The determinants of China's lending rates and interest rates pass-through: A cointegration analysis

Based on quarterly data between Q4, 2008–Q4, 2017, this study examines the interest rates pass-through from policy rate to lending rates, and more broadly, the determinants of lending rates in China. The results show that while there is a certain level of pass-through from money market rates to lending rates, and the interest rates pass-through has improved after the interest rate liberalization completion on October 2015, this pass-through is also negatively affected by the asset quality of commercial banks and shadow banking activities as well. This study also finds that the macroeconomic condition also affects the lending rates.     

The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures

In a constantly changing economic environment, a country's ability to undertake institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. A wide range of determinants for institutional reforms have been identified. However, the impact of trust on reforms has not been fully addressed. We provide theoretical arguments why trust should influence institutional changes and test the relationship empirically. We find a significant positive relation between trust and the success of reforms with regard to government size, the legal system, and deregulation of private businesses and the labor market. Other policy fields are ambiguous.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.     

作为金融信息中介的网贷平台信息披露规则

从金融属性上看,网贷平台提供的是借贷信息中介服务。信息披露是其主营业务内容,平台不能参与借贷交易,否则将使流动性等风险大量集中到平台并引发严重后果。从法律性质来看,网贷平台则是借贷居间商,应当向交易双方履行相应的信息披露义务。网贷业务兼具金融和网络化特点,我国《合同法》第425条的一般性规定无法有效规制网贷平台的信息披露行为。P2P网络借贷信息披露监管规范虽初具体系,但还需围绕投资者等金融消费者保护这一根本宗旨进行改进,使信息披露内容以普通消费者等客户认知水平和需求为导向,信息披露义务的履行贯穿借贷合同存续的全过程,平台违反信息披露义务应当承担相应的民事责任等。     

Non-performing loans,moral hazard and regulation of the Chinese commercial banking system

Non-performing loans (NPLs) represent a major obstacle to the development of banking sector. One of the key objectives of the banking sector reforms in China has therefore been to reduce the high level of NPLs. To do so, Chinese regulatory authorities have injected significant capital into the banking system and scrutinized NPLs since 2003. This paper examines the impact of NPLs on bank behavior in China. Using a threshold panel regression model and a dataset covering 60 city commercial banks, 16 state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and 11 rural commercial banks during 2006–2012, we test whether lending decisions of Chinese banks exhibit moral hazard. The results support the moral hazard hypothesis, suggesting that an increase in the NPLs ratio raises riskier lending, potentially causing further deterioration of the loan quality and financial system instability. Policy implications of findings are evaluated.     

银行贷款技术创新对中小企业融资的影响——对中小企业保理融资的实证研究

从获取中小企业贷款决策信息的角度,相对于大银行而言,小银行具有在关系型贷款和市场交易型贷款上的动态比较优势。保理等新型交易型贷款技术在缓解国内中小企业融资难方面具有不可替代的重要作用,因此应加以开发与推介。商业银行应加强市场交易型贷款技术的引进与创新,并通过开发适合中小企业的金融产品来解决信息不对称和风险控制问题。     

Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?

When a mortgage borrower becomes seriously delinquent (i.e., defaults), the lender initiates a time consuming and complex recovery process that may or may not result in foreclosure and eventual disposition of the real estate collateral (REO). This research studies this transition process for a unique sample of subprime mortgages that were seriously delinquent on September 30, 2001. Eight months later, possible states for the delinquent loans, in order, are 1)to remain delinquent without deteriorating further, 2) foreclosure, 3) worsen, i.e., become more months delinquent, 4) bankruptcy and 5) cure. The data indicate that, relative to prime loans, when subprime loans become seriously delinquent (90 days or longer) they are about twice as likely to become REO but take about four times longer to get there. It is unusual for a subprime default to be cured suggesting considerable forbearance by subprime lenders. We explore determinants of the transition probabilities and find that the most economically important predictors of transition from default to any other state are the number of payments the borrower has made and the loan to value ratio.     

The spillovers,interactions, and (un)intended consequences of monetary and regulatory policies

Have bank regulatory policies and unconventional monetary policies—and any possible interactions—been a factor behind the recent “deglobalisation” in cross-border bank lending? To test this hypothesis, we use bank-level data from the UK—a country at the heart of the global financial system. Our results suggest that increases in microprudential capital requirements tend to reduce international bank lending and some forms of unconventional monetary policy can amplify this effect. Specifically, the UK׳s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) significantly amplified the effects of increased capital requirements on cross-border lending. Quantitative easing did not appear to have a similar effect and countries with stronger prudential capital regulations were partially insulated against the effects of these changes in UK policy. We find that this interaction between microprudential regulations and the FLS can explain roughly 30% of the contraction in aggregate UK cross-border bank lending between mid-2012 and end-2013, corresponding to around 10% of the global contraction in cross-border lending. This suggests that unconventional monetary policy designed to support domestic lending can have the unintended consequence of reducing foreign lending.     

Bank-to-bank lending channel and the transmission of bank liquidity shocks: Evidence from France

Good liquidity is essential for the banking system to function properly and supply credit to the real sector. However, several banks all over the world face large shocks to their liquidity supply due to numerous factors. This study contributes to the literature on the transmission of liquidity shocks by investigating the bank-to-bank lending behavior of French banks during the global financial crisis (2008 and 2009). In addition, we examine the factors strongly influencing the liquidity of the interbank deposits market. First, using a fixed-effects model on a sample of 85 French banks for the period from 2005 to 2010, we find that the deposits channel plays an important role in the transmission of liquidity shocks across the banking system. Second, we use difference-in-difference methodology to study the effects of liquidity shock on bank lending. Our results show that French banks reduced their bank-to-bank lending significantly during the financial crisis period. Moreover, our results suggest that the reduction could have been due to deposit activities.     

P2P网络借贷平台的羊群行为研究*--基于Logistic模型的实证分析

随着我国民间借贷日趋活跃,P2P网络借贷平台发展方兴未艾。对P2P网络借贷平台的羊群行为进行系统的实证研究具有现实意义。本文将影响P2P网络借贷平台后续投标的所有变量划分为4个维度,包括标的特征、信用特征、个人特征和往期借款,从这四个维度中选取了17个自变量构建Logistic回归模型,然后基于“拍拍贷”的1642条不同借款者的当前借款项目数据,利用Logistic回归方法分析了当前投标次数对获得后续投标可能性的影响。研究发现,当前投标次数能够对获得后续投标的可能性产生显著的正向影响,由此证明P2P网络借贷平台存在羊群行为。因此,需要从完善征信体系建设入手,降低P2P网络借贷平台的信息不对称性,避免羊群行为的盲目性给网络借贷平台资金安全带来的危害。