《同业拆借管理办法》保障市场健康发展——专访中国人民银行金融市场司司长兼上海总部金融市场管理部主任穆怀朋

作为十年来最重要的同业拆借政策调整,《同业拆借管理办法》（中国人民银行令[2007]第3号）颁布以来,市场参与者反响积极,同业拆借市场发展步入了一个新阶段。在《同业拆借管理办法》颁布一周年之际,本刊记者带着一系列受到业界广泛关注的问题,对中国人民银行金融市场司司长兼上海总部金融市场管理部主任穆怀朋先生进行了专访。     

中国P2P网络借贷平台风险及其决定因素研究

研究目标：中国网络借贷平台风险及其决定因素。研究方法：在分析整体特征、检验问题与正常平台风险差异基础上,运用Logistic模型分析平台出险的决定因素,并进行包括Probit模型在内的稳健性检验。研究发现：整体上,平台基本为民营公司,整体实力弱;股东少,公司治理机制弱;利率高,业务集中度风险高,违约控制措施少;营运两极分化。结构上,问题类平台与正常平台之间的道德风险及公司治理、营运风险差异显著;标的利率、业务多元化、违约控制措施也差异显著。道德风险及公司治理、信用管理和营运风险越高,平台出问题的可能性越大。研究创新：提出四类风险假设及指标体系并进行实证检验。研究价值：防范平台出险,确保其健康发展。     

Relationship Banking and the Pricing of Financial Services

We investigate pricing effects of the joint production of loans and security underwritings. We control for firm and borrower characteristics, including differences in sequencing, which are important for pricing. Contrary to previous studies, when banks combine lending and underwriting within the same customer relationship they charge premiums for both loans and underwriting services. Abstracting from effects of joint production within relationships, depository banks engaged in underwriting price lending and underwriting more cheaply than stand alone investment banks. One advantage borrowers enjoy from bundling products within a banking relationship is a form of liquidity risk insurance, which is manifested in a reduced demand for lines of credit. We also find evidence of a “road show” effect; firms enjoy loan pricing discounts on loans that are negotiated at times close to the debt underwritings, whether or not the same bank provides both services. Relationship effects are only visible when lending and underwriting both occur, and are stronger for equity-loan relationships than for debt-loan relationships. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

融资融券业务个人客户违约概率计量研究

伴随股市波动加剧,证券公司融资融券业务信用风险形势日趋严峻。违约概率被用于客户准入管理、风险定价与信贷组合管理等多个方面,处于信用风险管理的基础性地位。本文使用Probit、Logistic与Extreme Value模型,讨论融资融券业务个人客户的违约概率计量。在融资融券业务开展时间较短、数据积累与整理工作尚不完善的情况下,本文重点使用信用账户的资产负债结构信息计量违约概率,并从模型准确性与拟合性的角度,使用ROC曲线与Brier评分方法对三种模型进行比较与验证。研究结果表明:三种模型均具有较强的区分能力,但Extreme Value模型准确性最强,拟合效果最好,最适合于计量融资融券业务的违约概率。     

Ownership,evergreening and crisis: an analysis of bank–firm relationships in India

Employing data on publicly listed firms for 1995–2012, the article examines the behaviour of bank lending and interest cost and how it evolved during the crisis. The evidence suggests that high-Non-performing Loans (NPL) main banks raised their lending and lowered lending rates during the crisis, especially to risky, low-profit firms, indicative of a flight from quality. A disaggregation of the possible reasons for the flight from quality provides evidence in favour of short-termism behaviour by banks. The analysis also provides evidence in support of tunnelling by risky firms, which became amplified during the crisis. The net effect of these developments was a perceptible reduction in overall employment.     

关于“套路贷”犯罪的调查和思考——以台州为样本

“套路贷”犯罪不仅侵犯被害人的财产权和人身权,还严重扰乱金融秩序和社会管理秩序,甚至成为其他暴力犯罪的诱因。同时,“套路贷”犯罪呈现多罪名叠加耦合,又兼具民间借贷的迷惑性、犯罪手段的隐蔽性、组织分工的复杂性,给司法实践带来不少难题。文章以台州市为样本,系统分析“套路贷”刑事犯罪的特点、手段以及违法行为的四种表现形式,从主客观两方面查找难点、分析成因,并提出有针对性的建议。     

Network VAR models to measure financial contagion

Financial contagion among countries can arise from different channels, the most important of which are financial markets and bank lending. The paper aims to build an econometric network approach to understand the extent to which contagion spillovers (from one country to another) aris from financial markets, from bank lending, or from both. To achieve this aim we consider a model specification strategy which combines Vector Autoregressive models with network models. The paper contributes to the contagion literature with a model that can consider bank exposures and financial market prices, jointly and not only separately. From an empirical viewpoint, our results show that both bilateral exposures and market prices act as contagion channels in the transmission of shocks arising from a country to other countries.     

证券融资交易国际监管改革进展及对我国的启示与借鉴

此次国际金融危机表明,影子银行由于缺乏监管、信息不透明、资本覆盖和流动性储备不足,成为系统性风险的重要来源。危机后,金融稳定理事会(FSB)和巴塞尔银行监管委员会等国际标准制定机构协调合作,制定了加强影子银行监测和监管的一揽子政策措施。其中,针对证券融资交易的流动性风险、杠杆风险、交叉传染风险和顺周期效应,提出了一系列监管措施建议,旨在防范证券融资交易的潜在系统性风险,维护全球金融稳定。我国在证券融资交易方面发布实施了一系列法规制度,但近期发生的“国海证券”等事件也暴露出部分证券融资交易行为不规范、反复开展证券融资交易产生流动性错配和杠杆风险、监管框架不够系统完整等问题,对金融市场稳定运行造成了一定的负面影响。本文论述了危机后国际标准制定机构提出的证券融资交易监管框架,结合我国业务发展情况和存在的问题,提出了完善我国证券融资业务监管的相关建议。     

Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q

How did deposit interest rate ceilings, an important feature of the U.S. regulatory regime until the mid-1980s, affect individual banks’ lending and the transmission of monetary policy to credit? I estimate the effect of deposit rate ceilings inscribed in Regulation Q on commercial banks’ credit growth using a historical bank level data set starting in 1959. Banks’ credit growth contracted sharply when legally fixed deposit rate ceilings were binding. Interaction terms with monetary policy suggest that the policy impact on bank level credit growth was non-linear and significantly larger when rate ceilings were in place. Bank size and capitalization mitigate these effects. At the bank level, short-term interest rates exceeding the legally fixed deposit rate ceilings identify policy induced credit supply shifts that disappeared with deposit rate deregulation and thus weakened the bank lending channel substantially since the early 1980s.     

新会计准则中借款费用对房地产企业的影响

围绕新借款费用会计准则对房地产企业会计工作产生的影响,阐述了借款费用及借款费用资本化的概念.分析了新旧借款费用会计准则的差异及新借款费用会计准则的实施对房地产企业产生的影响.