基于个税递延政策的企业年金保障水平研究

国家明确以税收优惠的形式鼓励和引导企业和个人参加企业年金计划,并于2014年实施了个税递延政策。基于指标模型构建和数据模拟,本文对我国企业年金在个税递延政策实施前后的保障水平进行了比较,通过参数敏感性分析考察了投资收益、工资增长、退休年龄和缴费比例等因素的影响。研究发现,实施个税递延政策后企业职工的养老保障水平在较大程度上低于政策实施前,但不同性别、不同收入水平和不同缴费比例的企业职工保障水平降低的程度有所差异。收入水平和缴费比例越高的男性职工,个税递延政策实施后保障水平降低的幅度越高,但对女性职工而言,这种影响要弱一些。进一步,可以通过增加投资收益、延迟退休年龄和提升缴费比例等方法来提高企业职工的养老保障水平,这与目前正在进行的一系列改革方向也一致。     

A game of give and take: The introduction of multi-layer (water) safety in the Netherlands and Flanders

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Netherlands and Flanders introduced a risk-based approach to flood risk management (FRM), labelled as multi-layer (water) safety. In contrast to a flood defence approach, risk-based management stresses the need to manage both the consequences and probability of a flood. The concept has developed differently in the two countries, as we conclude from a discursive-institutionalist research perspective. The Netherlands is characterised by a high institutionalization of the traditional flood defence discourse and a more closed policy arrangement, whereas in Flanders, the flood defence discourse is less institutionalized and the arrangement is more open. In both countries we see an opening of the arrangement preceding the establishment of multi-layer (water) safety, but at the same time, actors stress different aspects of the concept in order to increase its compatibility with the existing policy arrangement. In the Netherlands, the focus is on probability management, in Flanders on consequence management. In the Netherlands, multi-layer (water) safety as a concept could be established because it stabilises the system in the short-term by reinforcing the importance of flood defence, whereas in Flanders, policymakers were receptive to the concept because it supports a shift of responsibility towards actors outside traditional water management.     

Solving the income fluctuation problem with unbounded rewards

This paper studies the income fluctuation problem without imposing bounds on utility, assets, income or consumption. We prove that the Coleman operator is a contraction mapping over the natural class of candidate consumption policies when endowed with a metric that evaluates consumption differences in terms of marginal utility. We show that this metric is complete, and that the fixed point of the operator coincides with the unique optimal policy. As a consequence, even in this unbounded setting, policy function iteration always converges to the optimal policy at a geometric rate.     

Multi-sectoral interdependencies of regional public infrastructure investments

Public investment decision-making processes involve multiple and interrelated sectoral and regional policy objectives and budget constraints. This paper presents a dynamic spatio-economic model that considers multi-sectoral investment interdependencies using data at the prefecture level in Greece. The expenditure allocation dynamics of most types of regional public investment are found to be competitive with each other. This outcome is attributed to the lack of policy coordination, technological and budget constraints, geographical factors, and equity and political considerations. The investment interrelationships may have a significant effect on future state funding needs and the strategic assessment of infrastructure development at the country level.     

货币传导异质性与实体经济流动性配置的“马太效应”

货币政策支持实体经济高质量发展的关键在于疏通货币政策传导机制,引导流动性进入重点领域和薄弱环节,因此货币资金的配置效率至关重要。本文基于交互效应面板分位数回归,测度货币政策对实体企业流动性的异质性效应。研究发现:在样本期内,实体经济流动性配置陷入了资金越充裕的企业越易于获得融资,越易于获得融资的企业资金越充裕的窘境。这种流动性配置的“马太效应”具体表现为,货币政策对尾部企业的支持力度不及头部企业的一半;虚拟经济对尾部企业的“分流效应”高达头部企业的3倍,从而强化了流动性配置的失衡。因此,当前密集出台的一系列普惠政策有助于提升流动性配置效率,进一步完善调控模式的关键在于健全现代化金融体系,增强货币政策的靶向性和针对性。     

