安徽省高技术产业技术创新效率研究

运用因子分析定权法测算安徽省高技术产业的技术创新效率,结果发现技术含量相对较高的产业其技术创新效率较低,而技术含量相对较低的产业其技术创新效率反而较高。这说明安徽高技术产业走技术创新之路仅处于起步阶段,而市场环境是影响安徽技术创新效率的重要因素。     

折旧方法对盈亏平衡点的影响分析

分析了折旧方法对静态盈亏平衡点及动态盈亏平衡点的影响，结果表明，不同的折旧方法对盈亏平衡点的影响很大。     

Bayes方法在教学效度分析上应用与实现

本文提出了基于Bayes理论方法的多元数据融合方法,给出了该方法在教学改革中教学质量综合评估中的应用,并结合体育课内容制定的实例证明了该方法的有效性。     

钢结构随机有限元动力分析

钢结构在应用一段时间后,物理参数和几何参数的变化将导致结构参数发生某些不确定性的改变, 这将会影响结构的力学特性.从此问题出发,通过一个算例详细阐述了用摄动随机有限元法解决此类问题的实现过程.     

让精读课活起来——浅谈课堂上调动学生积极性的几个方法

大学外语教学中的精读课,其教学效果直接影响学生们的学习质量。找到适合自己和学生们的教学方法,就一定会调动师生双方的积极性,做到教学相长,寓教于乐。     

职业学校学生学习心理之浅谈

职业学校学生的学习心理在学习动机、学习兴趣、学习能力等方面有其特殊性。职业教育应合理构筑教 学计划、强化专业技能培训,提倡“以学为中心”培养学生学习兴趣,帮助、辅导学习有困难的学生。     

Threshold models for trended time series

This paper presents the theoretical development of a new threshold autoregressive model based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the model are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric model. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally we apply the model to the empirical investigation of U.S. GDP.This paper is the result of work carried out for the author's Ph.D. thesis. I would like to thank Hashem Pesaran for his help, encouragement and insights during the preparation of this paper. I also thank Gary Koop and Sean Holly for helpful comments. Financial assistance from the Economic and Social Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

The Effect of Protest Votes on the Estimates of WTP for Use Values of Recreational Sites

Contingent valuation studies are often characterized by a considerable number of protest responses, which may cause selectivity bias on the final estimates for WTP. Sample selection models can detect and – if necessary – correct selectivity bias. In economic applications where the relevant dependent variable is continuous, sample selection models are generally estimated using Heckman's 2-step method rather than the FIML estimator. Either method has its own drawback: computational complexity for the FIML method, susceptibility to collinearity problems for the 2-step method. Using data on valuation of forest resources for recreational use, we analyse the performance of the two estimators. In this application, given the presence of some collinearity, the FIML is preferred to the 2-step method. A procedure is outlined to deal with selectivity problems in similar settings.