The quantitative turn in the history of economics: promises,perils and challenges

ABSTRACT

A quantitative turn in history of economic thought is looming. We argue that engineering it consciously is of crucial importance for historians of economics. We also highlight the limitations of quantitative techniques. Yet, the combination of qualitative and quantitative research could substantially enrich our narratives of the development of economics and its practice, of how ideas and tools disseminate and influence other spheres. A failed quantitative turn could lead our field to a house divided and, in the worst case, a civil war.     

SYBR Green Ⅰ荧光定量PCR鉴定简单异尖线虫方法的建立

根据GenBank发表的简单异尖线虫保守的ITS-2基因序列设计一对引物,用以扩增简单异尖线虫114 bp基因片段。用简单异尖线虫的重组质粒（AS-ITS-pGM）为模板建立SYBR Green I荧光定量PCR检测简单异尖线虫的方法,并用该方法对经PCR-RFLP鉴定为简单异尖线虫的样品进行鉴定。结果表明,本研究建立的简单异尖线虫SYBR Green I荧光定量PCR方法特异性强、敏感性高,稳定性好,可用于简单异尖线虫的鉴定。     

危机管理中美联储货币政策工具创新对我国的启示

为缓解本次危机对金融市场和实体经济的冲击,以美联储为代表的各主要央行推出大量以信贷宽松或数量宽松为特点的非常规货币政策,对危机中受损的常规货币政策传导渠道进行弥补,加强了各国央行的合作力度,有效缓解了危机带来的负面冲击。本文将集中研究美联储的货币政策工具的特点、效果,并总结对我国的启示,这也将有助于我国深入理解美联储即将采用的第二轮量化宽松货币政策的本质。     

Locating the competitive relation of global logistics hub using quantitative SWOT analytical method

Evaluating the competitive position of location develops global logistics hub (GLH) is a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem and it is important for governor to implement suitable strategies appropriate its environment. SWOT analysis is very important in the process of strategic formulation. Under many conditions, the evaluative criteria (indicators) are mixed with quantitative/qualitative values and the values for qualitative criteria are often imprecisely defined for decision-makers. A quantified SWOT analytical method, that integrates the method of fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, was proposed to provide more detailed and quantified data for SWOT environmental analysis to assess the competitive relation for locations develop different types’ GLH in Pacific–Asian region. Integrating the concept of Grand Strategy Matrix (GSM), a suitable competing strategy could be suggested for location developing GLH in accordance with its competitive position.     

宏观经济调控执行绩效的一个数量评价:1985～2005年

有效实施宏观经济调控是各国政府的一个中心职能,其目的在于熨平经济周期波动,维持经济总量大体平衡,从而为市场有效配置资源,实现经济的长期增长创造有利条件。客观评价宏观经济调控的执行绩效有助于政策当局反思政策制定过程中的不适当行为,不断改进宏观经济管理水平,从而更好地实现政策目标。在本文中,我们忽略宏观经济调控政策的内部构成,视其为一个整体,基于政策当局的损失函数,设计了一个新的模型框架,对宏观经济调控执行绩效进行数量评价。     

Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing

We estimate a macro-finance yield curve model for both the nominal and real forward curve for the UK from 1993 to 2008. Our model is able to accommodate a number of key macroeconomic variables and allows us to estimate the instantaneous response of the yield curve and so gauge the impact of Quantitative Easing on forward rates. We find that 10 year nominal interest rates on average are lower by 46 basis points which can largely be explained by three main channels: portfolio balance; liquidity premium and signalling but there is no sizeable impact on real interest rates.     

Quantitative easing and default probability of corporate social responsibility in US

The US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) policies lowered the cost of servicing corporate debt and enhanced firms’ ability to borrow. This article seeks to improve the accuracy of default probability calculations as proposed by Merton (1974) under conditions of lower interest rates resulting from QE. By modifying the long-term debt ratio, we find distance to default is undervalued. Specifically, we find that the distance to default is more stably for firms with excellent corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance, but those with poor CSR performance are significantly undervalued. Our results show that improved CSR performance correctly estimates the firm’s default risk, even during QE when the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded by nearly $4.5 trillion.     

The “Cambridge” critique of the quantity theory of money: A note on how quantitative easing vindicates it

Through quantitative easing markets have been flooded with liquidity, but rather than inflation we have witnessed a general deflation because of the liquidity trap environment in which the banking system operated; this article revisits the arguments against the quantity theory in the “Cambridge” tradition of John Maynard Keynes, Richard Kahn, and Nicholas Kaldor, and defends their soundness and topicality.     

Qualitative input-output analysis and structural information

The authors first introduce a slightly modified version of the quantitative theory of pull effects. After a short presentation of the basic ideas of qualitative input-output analysis with the aid of matrices, the qualitative goals of ‘completeness’ and ‘velocity’ are defined. The article ends with an investigation of the compatibility of these qualitative goals with the usual quantitative economic goals.