing the same copula function and satisfying the tail concave order, a comparison result on the asymptotic subadditivity/superadditivity of VaR is given. Asymptotic diversification ratios for RV and log regularly varying (LRV) margins with specific copula structures are obtained. Empirical analysis on financial data is provided for highlighting our results.     

Voting patterns of big eight representatives in setting accounting and auditing standards

The “Big Eight” accounting firms are alleged to dominate the setting of accounting and auditing standards. This paper identifies the recent criticisms and reviews the standard setting procedures of the APB, FASB, and the ASB. The results of five empirical studies designed to investigate the alleged domination issue are summarized. The conclusion drawn is that there is no empirical evidence to indicate that the Big Eight collectively govern the accounting and auditing standard-setting process.