量化宽松政策影响中国房产泡沫传导机制研究(英文)

美联储在2010年11月4日实施了第二轮量化宽松政策,这使得中国境内货币流动性大大增加。激增的美元数量给人民币升值带来了巨大压力。本文基于对后续连锁效应的分析,探索并总结了其影响中国房价泡沫的可能传到机制。最后给出了相关政策建议。     

The quantitative turn in the history of economics: promises,perils and challenges

ABSTRACT

A quantitative turn in history of economic thought is looming. We argue that engineering it consciously is of crucial importance for historians of economics. We also highlight the limitations of quantitative techniques. Yet, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research could substantially enrich our narratives of the development of economics and its practice, of how ideas and tools disseminate and influence other spheres. A failed quantitative turn could lead our field to a house divided and, in the worst case, a civil war.     

SYBR Green Ⅰ荧光定量PCR鉴定简单异尖线虫方法的建立

根据GenBank发表的简单异尖线虫保守的ITS-2基因序列设计一对引物,用以扩增简单异尖线虫114 bp基因片段。用简单异尖线虫的重组质粒（AS-ITS-pGM）为模板建立SYBR Green I荧光定量PCR检测简单异尖线虫的方法,并用该方法对经PCR-RFLP鉴定为简单异尖线虫的样品进行鉴定。结果表明,本研究建立的简单异尖线虫SYBR Green I荧光定量PCR方法特异性强、敏感性高,稳定性好,可用于简单异尖线虫的鉴定。     

危机管理中美联储货币政策工具创新对我国的启示

为缓解本次危机对金融市场和实体经济的冲击,以美联储为代表的各主要央行推出大量以信贷宽松或数量宽松为特点的非常规货币政策,对危机中受损的常规货币政策传导渠道进行弥补,加强了各国央行的合作力度,有效缓解了危机带来的负面冲击。本文将集中研究美联储的货币政策工具的特点、效果,并总结对我国的启示,这也将有助于我国深入理解美联储即将采用的第二轮量化宽松货币政策的本质。     

我国企业年金计划模式选择

针对我国目前的国情现状和企业年金计划的发展阶段,在企业年金计划的基金积累和支付、运营、税制优惠、监管四个环节,分别采用兼容收益确定型和缴费确定型优势的模式、信托基金型模式、EET税制模式、定量限制型模式,才能从根本上促进我国企业年金计划的顺畅运行,使其真正成为我国养老金计划的＂第二支柱＂。     

Locating the competitive relation of global logistics hub using quantitative SWOT analytical method

Evaluating the competitive position of location develops global logistics hub (GLH) is a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem and it is important for governor to implement suitable strategies appropriate its environment. SWOT analysis is very important in the process of strategic formulation. Under many conditions, the evaluative criteria (indicators) are mixed with quantitative/qualitative values and the values for qualitative criteria are often imprecisely defined for decision-makers. A quantified SWOT analytical method, that integrates the method of fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, was proposed to provide more detailed and quantified data for SWOT environmental analysis to assess the competitive relation for locations develop different types’ GLH in Pacific–Asian region. Integrating the concept of Grand Strategy Matrix (GSM), a suitable competing strategy could be suggested for location developing GLH in accordance with its competitive position.     

客家乡村旅游发展时空演变及其动力机制研究

[目的]以客家核心区梅州市为例,探讨客家乡村旅游时空演变及其动力机制,以其为客家乡村旅游开发提供理论支持。[方法]运用计量地理法和GIS空间分析技术,从时间与空间两个维度上对客家乡村旅游时空演变及其动力机制进行分析。[结果]结果表明:时间维度上,客家乡村旅游发展阶段性特征鲜明,经历了萌芽、兴起和蓬勃发展3个阶段。空间维度上,客家乡村旅游点空间分布类型由均匀型向凝聚型演变,并呈集中分布,且随着时间的推移,集中程度呈现逐渐增大趋势。在此基础上探讨了影响客家乡村旅游时空演变的动力机制,其主要来源于外生和内生动力两方面;外生动力包括市场驱动力、政策驱动力和交通驱动力,内生动力包括资源驱动力、品牌驱动力和村落拯救驱动力。针对研究结果对客家乡村旅游发展从市场挖掘、政府支持和保护性开发等方面提出了相应的启示性建议。[结论]客家乡村旅游发展迅速,对其时空演变特征及动力机制的深入认识有利于进一步做好客家乡村旅游开发,促进客家乡村振兴。     

Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy

Unconventional approaches to suit unusual circumstances have become acceptable in monetary policy, a formerly highly conservative discipline. In this paper it is argued that unconventional approaches should also be considered in sovereign debt management, in order to contribute to resolving the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. First, the Troika crisis lending to indebted sovereign borrowers in the eurozone is reviewed and compared with standard IMF post-crisis lending. The main difference and shortcoming is the unsustainable character of the eurozone approach, due to the omission of demand stimulation components. To address this and other shortcomings, the features of an ideal alternative funding tool are identified. It would solve the funding problems of affected sovereigns, help stabilise the banking system, but most of all stimulate domestic demand and hence end the vicious downward spiral. It is found that this funding method can be implemented as part of enhanced public debt management by each nation's debt management office.     

Quantitative easing and default probability of corporate social responsibility in US

The US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) policies lowered the cost of servicing corporate debt and enhanced firms’ ability to borrow. This article seeks to improve the accuracy of default probability calculations as proposed by Merton (1974) under conditions of lower interest rates resulting from QE. By modifying the long-term debt ratio, we find distance to default is undervalued. Specifically, we find that the distance to default is more stably for firms with excellent corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance, but those with poor CSR performance are significantly undervalued. Our results show that improved CSR performance correctly estimates the firm’s default risk, even during QE when the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded by nearly $4.5 trillion.     

The “Cambridge” critique of the quantity theory of money: A note on how quantitative easing vindicates it

Through quantitative easing markets have been flooded with liquidity, but rather than inflation we have witnessed a general deflation because of the liquidity trap environment in which the banking system operated; this article revisits the arguments against the quantity theory in the “Cambridge” tradition of John Maynard Keynes, Richard Kahn, and Nicholas Kaldor, and defends their soundness and topicality.