Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model

A vector autoregressive model for I(2) processes which allows for trend-stationary components and restricts the deterministic part of the process to be at most linear is defined. A two-step statistical analysis of the model is derived. The joint test of I(1) and I(2) cointegrating ranks is shown to be asymptotically similar with respect to the drift terms and the asymptotic distribution is tabulated. The cointegrating parameters are shown to be mixed Gaussian and an application for UK monetary data illustrates the proposed analysis.     

A unified approach to nonparametric trend tests for dependent and independent samples

We consider testing nonparametric hypotheses against ordered alternatives and propose a new unified approach for dependent and independent samples and factorial designs. The new approach allows for arbitrary underlying distributions, including quantitative and discrete ordinal (ordered categorical), or even binary data. It is compared to procedures available in the literature and applied to different data examples. The new method is not only invariant under monotone transformations of the response, but also under monotone transformations of the weights describing the alternative pattern.     

Security factors as linear combinations of economic variables

A new framework is proposed to find the best linear combinations of economic variables that optimally forecast security factors. In particular, we obtain such combinations from Chen et al. (Journal of Business 59, 383–403, 1986) five economic variables, and obtain a new GMM test for the APT which is more robust than existing tests. In addition, by using Fama and French's (1993) five factors, we test whether fewer factors are sufficient to explain the average returns on 25 stock portfolios formed on size and book-to-market. While inconclusive in-sample, a three-factor model appears to perform better out-of-sample than both four- and five-factor models.     

顾客资产价值综合评价

本文主要从客户资产价值出发,指出了传统的客户关系管理(CRM)中的一些误区;认为将客户作为企业的资产,其价值大小有异,并进一步提出了评价顾客资产价值的指标体系。在此基础上,本着简单实用的原则,利用秩和比法来比较不同客户的客户资产价值的大小。     

时变秩和时变系数VECM模型与“费雪效应”机制检验

研究目标:检验我国经济是否存在“费雪效应”。研究方法:将马尔科夫区制转换结构应用于对协整秩的建模,同时考虑协整参数的时变,构建时变秩和时变系数VECM模型,使用贝叶斯框架估计模型参数。研究发现：1992年1月～2016年3月间我国名义利率与通货膨胀率之间存在时变系数VECM模型与I(1)数据时变系数VAR模型两种区制的转换,我国名义利率和通货膨胀率之间主要表现为时变协整关系。估计的归一化协整向量表明,整个样本期间我国存在“费雪效应”占优;经济“新常态”时期,不存在“费雪效应”处于主导地位;2015年7月以来我国存在时变弱的“费雪效应”。研究创新：将马尔科夫区制转换结构应用于对协整秩的建模,构建时变秩和时变系数VECM模型。研究价值：有助于重新认识“费雪效应之谜”。     

Non-parametric momentum based on ranks and signs

This study proposes alternative momentum strategies built on the rank and sign of daily returns. Rank and sign momentum strategies are robust to the presence of extreme price movements. They generate significant profits for short-term holding periods and exhibit no long-term return reversals. More importantly, they subsume traditional price momentum, but not vice versa. In addition, rank and sign momentum strategies experience much weaker momentum crashes. Further evidence indicates that rank and sign momentum profitability is less vulnerable to salient past returns while traditional price momentum winners (losers) tend to be overvalued (undervalued) when they face a higher degree of salience.     

Stepwise ordinal efficiency for the random assignment problem

We introduce a notion of efficiency, called Stepwise Ordinal Efficiency (SOE), and prove that it coincides with a fairness notion of interim favoring ranks, in the sense of Harless (2018). We also prove that SOE implies ordinal efficiency, while it is not compatible with rank efficiency. Then, we provide an impossibility result which states that no mechanism meets SOE, weak strategy-proof, and strong equal treatment of equals. Finally, we show that a modified eating algorithm satisfies SOE.     

Hierarchical thinking and learning in rank order contests

We analyze a class of coordination games in which the Kth player to submit an entry wins a contest. These games have an infinite number of symmetric equilibria and the set of equilibria does not change with K. We run experiments with 15 participants and with K=3, 7, and 11. Our experiments show that the value of K affects initial submissions and convergence to equilibrium. When K is small relative to the number of participants, our experiments show that repeated play converges to or near zero. When K is large, an equilibrium is often not reached as a result of repeated play. We seek explanations to these patterns in hierarchical thinking and direction learning.      

A stochastic programming model to analyze ordinal preference data

Many marketing situations require analysis of ordinal preference data. Existing analysis methods include OLS, variations of the logit model and methods such as LINMAP. An alternative method is proposed that has the following features: 1) Tie rankings are allowed; 2) all rank order information is incorporated into the estimation — not just first preferences; 3) the procedure is formulated as a L.P. model, which is easily implemented with existing software; 4) statistical inference is supported by the underlying stochastic model; and 5) it supports estimation of individual and group preferences.     

Existence of a Universal Comparative Statics Matrix for Differentiable Optimization Problems

A universal existence theorem is established that yields exhaustive and constraint-free comparative statics information for a general, differentiable optimization problem in the preferred form of a semidefinite matrix. It subsumes all comparative statics formulations of differentiable optimization problems. Its relationship to comparative statics methods extant is establishedWe are grateful to an anonymous referee for a particularly helpful comment on the contents of this paper.