Interest rate risk and optimal design of mortgage instruments

This article develops and analyzes a simple expected utility model for interest rate risk and mortgage choice. The model demonstrates how the risks of interest rate changes should be allocated between borrowers and lenders through varying mortgage payments. In general, we conclude that full protection against interest rate risk, as a normative guideline, is likely to be suboptimal for the typical household. Our results show that the optimal design of adjustable rate mortgages should include an interest rate CAP provision.An earlier version of this article was presented at the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Meetings, Atlanta, Georgia, December 27–30, 1989.     

The effect of cash flow statement format on lenders' decisions

This study investigates bank loan officers' use of financial information and reports, in particular, cash flow information and the statement of cash flow (SCF), in making lending decisions. Subjects were drawn from four groups of frequent users of financial reports-bank loan officers, auditors, financial analysts and accounting academics. Each subject was presented with the annual reports of two loan applicant companies to make two independent lending decisions based on the information provided. The SCF of one of the companies was presented in the direct format, while the other was presented in the indirect format. The indirect format of SCF was used as a surrogate for the funds flow statement. Results show that, while cash flow was the second most used financial information, the majority of the subjects obtained this information from financial statements other than the SCF, notably, the balance sheet. In terms of financial report usage, notes to the financial statements, rather than the SCF, was most frequently used. No subject made use of the incremental information provided in the SCF presented in the direct format. The results suggest that loan officers do not use the cash flow information provided by the SCF, but rely on the accounting information provided in the FFS and accrual-based financial reports.     

Small business lending and the bank-branch network

I examine the role of bank’s distance to the borrower and the proximity of other lenders for the transmission of financial shocks across the bank network. I use a novel dataset of small business lending based on information from the Community Reinvestment Act, which measures lending at census tract groups within each county and yields rich variation in the bank–borrower and borrower–competitor distance. I document that small banks with increased liquidity from proximity to local oil booms, originate more loans to firms far from these booms, and lenders with above-average geographic exposure to residential booms reduce lending in census tract groups with stable house prices. Bank–borrower distance is important for credit expansions, with closer firms receiving more credit, but not for contractions. Proximity of competitors plays a key role: consistent with theoretical predictions, both credit expansions and contractions disproportionately affect markets where the bank faces higher competition.     

货币政策改革创新是否有利于抑制企业“脱实向虚”？

本文利用手工整理的我国中期借贷便利的数量和利率数据,匹配2014-2021年我国上市公司数据,考察中期借贷便利政策对企业金融化的影响。结果表明,中期借贷便利利率的适度下降显著降低了企业金融化水平。进一步研究发现,中期借贷便利政策对投机交易活跃、融资约束较强、税收负担较重、地区金融化水平较低的企业影响更为显著;其作用机理在于,中期借贷便利利率适度下降,会引导银行贷款利率适度下降,从而降低企业融资成本,保障企业中长期流动性合理供给,提高企业投资水平,缓解企业“脱实向虚”。本文从企业金融化角度分析了货币政策传导效果,有助于厘清货币政策改革创新产生的经济效应及作用机理,对中国式现代化新征程中如何更好地进行总需求管理具有一定参考意义。     

搭建货币市场和债务资本市场的桥梁——评Shibor基准政策性金融债的发行

《同业拆借管理办法》的推出为货币市场乃至整个金融体系基准利率建设提供了制度保障;而以Shibor为基准政策性金融债的发行,则使Shibor利率体系的基准性延伸到债务资本市场,并成为市场成员信息反馈的桥梁,大大推进了基准利率体系的建设和完善。     

P2P网络借贷平台爆发风险事件问题的研究——基于实物期权理论的视角

基于实物期权理论,本文构建了P2P网络借贷平台爆发风险事件的结构模型,籍以从理论上来揭示P2P网络借贷平台爆发风险事件的内在机理。本文将P2P网络借贷平台爆发风险事件的问题视同为永久美式看跌期权的最优行权问题,并在几何布朗运动的框架内,根据最优停时理论求得了P2P网络借贷平台的价值。继而通过使用Laplace变换法,本文给出了平台爆发风险事件的理论概率的显式解,并发现:平台融资人还款金额的增长率、平台融资人还款金额的波动率、风险准备金的规模等因素会对平台爆发风险事件的理论概率产生显著的影响。本文还通过数值模拟发现:平台融资人还款金额的增长率越大,平台爆发风险事件的理论概率则会越小;平台融资人还款金额的波动率越大,平台爆发风险事件的理论概率也会越大;风险准备金的规模越大,平台爆发风险事件的理论概率则会越小。     

东莞市中小企业关系型贷款实证研究

本文在对国内外关系型贷款理论及实证研究进行了较详细梳理的基础上,针对国内关于中小企业关系型贷款实证研究主要只考虑其对贷款定价的影响,而缺少对关系型贷款理论有效性的实证检验的这一不足,本文运用多元logistic方法,利用2007年东莞市中小企业和金融机构的相关融资调研数据,从企业和银行两个角度进行了回归分析,为我国中小企业关系型贷款的存在性提供了直接证据,同时还研究了银企合作关系对中小企业获得贷款机会的影响,得出了针对我国沿海发达地区中小企业和金融机构发展的两点启示。     

贷款技术、设立取址与村镇银行小微企业贷款

本文选取东中西部六个省份200家村镇银行作为研究样本,实证分析了村镇银行贷款技术、设立取址与小微企业贷款发放量之间的关系。研究结果表明：（1）经济发达地区村镇银行小微企业贷款发放量明显低于经济欠发达地区;（2）村镇银行在发放小微企业贷款时,更倾向于使用关系型贷款技术。随着地区金融基础设施的完善,村镇银行所使用的贷款技术中交易型贷款技术的比例逐渐增加,且小微企业贷款发放量也呈递增趋势;（3）当主发起人为农村金融机构时,村镇银行的小微企业贷款发放量明显高于主发起人为非农金融机构的村镇银行。因此,为了进一步缓解小微企业融资难,政府应当采取积极措施鼓励村镇银行更多的设立在能发挥其小微企业贷款比较优势的欠发达地区,尤其是当主发起人为农村金融机构时;同时,应当努力完善地区金融基础设施,以方便贷款技术的创新与应用。     

论团体贷款对信贷市场低效率的可能改进

团体贷款以其骄人的还款率和在扶贫方面的突出表现吸引了众多经济学家和政策制定者的目光。但是 ,现有研究更多的是从不同角度来解释并不需要抵押或担保的团体贷款的还款率为何如此高 ,而忽视了团体贷款与个人贷款的效率的比较。对于“团体贷款的效率是否比个人贷款的效率更高 ?”和“团体贷款对信贷市场中的低效率问题有无改进以及是如何改进的 ?”等重要问题的回答构成了该研究领域中的核心内容。     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.