Explaining the Persistence of Profits: A Time-Varying Approach

The present paper analyzes the determinants of profit persistence using a newly developed methodology that allows the persistence parameter to vary with time. It therefore addresses a significant limitation of previous persistence models, which have assumed unrealistically that persistence is fixed over relatively long periods of 20 years and upwards. The concentration of the industry is found to have a significant positive impact on profit persistence. However, at firm level, market share and risk have a surprisingly negative impact     

On the persistence of job creation in old and new firms

We analyze the persistence of new jobs in new and old firms. This measure assesses the sustainability of job creation in different circumstances. We find that new jobs in Austria last significantly longer in new than in old firms.     

高管持股对创新可持续性的影响研究

企业创新活动一旦中断将会产生巨大的调整成本损失。因此,如何保持企业创新可持续性是企业创新研究的重要问题。结合委托代理理论,探索了企业高管持股对创新可持续性的影响,并进一步讨论了高管过度自信与产权性质的调节作用。使用2003-2014年中国A股制造业上市公司面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明：高管持股对企业创新可持续性具有显著正向影响,高管过度自信则弱化了两者间正向关系,而相对于非民营企业,民营企业高管持股对创新可持续性的正向作用更强。同时考虑两种情境效应的综合影响时,在民营企业中高管过度自信的负向调节作用更强。最后,考虑了遗漏变量带来的“选择偏差问题”和内生性问题,采用基于Kernel匹配得分法的反事实检验,为实证结果提供了稳健性证明。     

Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?

An aggregation exercise is proposed that aims at investigating whether the fast average adjustments of the disaggregate inflation series of the euro area CPI is coherent with the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. Estimating a dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation sub-indices into a part due to a common macroeconomic shock and to sector specific idiosyncratic shocks. Although idiosyncratic shocks dominate the variance of sectoral prices, one common factor appears to be the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the heterogenous propagation of this common shock across sectoral inflation rates, and in particular its slow propagation to inflation rates of services, generates the persistence of aggregate inflation. We conclude that the aggregation mechanism explains a significant amount of aggregate inflation persistence.     

Information and the persistence of private-order contract enforcement institutions: An experimental analysis

We study an experimental market in which some sellers are prone to moral hazard, and in which a private-order contract enforcement institution exists that can mediate trade and prevent sellers from reneging on their contractual obligations. Using the institution to resolve the moral-hazard problem is costly. We demonstrate that in this market, the utilization of the private-order contract enforcement institution may make public and private market signals uninformative and inhibit learning. We study whether this potential information externality can limit adaptation away from the private-order institution when it is efficient to do so. Consistent with theory, we find inefficient persistence when the institution is used, but by contrast, efficient adaptation in other situations. Providing information to individuals who are using the private-order institution allows them to partially adapt.     

Repeated moral hazard with persistence

Summary. This paper considers the optimal contract when the current (hidden) action of an agent has a persistent effect on the future outcome. The optimal contract in a two-effort choice, two-period setting is characterized analytically and numerically. In particular, we show that persistence tends to make compensation less responsive to the first-period outcome. At the extreme, there are cases where the agent is perfectly insured against the first-period outcome: the agent obtains the same utility regardless of the first-period outcome. The model is extended to three periods. We also present a computational method to characterize an N-period model with two-period persistence.Received: 9 December 2003, Revised: 13 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D82, J31, J65. Correspondence to: Ayegül ahinWe are grateful to an anonymous referee, Jack Barron, Mark Bils, Hugo Hopenhayn, Per Krusell, Lance Lochner, Steve Williamson, and seminar participants at Concordia University, Purdue University, the applied theory meetings at University of Rochester, the Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory 2003, the Rochester Wegmans Conference 2002, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings 2003 for their comments and suggestions. We also wish to thank Vera Brencic, Nancy Marmon, and Roxanne Stanoprud for excellent research assistance.     

Long-term persistence in corporate capital structure: Evidence from India

This study examines the stability of corporate capital structure in a sample of listed Indian firms for the period 1988–2015. In general, the firms do not maintain a stable level of leverage over long durations. The firm specific temporal variations in leverage are large and significant. We find that capital structure models that incorporate time varying firm effects perform better in explaining the variation in leverage than those that employ time invariant firm effects. The cross-sectional distribution of leverage also exhibits considerable variations over time. The quartile decompositions of leverage cross-sections reveal that migrations across leverage quartiles are pervasive. Only the firms with low leverage ratios ratio exhibit some persistence in their leverage ratios. High leverage ratios are not rare but are invariably transient.     

Is the Euro-Area core price index really more persistent than the food and energy price indexes?

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence of the overall, core, food and energy Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices for the European Monetary Zone (HICP-EAs) and to identify its implications for decision-making in the private sector and in public policy.Using a non-parametric approach, our results demonstrate the presence of a statistically significant level of persistence in four HICP-EAs: headline, core, food and energy. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the core index does not reflect permanent price changes. We also find evidence that the food and energy price indexes are more volatile and more persistent than the other two price indexes. Our results also show a reduction in persistence for both the headline and the core price indexes after the implementation of the single monetary policy, but not for food and energy.These results have important implications for both the private sector and for policymakers who use the core price index as a reference in their decision-making. In particular, core price index can lead to erroneous perception of price movements.