人民币汇率波动对NFDI波动的影响及其检验

本文通过对我国NFDI资本流动性及其波动性的计算,检验了人民币/美元汇率波动对NFDI波动性的关系。通过实证分析表明,人民币汇率的波动将导致NFDI资本流动的明显不稳定。在理论研究的基础上,引申出其政策含义：在国际资本流动不断加大的今天,我们必须维护人民币/美元汇率的稳定,这样对于有效引导NFDI的资本流动和维护金融稳定都具有重要的意义。     

Bayesian forecasting and portfolio decisions using dynamic dependent sparse factor models

We extend the recently introduced latent threshold dynamic models to include dependencies among the dynamic latent factors which underlie multivariate volatility. With an ability to induce time-varying sparsity in factor loadings, these models now also allow time-varying correlations among factors, which may be exploited in order to improve volatility forecasts. We couple multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting with portfolio analysis using standard and novel benchmark neutral portfolios. Detailed studies of stock index and FX time series include: multi-period, out-of-sample forecasting, statistical model comparisons, and portfolio performance testing using raw returns, risk-adjusted returns and portfolio volatility. We find uniform improvements on all measures relative to standard dynamic factor models. This is due to the parsimony of latent threshold models and their ability to exploit between-factor correlations so as to improve the characterization and prediction of volatility. These advances will be of interest to financial analysts, investors and practitioners, as well as to modeling researchers.     

GLOBALISATION: PAST AND PRESENT

This article compares and contrasts the two modern eras of globalisation, namely the one that started in the mid-nineteenth century and ended on the eve of World War I, and the contemporary era. Although in both periods globalisation brought down national barriers and integrated economies and societies, there were distinct characteristic features of both periods. For example, the scale of global integration through trade and financial channels during the contemporary era was unmatched by the previous phase of globalisation. Furthermore, never in history had global integration involved so many countries and people, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the global population.     

焦点企业知识存量对联盟组合分裂断层的影响：知识转移效率的中介作用

运用断层理论,从知识获取和关系治理角度,分析焦点企业知识存量如何影响联盟组合分裂断层及分裂断层形成机理。基于焦点企业知识存量、分裂断层、知识转移效率、情景嵌入性之间的关系理论模型框架,认为焦点企业知识存量能够影响联盟组合分裂断层,其中,知识转移效率在这一过程中发挥中介效应,情景嵌入性发挥调节效应。结果发现：焦点企业知识存量与分裂断层之间存在显著负相关关系;知识转移效率能够部分中介焦点企业知识存量与分裂断层之间的关系;情景嵌入性能够正向调节焦点企业知识存量与知识转移效率之间的关系。     

Style chasing by hedge fund investors

This paper examines whether investors chase hedge fund investment styles. We find that better-performing and more popular styles are rewarded with higher inflows in subsequent periods. This indicates that investors compare hedge fund styles in terms of recent performance and popularity, and they subsequently reallocate funds from less successful to more successful styles. Furthermore, we find evidence of competition between individual hedge funds of the same style. Funds outperforming the other funds in their styles and funds whose inflows exceed the average flows in their styles experience higher inflows in subsequent periods. One of the reasons for competition among same-style funds is investors’ search for the best managers. The high minimum investment required to invest in a hedge fund limits investors’ diversification opportunities and makes this search particularly important. Finally, we show that hedge fund investors’ implementation of style chasing in combination with intra-style fund selection represents a smart strategy.     

外债风险预警模型及中国金融安全状况评估

本文提出了一个用于预警一国外债风险的动态模型 ,即多元累计和模型。模型的用户 (债权人和债务国 )能很早地预测到可能导致债务国重订债务期限的金融危机。实证分析结果表明 ,模型具有提前 3年探测到债务国潜在的还债困难的能力。对中国经济金融安全状况的评估结果表明 ,模型可提前 1年发出预警信号。     

Mutual fund flows and window-dressing

We use a sequential game to analyze an agency problem in the mutual fund industry where a representative fund manager considers window-dressing his portfolio holdings for the purpose of attracting fund flows from a representative investor. The manager is motivated to window-dress to improve the investor's perception of managerial skill which may positively affect fund flows in the next period. However, the investor may suspect window-dressing and thus downgrade perceived managerial skill. The model supports a Bayesian Nash equilibrium where the manager window-dresses only when receiving a low return in the first period and the investor withdraws funds only when observing low returns in both periods. Consequently, we show that window-dressing is a rational behavior even when fund outflows may result.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America in the 1990s

Summary

FDI in Latin America has witnessed a resurgence in the 1990s after the debt crisis and capital drought of the 1980s. This inflow results both from more market-friendly policies in the recipient countries and lower returns and growth in developed nations. The latter factor has also attracted many short-term, portfolio instruments to the continent which can be highly damaging to local economies when not properly regulated. Privatization has been among the more important country-specific variables attracting direct investors to the region. Despite the positive effects of FDI, Latin American countries are still beset with problems such as unequal distribution of income and poverty that direct investment is unlikely to ameliorate.     

Capital Inflows to Hungary in 1995–96 and the Accompanying Policy Responses

In order to analyze the composition and effects of, and the policy responses to, capital inflows to Hungary during 1995–96, we present an analytical framework that emphasizes the distinction between net capital flows to the private and public sectors (the latter includes the government and the central bank). This distinction is essential in Hungary's case, because figures for overall net inflows conceal the fact that huge net capital inflows to the private sector were accompanied by large repayments of foreign public debt, covered by significant privatization revenues. We present indicators of the domestic monetary impact of net capital inflows in order to analyze the magnitude, costs, and effects of sterilization. We note that extensive sterilization and the use of privatization revenues for public debt repayment largely explain why capital inflows to Hungary did not have significant effects on the real economy or on domestic monetary aggregates in the period reviewed.