DYNAMIC CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURNS AND EXCHANGE RATE AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON THE CONDITIONAL VOLATILITIES – THE CASE OF SEVERAL EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The objective of the paper is to determine whether the linkage between stock returns and exchange rates in several Eastern European countries was in accordance with the flow oriented model or the portfolio‐balance approach. The dynamic interdependence between exchange rate and stock returns is determined using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) framework. The results pointed to a negative dynamic correlation which is in line with portfolio‐balance approach. Rolling regression revealed that conditional correlation was affected primarily by conditional volatility of currency, while the impact of stock returns volatility was negligible.     

Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks' stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience

This paper examines whether American banks' exposure to the oil industry could lead to instability in both oil and financial markets. To address this issue, we investigate volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of the four major American banks involved in the oil industry by employing the vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average framework. We use high-frequency data from January 3, 2006, to June 30, 2016. Our results support the existence of such volatility spillovers, as evidenced by the significant volatility responses of oil price (banks' stock price) to a shock in banks' stock price (oil price). These responses, more pronounced following the banks' exposure to the shale industry, mainly reflect the financial fragility of shale companies and their high indebtedness levels. Thus, this paper emphasises how the shale oil industry could trigger turmoil in both oil and financial markets.     

The role of social and technical excludability for the success of impure public good and common pool agreements: The case of international fisheries

We argue that international fisheries are a prime example to study the incentive structure of forming impure public good and common pool agreements. We consider a fully integrated multiple zone model, in which zones are linked through density-dependent migration. The incentive to accede to Regional Fishery Management Organizations (RFMOs) is related to multiple characteristics. Firstly, the relative patch sizes of the high seas, which is the internationally (publicly) accessible domain, compared to exclusive economic zones, which are state-owned (privately owned). This can be related to the degree of socially constructed excludability. Secondly, the intensity of fish migration between various zones, which can be related to the degree of technical excludability. Thirdly, the growth rate of the resource, which can be interpreted as the degree of rivalry, with a low (high) degree of rivalry approximating public good (common pool) features. We show that, generally, excludability reduces free-riding incentives but also the need for cooperation, a variant of the “paradox of cooperation”. Moreover, we show that the benefit-cost duality between public goods and common pool resources generally holds except for some extreme parameter values for which a low degree of rivalry fosters the success of cooperation. Finally, through a variation of the diffusion matrix, we can also analyze a closed as well as a sink-source system.     

股权分置改革对价谈判博弈分析

中国证券市场股权分置改革是一个系统工程，对价谈判博弈不仅仅包含讨价还价博弈，还包括上市公司股价估值，上市公司的行业背景和成长性分析，上市公司的股权结构特点分析等，是一个非常复杂的博弈模型。本文通过分析股权分置改革对价谈判的博弈过程给出了一个在完全信息条件下对价谈判的非合作博弈模型及其纳什（Nash）均衡最优解的求解过程．并详细分析了影响对价最终结果的关键因素和得到纳什均衡最优解的泽森（Zeuthen）讨价还价过程，供股权分置改革方案的设计者和广大投资人参考。     

Asymmetric downside and upside co-movements between stock and REIT markets

This article aims to investigate whether stock and real estate investment trust (REIT) returns have asymmetric downside and upside co-movements. The investigation is carried out by employing a mixture copula with Markov-switching coefficients for weight, upper tail dependence and lower tail dependence. Empirical result demonstrates that an asymptotic independence and a positive relationship, which has greater dependence in the left tail than in the right tail, coexist. The empirical result provides useful information for making portfolio decisions. In the independent state, the inclusion of stock and REIT indices in a portfolio builds a diversified portfolio. However, a portfolio with stock and REIT assets cannot get the benefit of risk reduction in the positive dependence state.     

安徽省上市公司股票分形特征研究

安徽省上市公司股票的非线性特征的定量检验表明,安徽省上市公司的股票收益率不服从正态分布,股票市场不属于有效市场。运用R/S分析方法可以看出,安徽省上市公司股票收益率呈现尖峰胖尾态势,且具有持续性,存在长期记忆的分形特征。     

股指期货推出后中国金融业面临的挑战及其对策

随着股指期货的推出,中国金融业将面临四个方面的挑战:一是金融市场结构将发生巨大变化,市场风险增加;二是为金融机构带来新的业务机会,也给金融监管带来新的课题;三是金融机构的风险管理能力面临考验;四是投资者的投资理念、分析能力和风险承受能力都将面临挑战。应对挑战的对策:一是采取“混业经营“加“分业监管“的金融业发展模式;二是加强金融立法,改进金融监管;三是采取多种形式应对国际化挑战;四是发展多层次资本市场体系。