A Spatial Modelling Framework for Income Estimation

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to provide a spatial modelling framework for income estimation through the application of a contemporary spatial analysis technique. The application refers to the modelling of mean recorded household income in the area covered by the postcodes of the municipality of Athens in 2001. The main findings suggest that there is a very strong relationship between the proportion of people with a postgraduate qualification (namely, a Master's degree or PhD) and mean household income. Furthermore, there is evidence that this relationship is not stationary across space. This finding allows a better understanding as well as modelling of the main determinants of income in Athens.     

Trade‐led growth hypothesis in Cuban commercial regimes since 19601,2

This study examines the impact of trade on Cuban growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning the period from 1960 up to 2004, encompassing two essential economic structural transformations: the Cuban revolution and the fall of the Berlin Wall. For this purpose, the Granger causality is used by means of the modified Wald test for augmented‐level vector autoregressive model with integrated and cointegrated processes introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutekepohl (1996) . We show an import‐led growth hypothesis during the Soviet‐oriented pattern that is rejected after 1990, when exports are not only responsive to growth expansion but also to imports’ behaviour.     

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability have seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of six case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.     

An environmental performance index for products reflecting damage costs

Several studies have demonstrated how to use DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) based techniques to estimate environmental performance indices. None of these studies, however, are taking information on the environmental damage costs of the pressure types considered into account. This study is bridging a gap between environmental indices founded in physical pressures and damage costs founded in welfare economics. The aim of the paper is twofold: first, to demonstrate how to implement the information on environmental damage costs within a DEA based environmental performance index, and second, to estimate these indices at product level by using Danish input-output data and environmental data from 1997.     

商业银行信贷组合管理及其模型构建问题的探讨

商业银行信贷风险管理的发展是从最初的对单笔贷款管理到把全部贷款看成一个组合加以管理,这是因为组合可以使得风险分散化。现代组合管理的理论(MPT)基础是从Harry Markowitz的分散化理论开始的,然而标准的组合模型应用在贷款组合时会存在诸多的问题。有效的信贷模型应满足建立信贷风险模型等方面的要求。     

Using Genetic Algorithms to Estimate and Validate Bioeconomic Models: The Case of the Ibero-atlantic Sardine Fishery

Synopsis The Neo-classical approach to fisheries management is based on designing and applying bioeconomic models. Traditionally, the basic bioeconomic models have used pre-established non-linear functional forms (logistic, Cobb–Douglas) in order to try to reflect the dynamics of the renewable resources under study. This assumption might cause misspecification problems and, in consequence, a loss of predictive ability. In this work we intend to verify if there is a bias motivated by employing the said non-linear parametric perspective. For this purpose, we employ a novel non-linear and non-parametric prediction method, called Genetic Algorithms, and we compare its results with those obtained from the traditional methods.     

Development of a Fuzzy optimization model,supporting global warming decision-making

An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by aFuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented asFuzzy parameters. TheFuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of theFuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier.     

An analytical model for the formation of economic clusters

A simple spatial economy derived from microeconomic foundations is presented to gain insight into the formation of economic clusters. In this model, the formation of economic clusters is a consequence of the competition between economic forces that are consistent with atomistic agents maximizing their utility. An analytic approach is used to obtain the evolution of economic clusters. With this approach, the number of clusters which will grow can be predicted. These results are derived in the traditional one-dimensional geometry and extended to the more realistic two-dimensional landscape.     

An optimization approach for managing fresh food quality throughout the supply chain

One of the most challenging tasks in today's food industry is controlling the product quality throughout the food supply chain. In this paper, we integrate food quality in decision-making on production and distribution in a food supply chain. We provide a methodology to model food quality degradation in such a way that it can be integrated in a mixed-integer linear programming model used for production and distribution planning. The resulting model is applied in an illustrative case study, and can be used to design and operate food distribution systems, using both food quality and cost criteria.