A LITERATURE SURVEY ON PROPOSED AFRICAN MONETARY UNIONS

This study provides a survey of recent advances in the literature on proposed African monetary unions. The survey comprises about 70 empirical papers published during the past 15 years. Four main strands are discussed individually and collectively. They comprise the proposed: (i) West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), (ii) East African Monetary Union (EAMU), (iii) Southern African Monetary Union (SAMU) and (iv) African Monetary Union (AMU). We observe a number of issues with establishing the feasibility and/or desirability of potential monetary unions, inter alia, they are variations in: choice of variables, empirical strategies, sampled countries and considered periodicities. We address this ambiguity by reviewing studies with scenarios that are consistent with Hegelian dialectics and establish selective expansion as the predominant mode of monetary integration. Some proponents make cases for strong pegs and institutions as viable alternatives to currency unions. Using cluster analysis, disaggregating panels into sub-samples and distinguishing shocks from responses in the examination of business cycle synchronisation provide more subtle policy implications. We caution that for inquiries using the same theoretical underpinnings, variables and methods just by modifying the scope/context and periodicity may only contribute to increasing the number of conflicting findings. Authors should place more emphasis on new perspectives and approaches based on caveats of, and lessons from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and CFA zones.     

Progress in indicators to assess agricultural landscape valuation: how and what is measured at different levels of governance

Landscape is defined by the European Landscape Convention as “an area perceived by people, whose character is the result of the action and interaction of natural and/or human factors”. Many efforts have been devoted in addressing the core concepts on which this definition roots: perception and interaction of men and nature, but when coming to large (continental) scale assessments, the latter prevail on the former.This paper aims at presenting a framework for a measurable landscape awareness indicator as a key link to the public demand for a specific type of landscape: the agricultural landscape. This is a necessary effort to complement more physically based assessments, which include as well the impact of human activities on landscapes.The analysis is carried out at different levels of governance: EU and regional, using an example from the Alentejo region in Portugal and EU wide databases, and addresses conceptual and practical questions: what type of societal landscape awareness can be monitored and by whom (e.g., individuals, specific social groups, society as a whole); what are the landscape dimensions that should be assessed; what are the limitations imposed by data-related constraints. By applying the methodology to build composite indicators to map landscape societal awareness, the paper shows the regional and local meaning of indicator approaches developed at European level, presents developments for downscaling to regional level, while introducing the social component to support sound policy development for European rural landscapes.     

Scarcity of safe assets,inflation, and the policy trap

A goal of this paper is to make sense of the seemingly puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation – and the role of central banks in that behavior – during and after the Great Recession, particularly in the United States. To this end, we construct a model in which government debt plays a key role in exchange, and can bear a liquidity premium. If asset market constraints bind, then there need not be deflation under an indefinite zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Further, ZIRP may not be optimal under these circumstances. A Taylor-rule central banker could be subject to a ZIRP trap and persistently undershoot target inflation. As well, a liquidity premium on government debt creates additional Taylor rule perils, because of a persistently low real interest rate. We make a case that this is the key policy predicament currently faced by many central banks in the world.     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

Certification and minimum quality standards when some consumers are uninformed

We compare certification to a minimum quality standard (MQS) policy in a duopolistic industry where firms incur quality-dependent fixed costs and only a fraction of consumers observe the quality of the offered goods. Compared to the unregulated outcome, both profits and social welfare would increase if firms could commit to producing a higher quality. An MQS restricts the firms׳ quality choice and leads to less differentiated goods. This fuels competition and may therefore deter entry. A certification policy, which awards firms with a certificate if the quality of their products exceeds some threshold, does not restrict the firms׳ quality choice. In contrast to an MQS, certification may lead to more differentiated goods and higher profits. We find that firms are willing to comply with an ambitious certification standard if the share of informed consumers is small. In that case, certification is more effective from a welfare perspective than a minimum quality standard because it is less detrimental to entry.