跨境人民币业务发展研究——基于货币国际化视角

本文在界定货币国际化概念的基础上,从跨境贸易人民币结算试点、资本项下跨境人民币投融资和国际货币合作三个角度分析了跨境人民币业务发展现状,探讨了推行跨境人民币业务面临的主要问题,并提出拓宽境外企业人民币来源渠道、增加境外人民币资金保值渠道、加强宏观经济管理能力、防范金融风险等政策建议。     

农村支付体系：现状审视、发展取向与构建策略

农村金融供给与需求不平衡,一个重要的原因就在于农村支付体系的滞后。无论是支付主体、支付基础还是支付工具、支付监管,都无法适应当下农村经济发展的新需求。本文在剖析农村支付体系发展模式及其取向的基础上,提出了农村支付体系的构建策略,即管理体制理顺策略、支付组织布局策略、支付工具创新策略、支付宣传先行策略和支付监管完善策略。     

Payment choice and currency use: Insights from two billion retail transactions

Using three years of transactions data from a discount retailer with thousands of stores, we study payment variation along three dimensions: transaction size and location; weekly and monthly frequencies; and longer time horizons. In each case, we connect empirical patterns to theories of money demand and payments. We show that cross-sectional and time-series payment patterns are consistent with a theoretical framework in which individual consumers choose between cash and non-cash payments based on a threshold transaction size, and we evaluate factors that may account for the variation in threshold distributions across locations and time.     

On the seasonality in the implied volatility of electricity options

Seasonality is an important topic in electricity markets, as both supply and demand are dependent on the time of the year. Clearly, the level of prices shows a seasonal behaviour, but not only this. Also, the price fluctuations are typically seasonal. In this paper, we study empirically the implied volatility of options on electricity futures, investigate whether seasonality is present and we aim at quantifying its structure. Although typically futures prices can be well described through multi-factor models including exponentially decreasing components, we do not find evidence of exponential behaviour in our data set. Generally, a simple linear shape reflects the squared volatilities very well as a curve depending on the time to maturity. Moreover, we find that the level of volatility exhibits clear seasonal patterns that depend on the delivery month of the futures. Furthermore, in an out-of-sample analysis we compare the performance of several implementations of seasonality in the one-factor framework.     

Which bank is the “central” bank?

Liquidity flows through a financial network cannot be accurately described using external processing constraints alone. Behavioral aspects of participants also matter. A method similar to Google's PageRank procedure is used to produce a ranking of participants in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System in terms of their daily liquidity holdings. Accounting for differences in banks’ processing speeds is essential for explaining why observed distributions of liquidity differ from the initial distributions, which are determined by the credit limits selected by banks. Delay tendencies of banks are unobservable in the data and are estimated using a Markov model.     

浅析支票影像业务发展缓慢的原因与对策

支票影像交换系统上线以来,打破了支票使用的地域限制,实现了全国通用,对于提升支票使用率、完善我国支付体系、支持经济发展具有重要的现实意义。但是,经过几年的发展,支票影像业务并未见很大增长,业务量也主要集中在一些大中城市。本文对这一现象进行了初步分析,并结合实际给出了相关建议。     

Towards a framework for supply chain finance for the supply side

Buyers increasingly offer financing alternatives to their suppliers – so called supply chain finance (SCF) practices for the supply side. Expected benefits however do not always materialize for involved actors. Guidance is needed when to provide these SCF practices to suppliers and why to select different types of practices. To provide this guidance, the paper involves an exploratory multiple-case study design including data within eight buyer-supplier-financial service provider triads. The findings explain contextual situations for the provision of SCF practices based on the contingency approach. They distinguish endogenous, relationship-related and exogenous contingencies within the aforementioned triads. Differentiation criteria are determined for the selection of SCF practices along the dimensions ‘time of financing’ (pre- versus post-shipment) and ‘source of funds’ (supply chain internal and external). Testable propositions and key learnings summarize the derived findings and form the basis to develop a contingency framework on SCF practices for the supply side.     

Determinants of the method of payment in mergers and acquisitions

We empirically investigate the determinants of the payment form in mergers and acquisitions and introduce new variables on the target and acquirer investment characteristics to evaluate whether the concerns of target and acquirer shareholders are taken into account. Our sample encompasses mergers between publicly listed US companies from 1985 to 2004. Similarly we also consider the determinants of announcement returns using the same set of variables. We establish the relevance of a previously unreported variable for the determination of the payment form, the correlation of returns between target and acquirer, besides the more established determinants hostile takeovers, and defence mechanisms; weak evidence is found for the significance of budget constraints and no evidence for asymmetric information or tax considerations being a relevant factor. We do not find that announcement returns are explained by the variables considered.     

最新信用证惯例背景下的过期提单问题研究

本文结合最新的国际贸易惯例《UCP600》分析了在外贸实务中经常出现的过期提单问题的风险和成因，总结甄别了理论界对过期提单的提出的各种处置意见，指出并纠正了部分错误观点。最后提出了应对提单过期的相应措施和建议，以期为广大的出口商规避因过期提单引起的国际贸易结算风险起到一定的指导作用。     

An agent-based model of payment systems

We lay out and simulate a multi-agent, multi-period model of an RTGS payment system. At the beginning of the day, banks choose how much costly liquidity to allocate to the settlement process. Then, they use it to execute an exogenous, random stream of payment orders. If a bank's liquidity stock is depleted, payments are queued until new liquidity arrives from other banks, imposing costs on the delaying bank. We study the equilibrium level of liquidity posted in the system, performing some comparative statics and obtaining insights on the efficiency of alternative system configurations.