Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling

I propose applying the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). The new methods exploit the serial dependence on short-horizon returns to directly forecast the tail dynamics of the desired horizon. I perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample VaR and ES forecasts with established models for a wide range of financial assets and backtests. The MIDAS-based models significantly outperform traditional GARCH-based forecasts and alternative conditional quantile specifications, especially in terms of multi-day forecast horizons. My analysis advocates models that feature asymmetric conditional quantiles and the use of the Asymmetric Laplace density to jointly estimate VaR and ES.     

Customer acceptance of four types of hospitality value propositions

Although how successful hospitality companies create value propositions has received some interest, how and why customers accept value propositions remains largely unknown. Grounded in theory of acceptance and service-dominant logic, this study examined consumers’ psychological mechanism of acceptance of value propositions at different points of exchange, and investigated the impact of value propositions acceptance on customers’ well-being and perceptions of service advantage. Online respondents (N = 180) assessed four hospitality value propositions: innovation, marketing, production, and recovery. Repeated-measures ANOVA and PROCESS Model analyses revealed that customers accepted value propositions cognitively, emotionally, normatively, and behaviorally, positively influencing subjective well-being and perceptions of firm’s service advantage. Service production and recovery value propositions had higher acceptance compared to innovation and marketing. This study is the first to empirically illustrate the complex process of customer value proposition acceptance and the effects on personal and organizational outcomes. Theoretical and practical implications are provided.     

基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估:以索芙特公司为例

本文在介绍自由现金流量折现法相关原理的基础上,选取一家名为索芙特的化妆品上市公司,通过分析该上市公司过去五年的相关财务数据,并结合整个化妆品的行业环境以及该企业的发展现状,分析影响企业价值评估的宏观环境和微观环境,进而探究该公司未来五年的自由现金流量。依据两阶段自由现金流量模型估算出索芙特公司的价值。基于此,本文从调整资本结构,提高公司自由现金流量的增长率两方面对索芙特公司的价值管理提出建议。     

基于金融衍生工具组合的财务风险管理

本文将金融衍生工具套期保值这一行为作为一种投资行为。在分析各种金融衍生工具单独使用进行套期保值时带来的操作性非系统风险的基础上,借鉴投资组合的基本理论,使用组合的金融衍生工具套期保值,从而既可以达到单独使用金融衍生工具控制财务风险的目的,又可以在一定程度上降低由于金融市场自身极强的波动性带来的风险,具有一定的现实意义。     

Creating a model of customer equity for chain restaurant brand formation

The purpose of this research was to create and test a model of customer equity for chain restaurant brand formation. It has long been acknowledged that managing and enhancing customer equity influences a company's shareholder value, which is a reflection of long-term financial performance. A review of the current literature revealed three key determinants of customer equity: (1) value equity, (2) brand equity, and (3) relationship equity. Six hypotheses were derived and, based on data analysis, all six were supported. Value, brand, and relationship management were all confirmed to be important factors in enhancing customer equity in the chain restaurant industry. Further, brand equity has the strongest impact on the development of customer equity in this particular industry. Relationships among value equity, brand equity, and relationship equity were also identified. Managerial implications are discussed.     

创新生态系统视角下价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效——一个有调节的中介模型

以创新生态系统为视角,引入创新资源互动与生态系统规范机制为中介变量和调节变量,探究价值共创如何影响企业创新绩效。基于307家企业样本数据,运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap和层级回归方法对数据进行分析。研究发现：创新生态系统中,价值共创不完全直接影响企业创新绩效;创新资源互动部分中介价值共创对企业创新绩效的影响;生态系统规范机制部分正向调节价值共创对创新资源互动的影响。最后提出,创新生态系统调控方与企业要差异化地制定提升创新绩效的实施方案,营造活跃的创新资源互动氛围,形成并完善系统内生态规范机制。     

基于偏度的多期证券投资组合模型研究

在考虑资产收益率分布中正的偏度水平前提下,以风险价值VaR为约束条件,并引入非线性交易费用、税收等市场摩擦因素,建立以累积偏度最大为目标函数的多期投资组合优化模型,用罚函数法和PSO算法结合求解此模型,并给出实证分析。考虑到在买卖资产风险时交易费用等对投资收益的影响,投资者应该在每一期都对其资产组合进行调整分析,确保在每一期的开始都建立起符合需要的最优资产组合,这对投资者的连续投资行为具有一定的指导意义。     

物流业营业税制改革设想

现代物流业作为新兴的第三产业,在我国当前社会经济发展中发挥着越来越重要的支撑和引领作用。然而由于现行税制的不完善,在一定程度上阻碍了我国物流业的进一步发展。本文结合物流企业现行营业税制的相关规定,分析其存在的重复课征、税率不一等阻碍物流业发展的诸多问题,提出为物流业减负的营业税制调整和改革的基本设想。     

美国土地价值捕获制度及其借鉴

在美国,土地价值捕获（value capture）是指将土地的自然增值全部或部分回收归于社会的过程。本文对美国“土地价值捕获”的原理与实现方式进行了分析,总结特点,提出了针对我国土地增值收益分配的借鉴意义。     

城市化过程中的土地增值研究——以长春市为例

采用理论与实证相结合的研究方法,分析城市化过程中土地增值的规律、特点、机理以及与城市空间发展的互动机制.研究结果表明:(1)城市化过程中土地增值表现出一定的客观规律性,且具有整体、独立、辐射、共存和不可逆转等特点;(2)城市土地增值主要有投资、用途转变、供求拉动、政策法规引导等形成机制;(3)城市土地增值与城市空间发展...