迈向国际化大都市的规划思考——西安城市空间理性增长的实现途径初探

在经济全球化和区域一体化背景下,以大城市为核心的城市地区已经成为一种具有全球竞争和国家战略意义的区域发展模式与空间组合形式.本文通过梳理分析国际化大都市的相关理论研究和技术演变历程,响应国家的战略意图,阐述了中国语境下的西安建设国际化大都市的具体内涵.通过对西安城市空间发展现状特征的分析,基于城市空间理性增长这一主题,...     

基于我国证券市场羊群行为的宏观与微观策略

证券市场的羊群行为是指投资者在证券投资中模仿其他投资者决策,在股票价格波动中追涨杀跌的行为.导致我国证券市场羊群行为的原因包括宏观和微观两个层面.为此,本文从宏观和微观两个层面提出抑制羊群行为的相应策略,即培育市场理性与培育理性投资主体两项对策.具体包括:完善信息披露制度;改善证券市场供求关系;完善合理的交易制度;规范证券公司"信息串联"行为;培育理性投资者等.以此来实现改善上市公司的信息披露质量,促进证券市场效率,以减轻羊群行为之害.     

Are Hodrick-Prescott `forecasts' rational?

We evaluate the usefulness of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter as a proxy for rational expectations, using long runs of annual US inflation data. Our conclusion is that while the HP series are not fully rational in the sense of Muth (1961), they do generally meet the criterion of `weak rationality' recently proposed by Grant and Thomas (1999). They are also rational proxy predictors of direction for, following Merton (1981), agents would not change their prior in the opposite direction to these `forecasts'. However, smoother HP `forecasts' are more prone to inefficiency and less useful predictors of direction. First Version Received: May 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

“一保一控”政策背景下的房地产业发展研究

在未来一段时期,我国经济要实现“一保一控”的宏观调控目标,扩大内需是关键。国际经验表明,每一次的房价大幅度下降,都可能伴随着消费的停滞和经济的衰退。政府的宏观调控,既要有利于避免房价大幅上涨带来泡沫,也要防止房地产市场的过度波动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。因此,防止我国房地产业出现“大落”,应包含在“一保一控”宏调政策的内容之中。     

基于投入产出模型的中日进出口产品结构合理性比较研究

从进出口部门的角度出发,通过构建进出口产品结构的合理性评价机制和评价指标,运用中日两国的投入产出表,对中日两国进出口产品结构的合理性进行分析和比较。结论如下:中国进出口产品结构的合理性要优于日本进出口产品结构的合理性,中国的进口产品合理度指数高于日本的进口产品合理度指数,而出口产品的合理度指数却低于日本。最后分析了产生这些差距的原因,并得出了重要的政策启示。     

对理性模式的反思

在管理过程中,无论是政策的制定者还是政策的执行者无不都在追求理性地做出行动,希望在"理性"的驱使下确保自己能够正确、科学而有效地实现其活动目标,并因此建立起"理性模式"来指导管理活动。但是,人的理性是有限的,因此,在归纳人类理性行为机制基础上而建立起的"理性模式"也是具有一定的局限的,对这些局限进行充分的认识对于管理活动来说意义不可小觑。     

中国农村消费的刺激机制与理性回归

近几年,我国农业与农村基础设施投资不断增加促进了农业生产率的提高,加速了农村产业的转型。现代农业的逐步实施、农村环境的改善和保障体系的初步建成,使得农村消费增长的内在条件基本成熟。然而,刺激农村消费增长必须建立适合中国特色的理性消费机制,促进农民收入稳定增长,理性回归才能更好地保障农村经济可持续发展。     

Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America

The purpose of this study is firstly to test for the existence of periodically collapsing stock price bubbles in Asian and Latin American emerging stock markets for the period 1990–2009. We use the new non-cointegration test developed by Taylor and Peel (1998) with the Residuals-Augmented Least Squares (RALS) method of Im (1996) and Im and Schmidt (2008) for monthly data of price indexes and dividends. The results show that the hypothesis of formation of bubbles cannot be rejected for all of the studied emerging stock markets. This evidence implies that the co-integration relation between the prices and the dividends is not always supported, indicating that the stock prices do not reflect their fundamental values in the emerging stock markets. We then link speculative bubbles with macroeconomic and financial factors, which is an interesting contribution of this study. The degree of equity market openness is found to be the key factor, positively related to the formation of speculative bubbles in these markets.     

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。