湖北省财政科技投入机制创新研究

在借鉴国内外财政科技投入经验的基础上,对湖北财政科技投入结构、财政科技投入方式、财政科技资金分配方式3个方面进行了研究,提出了加快推进湖北财政科技投入机制创新的对策。     

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.

真实经济周期理论评论

不同于凯恩斯等学派的货币产出关系论,真实经济周期理论认为是产出等真实经济决定货币变动而不是相反,货币只是纯粹的面纱。真实经济周期理论关于货币政策作用机制的论述代表了货币政策调控与经济周期关系研究的新进展。这种观点从一种全新的视角为我们打开了思路,对于我国在货币政策调控上应注重需求管理与供给管理政策相结合等颇具启发意义,但其假设前提及其政策无效论与现实不符。     

Interactive data and retail investor decision‐making: an experimental study

The results of an experimental study of retail investors' use of eXtensible Business Reporting Language tagged (interactive) data and PDF format for making investment decisions are reported. The main finding is that data format made no difference to participants' ability to locate and integrate information from statement footnotes to improve investment decisions. Interactive data were perceived by participants as quick and ‘accurate’, but it failed to facilitate the identification of the adjustment needed to make the ratios accurate for comparison. An important implication is that regulators and software designers should work to reduce user reliance on the comparability of ratios generated automatically using interactive data.     

异质性与跨国公司的战略选择

新新贸易理论将公司异质性引入到国际贸易理论中,从微观层面解释了公司国际化的战略选择。但它们通常假定两国是同质的,所以公司国际化的选择仅局限于出IZl贸易和水平型直接投资。本文构建了三国模型,考察了跨国公司的三种战略选择模式。理论研究表明,生产率最高的公司选择水平型直接投资,生产率较高的公司选择出口平台直接投资,生产率较低的公司选择出口贸易,生产率最低的公司只供应国内市场。发达国家的相对工人工资水平越高、发展中国家建厂成本越小,选择出口和水平型直接投资的公司会越少,而选择出口平台的直接投资公司会越多。     

基于不确定性的企业风险投资项目价值评估方法分析

企业风险投资项目伴有巨大的风险,具有高度的不确定性和不可逆性。因此,很难用传统的净现值方法来评估是否对其投资。本文在分析企业项目投资特点的基础上,讨论了随机和模糊不确定性情况下的企业风险投资项目评估方法。     

虚拟经济动态演化机理——耗散结构理论视角

基于耗散结构理论,解析以虚实经济背离比率作为宏观量度在资产价格正反馈增长方式的微观机制作用下,受限于实体经济规模,虚拟经济系统自组织到临界态后,由内外部随机涨落促使虚拟经济系统刺穿临界态导致系统溃塌引发金融危机的动态演化机理,并通过国际数据证实了这一演化逻辑。     

企业海外研发投资的公共区位因子及实证分析

企业在多个国家和地区开展海外研发投资,会受到不同国家与地区的不同区位因子的影响。在简要回顾国内外有关企业海外研发投资区位因子选择的理论与实证分析的基础上,选择了14个相关指标,然后依据由世界银行提供的有关22个国家和地区的样本数据,利用SPSS软件的因子分析方法,对可能影响企业海外研发投资的一些公共区位因子进行了实证分析,并对其结果及给我们的启示进行了阐述。     

Trust and development

In this paper we examine linkages between social trust and economic development using, for the first time, a panel of data. We confirm earlier cross-sectional studies finding that trust is a significant factor in development and also show for the first time that trust significantly interacts with both investment in physical and human capital. We provide a robustness analysis of our results via a set of jackknife experiments on our main equations, and the trust coefficients and interactions are very tightly distributed, indicating that the results are not highly sample dependent. We also consider whether trust directly influences investment and find that in a panel framework it does not unless we allow for a trust–education interaction in the investment equation.     

货币政策对房地产市场冲击效力的动态测度

以货币政策传导渠道为理论依据,通过结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型构造货币政策对房地产市场的作用途径,可测度各种货币政策工具冲击对我国房地产市场供求的相对强度.实证分析结果表明,利率政策的冲击效力明显且持久,是调控房地产市场最有效的货币政策工具;紧缩的信贷政策仅能在短期内抑制房地产市场需求,长期效果欠佳;而货币供给量冲击对房地产市场的影响并不显著.相对于房地产需求,房地产市场供给对各种货币政策工具冲击的响应深度高,但响应速度较慢.