Relationship between city size and firm productivity – A new interpretation using the Chinese experience

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between city size and firm productivity by focusing on agglomeration, selection (market competition), and sorting (presence of firms with diverse productivity) effects using Chinese firm-level data for 1998–2013. Contrary to the existing literature, our parametric regression estimates from nearly two million firms show that when the selection effect is controlled, productivity advantage in big cities is reversed. This outcome is explained through a quantile regression showing the existence of left-sided sorting (inefficient firms sort themselves to larger cities) in big cities which is not captured in existing empirical literature. We further find that (1) left-sided sorting is stronger in exporters than non-exporters; (2) is also generated mainly in enterprises with high asset-liability ratios; and (3) selection has a positive effect on firm productivity, suggesting that market competition is key in an explanation of the rapid growth of big cities in China.     

TFP growth in Chinese cities: The role of factor-intensity and industrial agglomeration

This article estimates agglomeration effects via calculating EG (Elilsion & Glaeser) and TFP growth (Total Factor Production) by considering the undesired output of the industrial enterprise database and the entropy weight method. Using panel data of 207 county-level cities in China and 28 two-digit manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2013 based on SIC codes, this paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration and TFP growth through the smooth transition model under different regions and factor-intensity. The results are as follows. (1) A negative relationship appears in manufacturing productivity. The agglomeration effect changes to the crowded effect. Environmental pollution is also generated by transportation and inadequate pollution treatment technology. (2) The excessive agglomeration phenomenon of developed areas (eastern region) is less than the less developed areas (central and western regions). (3) Resource-intensity industries present two thresholds that indicate complex regional features. For various intensive industries in different regions, the relationship between GML and agglomeration is different. High agglomeration does not always promote TFP growth. (4) At different levels of urban industrial agglomeration, the influences of efficiency change and technical change on GML are different. Overall, moderate agglomeration in all regions helps promote economic development.     

I (Could Have) Told You! Early warning indicators and crisis performance of the 12 “old” Euro-countries under the economic crisis 2008–09

The impact of the economic crisis 2008-09 was remarkably different in the 12 “old” member states in the Euro-zone. Five of them were hit especially badly; four of them even had to be bailed out by the rest in one way or another. This paper asks if one could have foretold, based solely on information available prior to 1999, which of the countries then about to enter the Euro-zone would run into economic trouble once a serious economic crisis occurred. The focus is on the (post)predictive power of three kinds of leading indicators: economic indicators, political indicators (indicating quality of governance), and indicators derived from the theory of optimal currency areas (OCA). Since there are more indicators than cases, PLS-regression is used to gauge the (post)predictive strength of the indicators examined. The results show that political indicators have quite some (post)predictive power in this case, whereas indicators derived from OCA-theory do not do too well. Economic indicators perform better than indicators derived from OCA-theory, but generally less well than the political indicators. Thus, the experience from the latest economic crisis in the Euro-zone suggests that more emphasis should be placed on the quality of governance record of a country when deciding if it should be deemed fit to become a member.     

Lottery mindset,mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the MAX effect regarding lottery mindset in the Chinese stock market. The MAX effect significantly affects stock returns through quintile portfolio and cross-sectional regression analyses. The most-overpriced stock groups, as categorized by mispricing index, show more support for the MAX effect. However, the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) effect continues regardless of consideration for the MAX effect, indicating that the MAX effect is not a source of the IVOL effect. Our results suggest that the MAX effect, which is highly relevant for overpriced stocks, might have information for determining stock price, and appears to be independent from information of the IVOL effect in the Chinese stock market.     

The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy

How and under what circumstances can adjusting the inflation target serve as a stabilization-policy tool and contribute to welfare improvement? We answer these questions quantitatively with a standard New Keynesian model that includes cost-push-type shocks. Our proposed inflation target rule calls for the target to be adjusted in a persistent manner and in the opposite direction to the realization of a cost-push shock, which is essentially a makeup strategy. The inflation target rule, combined with a Taylor-type rule, significantly reduces inflation fluctuations originating from cost-push shocks and mitigates the stabilization trade-off, resulting in a similar level of welfare to that associated with the Ramsey optimal policy.     

Agglomeration economies and university program creation in the knowledge economy

Existing academic literature on the relationship between agglomeration economies and university activities is both under-theorized and relatively sparse in terms of empirical examination. This paper addresses each of these voids by contributing and analyzing a market model of pro-revenue education program creation such as graduate-level executive business education (e.g. EMBA) that reveals some intriguing characteristics. For instance, it shows that demand for these pro-revenue programs is inelastic and therefore uniquely determines their availability. More specifically, we show that through agglomeration economies these types of education programs are more likely to emanate from universities located in metropolitan areas and from less academically prestigious universities. Regression analysis of a cross-section of national public universities lends support to important facets of our formal model by suggesting that agglomeration economies continue to increase the probability of offering EMBA programs through a city size of approximately 2.12 million and that the probability that a given business school will offer an EMBA is negatively related to the academic prestige of the institution to which it is affiliated.     

PERSONALITY TRAITS AND THE PERCEPTION OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: SURVEY EVIDENCE

I examine the determinants of both perceived inflation and unemployment in one single survey and include Big Five traits in the analysis. This is the first survey on this topic in Germany. My sample consists of 1771 students from different fields and levels. Using PhD students’ estimates as a reference, I create categories for underestimation and overestimation of both variables. Multinomial logit regressions show that females overestimate both variables. Education and news consumption reduce misestimation. A higher level of Neuroticism is related with a higher probability to overestimate unemployment. Overstating (understating) one indicator is associated with overstating (understating) the other.     

The welfare effect of a free trade agreement in the presence of foreign direct investment and rules of origin

This paper investigates the welfare effect of forming a free trade agreement (FTA). To receive tariff‐free treatment, firms must comply with the rules of origin (ROO). Outside firms could undertake either market‐oriented or export‐platform foreign direct investments (FDIs). ROO have the following effects: (i) An infeasible FTA may become feasible by deterring outside firms' FDIs, (ii) an FDI of a less efficient firm could replace that of an efficient firm, or (iii) FDIs made before the FTA is concluded might be eliminated. These potential effects complicate the welfare effect of the FTA and could decrease the consumer surplus.     

The effect of firm-level productivity on exchange rate pass-through

A heterogeneous-firm trade model can explain the recent decrease in exchange rate pass-through to aggregate US import prices as a result of decreased trade costs. This paper finds support for this explanation by testing another implication of this type of heterogeneous firm model: lower exchange rate pass-through for goods that are traded for short periods of time.     

Bribery,corruption and bureaucratic hassle: Evidence from Myanmar

Corruption has been found to be the most severe obstacle to business operations, according to a recent survey of over 3000 firms in Myanmar. This paper sets out to understand the structure of corruption through an econometric analysis of this survey. It finds that firms with higher ‘ability to pay’ (proxied by sales revenue and employee growth) are more likely to pay bribes. While firms with lower ‘refusal power’ (i.e. those dependent on bureaucratic permissions to export and import) are more likely to find corruption to be an obstacle. A distinct but related question is whether bribes act as ‘efficiency grease’ by allowing firms to circumvent red tape. No evidence is found to support this hypothesis; in fact, firms that pay bribes report greater bureaucratic hassle compared to firms that do not. This result fits in more closely with the view that red tape could be used to extract bribes from firms.