Integrating fundamental model uncertainty in policy analysis: A Bayesian averaging approach combining CGE-models with metamodeling techniques

Sustainable economic development in the future is driven by public policy on regional, national and global levels. Therefore a comprehensive policy analysis is needed that provides consistent and effective policy support. However, a general problem facing classical policy analysis is model uncertainty. All actors, those involved in the policy choice and those in the policy analysis, are fundamentally uncertain which of the different models corresponds to the true generative mechanism that represents the natural, economic, or social phenomena on which policy analysis is focused. In this paper, we propose a general framework that explicitly incorporates model uncertainty into the derivation of a policy choice. Incorporating model uncertainty into the analysis is limited by the very high required computational effort. In this regard, we apply metamodeling techniques as a way to reduce computational complexity. We demonstrate the effect of different metamodel types using a reduced model for the case of CAADP in Senegal. Furthermore, we explicitly show that ignoring model uncertainty leads to inefficient policy choices and results in a large waste of public resources.     

Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era

This paper assesses the effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomy and the euro area banking sector after the global financial crisis. First, financial risk-return indicators of the banking sector based on a compound option-based structural credit risk model are embedded in a large macro-financial quarterly database covering the period 2008Q4–2019Q4. Second, a SFAVAR identifies and estimates the shocks’ responses relating them to the endogenous build-up of banks’ vulnerabilities which are consistent with the internally coherent structure of the credit risk model. By introducing structure in the understanding of banks’ asset-liability management behavior following monetary policy shocks, the research strategy contributes to disentangling results that are often mixed in the empirical literature. The study finds that unconventional monetary policy, in particular the Asset Purchase Program of the European Central Bank, seems to have been more successful than conventional monetary policy in raising output and inflation. The desired boost to bank lending has been muted and loan cyclicality has varied across countries and loan types. The performance of the banking sector following monetary policy shocks can be characterized by a drop in expected return on equity and assets, a relaxation of lending conditions and increased correlation between banks’ assets return and the market return, a mechanism pointing to enhanced risk-taking. While banks’ probabilities of default fall following monetary policy shocks, the price of risk increases. Banks’ net worth rises via higher market capitalization and implied assets value together with lower volatility, despite often incurring more debt. Risk-taking in the banking sector may pose a risk to financial stability, especially if its effects on banks’ vulnerability spread and increase systemic risk. The unintended endogenous build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may need to become part of monetary policymaking.     

Financial risks,monetary policy in the QE era,and regulation

At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.     

中国企业创新为何重数量而轻质量——数量增长目标考核视角

数量增长目标考核是中国创新政策的重要特色。由于政策实施过程中普遍存在信息问题和机会主义，数量增长目标考核会引发微观创新主体的适用性策略行为。文章通过手工搜集和匹配上市公司专利数据，建立双重差分模型，尝试从专利数量增长目标考核视角，考察中国2010年实施的《全国专利事业发展战略（2011-2020年）》这一重大创新战略对企业创新行为的影响，发现该战略对企业专利数量增长具有显著的促进作用，而对专利质量提升具有抑制效应，表明专利数量增长的目标考核会导致企业"重数量、轻质量"的专利申请行为。异质性分析的结果表明，民营企业以及创新能力偏低的企业更倾向于采取"重数量、轻质量"的专利申请行为。进一步，该战略主要通过财政补贴、税收优惠和信贷扶持等政策措施引导企业专利申请行为。这些结论为引导中国企业高质量创新行为的政策目标设计、政策工具选择及分类精准施策提供了有益启发。     

Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries

As a factor of production, human capital is defined both in its health and educational dimensions, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects. Using a panel of 141 countries (93 developing and 48 developed), we attempt to explore and compare the impact of human capital on economic growth at different development stages. For our estimation, we employ the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SGMM) for the period 1980–2008. Our findings reveal that all aspects of human capital positively influence growth in developing countries, especially life expectancy gain, which may be explained by the demographic transition these countries are going through. However, the scenario is different for developed countries, where increased life expectancy posits a drag on economic growth, probably because of the increasingly aging population and dependency ratio. Only when life expectancy is omitted does health expenditure, along with other educational measures of human capital, help sustain growth in developed countries.     

Quantitative easing and credit rating agencies

This paper investigates the behaviour of credit rating agencies (CRAs) using a natural experiment in monetary policy. We exploit the corporate QE of the Eurosystem and its rating-based specific design which generates exogenous variation in the probability for a bond of becoming eligible for outright purchases. We show that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design. Our findings contribute to better assessing the consequences of the explicit reliance on CRAs ratings by central banks when designing monetary policy.     

Bank loans during the 2008 quantitative easing

We examine the effect of quantitative easing on the supply of bank loans. During the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, lending banks reduced relatively more loan spreads, offered longer loan maturities, provided larger loans, and loosened more covenants for firms whose long-term bond ratings were below BBB and were lower than those with investment-grade bond ratings. Furthermore, we find that new bank loans in this period were associated with a reduction in a firm’s value and an increase in default risk. These results indicate that banks took greater risk during the 2008 quantitative easing by relaxing lending standards to relatively riskier borrowers.