Bailout uncertainty in a microfounded general equilibrium model of the financial system

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest rates, the volume of defaults and the real economy. The distinction between risk and uncertainty is implemented by applying the multiple priors framework to beliefs about the probability of bailout.Results of the analysis include: (i) An unanticipated increase in bailout uncertainty raises interest rates, the volume of defaults in both the real and financial sectors and may lead to a total drying up of credit markets. (ii) Lower exante bailout uncertainty is conducive to higher leverage, which in turn raises moral hazard and makes the economy more vulnerable to expost increases in bailout uncertainty. (iii) Bailout uncertainty affects the likelihood of bubbles, the amplitude of booms and busts as well as the banking and the credit spreads. (iv) Higher bailout uncertainty is associated with higher returns’ variability in diversified portfolios and higher systemic risks, (v) Pre-crisis expansionary monetary policy reinforces those effects by inducing higher aggregate leverage levels. (vi) The larger the change in bailout uncertainty and the change in aversion to this uncertainty, the stronger the pre-crisis buildup and the deeper the ensuing crisis.A central policy implication of the analysis is that the vaguest is bailout policy prior to a crisis, the lower is the magnitude of investments destroyed or missed due to errors in evaluating bailout and other intervention policies. On the other hand, the clearer is bailout policy upon the eruption of a crisis, the smaller the contraction of credit and the destruction of investment activity.     

Macroprudential policy and imbalances in the euro area

Since its creation the euro area suffered from imbalances between its core and peripheral members. This paper checks whether macroprudential policy applied to the peripheral countries could contribute to providing more macroeconomic stability in this region. To this end we build a two-economy macrofinancial model and simulate the effects of macroprudential policy (regulating the loan-to-value ratio) when the core and the periphery are exposed to asymmetric shocks. We find that macroprudential policy is able to substantially lower the amplitude of credit and output fluctuations in the periphery. However, for the policy to be effective, it should be decentralized. Very similar conclusions hold when welfare is considered as the optimality criterion.     

The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market

We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of market activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar. Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of government debt management in both the short and long run.     

浅析我国P2P网络借贷平台的问题与监管对策

P2P网络借贷是近年来在互联网金融创新大潮下新兴的行业,它在推进金融创新,促进普惠金融发展,拓宽居民投资渠道,增加居民收入,解决目前困扰我国中小企业融资难等问题方面具有巨大的促进作用,对推动我国的金融体制改革也起着一定的倒逼作用。然而,任何一个新事物出现的同时也会伴随产生相关的问题,P2P网络借贷也不例外。特别是近期以来,大量P2P网贷平台公司出现大量的负面事件,成为困扰该行业健康发展的重要问题。本文通过分析当前P2P网贷平台发展中存在的问题,提出旨在促进P2P网络借贷有序健康发展的四项举措。     

任务型教学法和传统3P教学在阅读课中的对比

任务型教学法在提高学生独立思考，应用语言表达自己思想和全面看问题方面的确有3P教学所不能及的效果。高职英语阅读教学更需要引入任务型范式来提高其英语应用能力。     

Habit formation and the present-value model of the current account: Yet another suspect

In a recent paper, Gruber (Gruber, J.W., 2004. A present value test of habits and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics 51, 1495-1507) claims that habit formation in consumption plays an important role in current account fluctuations in selected developed countries, extending the present-value model of the current account (PVM) with consumption habits. In this paper, however, I show that the habit-forming PVM is observationally equivalent to the PVM augmented with persistent transitory consumption, which is induced by world real interest rate shocks. Based on a small open-economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model endowed with consumption habits as well as persistent world real interest rate shocks, this paper resolves the inherent identification problem of the habit-forming PVM by Bayesian methods to seek effects of habit formation on current account fluctuations in typical small open economies, Canada and the United Kingdom. Results reveal no clear evidence that habit formation plays a crucial role in current account fluctuations.     

低温条件下泵站建设中大体积混凝土裂缝控制研究

文章结合西安市尚苑路雨水泵站工程中的大体积混凝土的设计与施工,对低温条件下进行施工的大体积混凝土的裂缝控制技术进行研究。     

Public health spending, tax reform, and long-run growth

Public health spending is introduced into an endogenous growth model to examine the effect of a tax reform on the growth and learning time. Unlike previous studies, the calibrated model produces an increase in the learning time, consistent with the US data.     

A short history of global inequality: The past two centuries

Using social tables, we make an estimate of global inequality (inequality among world citizens) in early 19th century. We then show that the level and composition of global inequality have changed over the last two centuries. The level has increased reaching a high plateau around 1950s, and the main determinants of global inequality have become differences in mean country incomes rather than inequalities within nations. The inequality extraction ratio (the percentage of total inequality that was extracted by global elites) has remained surprisingly stable, at around 70% of the maximum global Gini, during the last 100 years.     

Resident perceptions of the impacts of P2P accommodation: Implications for neighbourhoods

Although a research base is beginning to emerge in relation to the peer-to-peer accommodation phenomenon, the voices of residents are seldom heard in this scholarly literature. This study uses Social Exchange Theory to examine resident perceptions regarding the impact of P2P accommodation growth, and specifically Airbnb, on their neighbourhood. Fifty-one semi-structured interviews were employed to illuminate understanding of how resident perceptions are formed in relation to the exchange relationship with Airbnb guests. Findings reveal a dominance of negative perceptions of socio-economic and environmental impacts. The study also contributes a typology of residents, based on their perceptions and behaviour towards associated impacts, which may guide policymakers and practitioners towards the adoption of an anthropocentric approach on P2P accommodation. The study concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications.