“退牧还草”工程在牧户中的响应

“退牧还草”工程是国家在生态建设方面出台的又一重大战略举措。它的实施对保护和改善草原生态环境,促进草原畜牧业可持续发展具有重大的意义。对“退牧还草”工程在牧户中的经济收入、生活水平、生态效果等方面的响应进行了研究,提出加快退牧还草工程建设的5点建议。     

Load profiles and flexibility in operation of washing machines and dishwashers in Europe

While the energy generation system is changing towards the use of more renewable energies, the problem of how to deal with fluctuating energy supply is increasing. Smart appliances in households are often referenced as one possible solution, as their operation may be shifted in time and, thus, used to balance an unstable energy supply. The potential of such appliances has been studied to date mainly in pilot installations with a very limited number of participants or by making assumptions on what might be possible. With this work, a semi‐representative approach for 12 European countries was used to assess actual consumer habits for the use of washing machines and dishwashers which then could be used to calculate average load profiles for those appliances depending on the time of the day. Using these profiles, it is strait forward to calculate how much load may be shifted by those appliances in a demand response application. This allows aggregators or energy utilities to assign clear financial benefits to the shifting potential of those appliances. Consumers use the shifting of appliance operation already today for various reasons. Investigating these reasons allows to learn already a lot about the flexibility of consumers.     

The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

新兴产业对经济发展的时变性影响——来自京津冀地区的经验分析

本文建立了带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-VAR）,以京津冀地区为研究对象,分析了不同时期新兴产业发展对地区生产总值、财政收入以及就业的影响。研究结果发现：（1）新常态时期新兴产业的发展对京津冀经济状况的影响程度大于在全球经济危机时期和经济高速发展时期的影响程度,但在大部分时期新兴产业的发展都只会对京津冀的经济状况产生负向效应;（2）如果经济增长是首要经济目标,天津应该加强新兴产业的发展,如果就业是首要经济目标,河北应该加强新兴产业的发展。     

Fuzzy Rasch model in TOPSIS: A new approach for generating fuzzy numbers to assess the competitiveness of the tourism industries in Asian countries

This study proposes a novel approach, the Fuzzy Rasch model, which combines Item Response Theory (IRT) and fuzzy set theory. This paper applies the Fuzzy Rasch model in Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to analyse the Tourism Destination Competitiveness (TDC) of nine Asian countries: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines. The study was conducted in 2009 using 6 criteria and 15 indices. The results demonstrate the feasibility of applying the Fuzzy Rasch model in TOPSIS to analyse TDC in Asian countries. In addition, the proposed model also provides an effective means of applying the MCDM method to study TDC. Furthermore, in 2009, the Asian countries were ranked from most to least competitive as follows: China, Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea and the Philippines.     

倒边盖挖逆作法基坑支护结构可靠性分析

为了解决采用标准Monte Carlo法计算复杂基坑工程上常见小概率失效,导致计算效率低的问题,以南京市湖南路地下商业街工程为工程背景,首先,将随机响应面法与基坑工程三维模型相结合,求解极限功能函数的响应面方程,并用标准Monte Carlo法计算失效概率和可靠指标,探讨采用倒边盖挖逆作法作为基坑支护结构施工方法的可行性;其次,基于该响应面方程,以土体的弹性模量为随机变量参数,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗子集模拟法(MCMC子集模拟法)计算基坑支护结构的失效概率,并与标准Monte Carlo法结果进行对比分析。结果表明：当支护结构最大侧移控制指标为25 mm时,计算得到的可靠指标均大于4.6,即采用倒边盖挖逆作法施工过程中基坑是安全的;10万次和50万次标准Monte Carlo法计算得到的失效概率均为零,说明对于标准Monte Carlo法,在计算小概率失效问题时10万与50万的样本量是不足的;而MCMC子集模拟法用2.98万个样本计算出的结果与标准Monte Carlo法采用100万个样本计算的结果相对误差仅为1.7%,表明MCMC子集模拟法对于小概率失效问题求解的优势。所提算法在一定...     

福建省服务业FDI对服务贸易影响的实证研究

通过构建VAR模型,并运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等分析方法,对福建省2000-2012年服务业实际利用FDI与服务贸易之间的长期动态关系进行了实证研究.结果显示:在短期内,服务业FDI与服务出口存在互补关系,与服务进口存在替代关系;长期来看,服务业FDI与服务进出口的关系不稳定.最后根据结论给出一些政策建议.     

新阶段中国商品对俄出口研究

中国俄罗斯年开启了中俄交流的大幕。在这个时期,中国加大商品出口,平衡对俄贸易逆差已不容忽视。中国商品在俄罗斯市场具有明显的竞争优势,应借助俄罗斯中国年活动平台,促进相互了解和发展,优化产品出口结构,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场。     

National response strategies and marketing innovations during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, different nations have adopted a variety of response strategies to fight and contain the new coronavirus. Such national response strategies can be classified into three categories based on their underlying philosophy: strict control with unlimited resources, relentless contribution with limited resources, and rough rationality with limited resources. We discuss the philosophies, characteristics, and performances of the three response strategies and when they should be adopted. We also examine what marketing innovation strategies enterprises should adopt to survive and grow their businesses in both the short and long term. This study provides important strategic implications for national policymakers and enterprises on the use of response strategies as well as marketing innovation tactics and strategies to be used both during and after the pandemic.     

工作场所越轨行为的形态、员工反应与组织对策

工作场所越轨行为是指组织成员有意采取的针对其他组织成员或组织财物的违反组织重要主流规范的行为。本文旨在探讨当前工作场所越轨行为的形态特征、员工的反应以及工作场所越轨行为与组织对策间的关系。通过对580名员工的问卷调查,研究发现:(1)生产型过失、损公肥私与合作破坏行为是最常见的工作场所越轨行为类型;(2)员工最不能容忍的是违法行为与合作破坏行为;(3)视情形而定与沉默是员工较可能采取的对工作场所越轨行为的反应方式;(4)曝光与存档有利于防控生产型过失、损公肥私与合作破坏行为,定向引导有助于防控违法行为。