Second price auctions on general preference domains: two characterizations

Auction theory usually assumes the quasi-linearity of individual preferences. We drop this assumption and define an extension of second price mechanisms that applies to general preferences. It turns out that the extended second price mechanisms are the only rules satisfying efficiency, strategy-proofness, and a mild non-imposition property. Their definition is simple just as much as the definition of usual second price mechanisms: everyone reports his maximum willingness to pay and the bidder whose reported value is highest buys the auctioned object for the price equal to the second highest reported value. The characterization is valid if efficiency is replaced by envy-freeness. I gratefully acknowledge an associate editor and two anonymous referees for their very helpful comments. Hiroki Saitoh and Shigehiro Serizawa independently obtain a result that is closely related to my main result (see, Remark in Sect. 1). I thank them for sending me the paper and communication, and Yuji Fujinaka for informing me about their work. I also thank the financial support by KAKENHI (19310031).     

中国商业银行信贷业务经营中的贷款定价问题研究

近年来中国商业银行信贷业务快速扩张势头尤为强劲,但与其相适应的信贷业务经营收益水平却未随之同步提高,由此凸现出信贷业务快速扩张背后贷款定价问题的困扰。提高中国商业银行的贷款定价能力,从而在信贷业务经营过程中,卡准信贷资金成本与收益的啮合点,做到信贷业务经营成本的可控性,提高信贷业务经营收益水平是解决困扰之选择。     

网络商品价格搜寻与实证分析

本文以实证的方式研究了网络商品的价格离散程度,证明了由于互联网使信息在市场中呈现均衡分布,成本与价格的透明度被提高,从而网上商品价格也趋于收敛。在完全信息市场上,当信息获取成本极低或为零时,交易者反而减少了从事信息收集的积极性,信息搜寻者的搜寻周期和次数都将减少,决策的速度从而可以加快。网上信息搜寻沿着特定的路径进行,搜寻成本已不再是信息搜寻中最主要的影响因素,市场的成熟情况、网络的传输率等将成为搜寻原则中新的内容。     

国际热钱进入与国家粮食安全

2006年末以来,世界农产品价格大幅上涨,围绕粮食、食品的国内外投资和交易成为新的经济热点。作为世界粮食大国和人口大国,为控制通货膨胀,实施低粮价政策,这为国际热钱进入粮食领域提供了条件。本文分析了我国现有粮食管理体制下热钱进入的可能性、规模、方式和途径,在此基础上提出了打击热钱进入粮食领域的长效措施。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

电机车架线自动断电系统在焦家金矿的研究与应用

本文分析了运用脉冲信号检测,触发矿山井下电机车架线供电控制,直到电机车驶离控制区或拉下架线集电弓后,主机延时断电的原理与应用,解决了矿山井下电机车架线运行时长距离,长时间带电的弊端。是消除事故隐患,减少和避免人身触电事故的有效措施。     

When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

中国生猪价格波动特征分析

使用2000—2009年中国生猪批发价格月度数据,分析了我国生猪批发价格运动的轨迹。研究结果表明:近年来我国生猪批发价格年度内震荡加剧且具有明显的季节性波动特征。并利用ARCH模型对生猪批发价格波动的动态过程进行了分析,发现滞后1期及滞后5期的生猪批发价格变动与当期价格变动的方向相同,而滞后2期的批发价格对当期价格有回调作用。     

影子价格长短期划分及其计算

影子价格对资源配置具有重要的指导意义。但是影子价格的定义方式通常与短期生产相联系,而长期生产多资源要素的变化往往被忽视。区分生产短、长期,通过方向导数来确定长期生产资源调整的影子价格。     

Remittances as a social status signaling device

Like all human beings, migrants may have a concern about their prestige or social status in the eyes of left-home family and friends. They can remit money in order to signal their economic success and increase their status. We show that if migrants’ income is private information, unsuccessful migrants might accept a worsening of their living conditions and send back home large amounts of remittances only in order to make residents believe that they are successful. In some cases, successful migrants can signal their true favorable economic situation by remitting an even larger amount. The game presents various equilibria that differ with respect to the proportion and nature of the migrants who sacrifice consumption opportunities to status revealing actions.