中国银行业不良资产证券化信用风险评价研究

本文首先论述了国际通用的各信用风险模型的适用条件，提出改进的KMV模型作为度量我国不良资产证券化信用风险的模型。同时，提出了计算其违约概率的方法。然后根据我国不良资产的实际情况，建立了一个具有普遍性的模拟的不良资产包，分析其证券化中各个不同发债规模下的信用风险，得出其资产变现收入在对数正态分布下和真实分布中的违约概率，为我国不良资产证券化的风险控制在一定程度上提供了理论依据和技术支持。     

双寡头市场价格博弈分析——以我国国内成品油市场竞争主体为例

用博弈论分析市场行为是经济学的发展方向之一,本文从实证分析国内成品油市场中国石化与中国石油两大寡头的多种博弈情形及其收益变化过程,论证了在市场需求总量基本恒定状态下,双寡头市场价格博弈的纳什均衡解为(降价、降价),(不降价、不降价),前一种均衡解是双方在势均力敌、信息反馈充分的恶性竞争结果,后一种是在满足一定收益前提下的“双赢”策略。企业只有选择有别于竞争对手的非价格歧异性策略,形成自己的特色和优势,才能占领相应的市场,获得相应的经济效益。     

控股股东、实际控制权与小股东权益保护

股权集中型公司是现代公司的主流组织形态之一,其代理成本主要产生于控股股东与小股东之间存在的利益冲突.通过发行多种类股票、交叉持股和金字塔式控股等方式,控股股东能够获取比与其股权份额相对应的名义控制权更大的实际控制权,因而更容易发生以侵害小股东权益作代价追求控制权私下收益的道德风险行为,致使代理成本高昂.声誉机制和法律手段能够迫使控股股东收敛侵占行为,且法律手段较声誉机制更为有效.在中国,声誉机制对控股股东基本不起作用,保护小股东权益的最为有效的措施是完善相关立法并加大执法力度.     

我国传统典权制度的存废之辨

典权制度是我国特有的一项古老制度,与其它类似制度相比,其融资安全性更高,能够对社会资源进行更有效的利用,满足融资者保留不动产所有权的愿望,并在保护弱者、平衡各方利益上具有得天独厚的优势。在充分认识典权制度内涵及价值的基础上,可以发现典权是一种具有独特作用的特殊他物权,应在立法中作出使其独立于用益物权和担保物权的规定,并在我国民事立法中科学地确立典权制度。     

Existence of Equilibria in Matching Models of Money: A New Technique

This paper develops a new technique for proving the existence and indeterminacy of monetary equilibria in money search models with divisible money. Our technique is substantially simpler than standard constructive proofs in the literature. This paper is based on the second half of Kamiya and Shimizu (2002). We are very grateful to the associate editor and an anonymous referee of this journal for their very detailed suggestions and comments. This research is financially supported by Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from JSPS and MEXT. The second author also acknowledges the financial support by Zengin Foundation for studies on Economics and Finance.     

农业产业化经营中利益相关者关系、目标选择与实现方式

本文指出,农业产业化经营的利益相关者是农业价值创造和价值实现的重要影响因素,正确处理好利益相关者关系,有利于保障和提升农业利益,有利于农业价值创造与农业价值实现,这包括农户与龙头企业、政府、中介组织、合作经济组织以及龙头企业与协会之间的关系。农业产业化经营要以产业运作过程商品化、利益分配合理化等方式,实现农业价值创造最大化和农业价值分配最优化的农业产业化目标。     

人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响

本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。     

Domestic financial market frictions,unrestricted international capital flows,and crises in small open economies

Summary. We present an example of a small open economy where small increases in the world interest rate may induce a sharp decline in output and a precipitous depreciation of the exchange rate. Due to a costly state verification problem in domestic credit markets, combined with unrestricted international capital flows, our economy generates two long-run equilibria, one with low GDP and a relatively depreciated real exchange rate (RER), and one with high GDP and a relatively appreciated RER. The first is always a saddle, while the second may be a sink or a source, depending on the level of the world interest rate. A crisis is identified with the economy switching from an equilibrium path approaching the high-output steady state to the saddlepath approaching the low-output steady state. In Mexicos recent history, periods of growth associated with appreciation of the RER have alternated with periods of sharp contraction and depreciation of the RER. Our economy displays such behavior in response to changes in the world interest rate.Received: 9 April 2002, Revised: 20 March 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F4.G. Antinolfi, E. Huybens: We thank Steve Fazzari, Tim Kehoe, Todd Keister, Manuel Santos, Karl Shell and especially Bruce Smith for very helpful discussions. Jaime Calleja Alderete, Eduardo Camero Godínez, and Juan Vargas Hernández provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are ours. Huybens was an assistant professor in the Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, at the time this article was written, and part of this work was completed while Antinolfi was a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not reflect those of the World Bank or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Correspondence to: G. Antinolfi     

城市土地价格波动对房地产业的影响——1999～2005年中国20城市的实证分析

本文利用1999～2005年间的数据对我国地价与房价的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明房价对地价有显著影响,地价对房价的影响度较小.在对地价与房价互动传导机制进行研究时,提出了3个传导路径,这些路径上的各个变量大都相互影响.通过分析我们还发现金融支持和土地政策在地价与房价变动中扮演着重要角色,抑制房价不能只控制土地价格,还应从金融支持、投资等方面着手,制定更严格的信贷制度,增加房地产交易税和提高居民可支配收入.本文的研究对于政府制定正确的货币政策和房地产业政策具有积极的参考意义.     

Joint outputs and real wage rates

The magnification effect in standard international trade theory asserts that if the relative price of the labor-intensive commodity increases, the real wage will also increase, as will the wage/rental ratio. This result depends upon the assumption that both activities are nonjoint—each combining labor and capital to produce a single output, so that if activities are joint instead, the results are in jeopardy. It is shown that if the difference between the share of commodity one produced in the first activity and in the second activity exceeds the difference between the labor distributive shares in the first activity and the second, an increase in commodity 1's relative price raises the wage/rental ratio. The real wage unambiguously rises in this case if and only if the ratio of the commodity output shares in the two activities exceeds the ratio of labor shares.